I. PERFORMANCE IN JANUARY 2012
1. Tourism development
January 2012 coincides with 09-day off on Tet Holiday so tourism activities had been vibrant nationwide. This is the season of festivals in Vietnam such as the Perfume Pagoda, Hung Temple... which attracted a large number of domestic and foreign tourists. On this occasion, the number of international visitors to Vietnam and domestic tourists increased sharply in major cities such as Hanoi, Ho Chi Minh City, Da Nang, Quang Ninh, Hue, and the tourist areas known as Da Lat, Nha Trang ... Especially in the Lunar New Year (from 21/1 to 28/1 (i.e. from 28th December to the 6thJanuary of Lunar New Year)), more than 51,000 tourists visited Hue relics (up 40% compared with the Tet Holiday in 2011), in which there were nearly 30,000 international visitors.
The number of international tourists to Vietnam has increased sharply, particularly the number of tourists coming by sea through Chan May Port in this month reached 6,000 guests, in which 4,260 ones came to Hue. Traveling by river, especially the connection of tourism spots between Phnom Penh and Siem Reap (Cambodia) is increasingly attractive to international visitors. Many foreign river carriers brought more ships, to increase trips on this route. In addition, the Emirates Airline company of the United Arab Emirates had a press release on the opening of direct flights to Ho Chi Minh City in an effort to expand its business in Southeast Asia since the date of June 4th.
In the festival this year, the Saigon tourist Travel Service company first time introduced a new tour to learn about atmosphere, custom of preparation for Tet in Mekong Delta, Northern and Central regions which has attracted many tourists which are mainly overseas Vietnamese.
The number of international tourists to Vietnam in January 2012 was estimated to reach 556,213 arrivals, up 9.8% over the same period in 2011. Most customer markets obtained the moderately good growth. Foreign visitors in January 2012 primarily came from: China, up 11%; Korea, up 12%; Japan, up 16%; U.S., up 8%; Taiwan, 8.5%, Australia, up 15%; Cambodia, up 21% ... over the same period last year.
In terms of traveling purpose, tourists for traveling and resting in 2011 increased by 16%, for business purpose down 10%, for visiting relatives up 70% over the same period last year.
In terms of transportation, visitors coming to Vietnam mainly by air, rise by 16%; by sea, down 12%; by road, up 8%.
2. Export and import of goods
2.1. Export
Estimated exports in January 2012 was US$ 6.5 billion, down 11.1% over last year’s same period, in which, exports of enterprises with foreign investment capital (excluding oil) is an estimate of US$3.7 billion. The reason was that the Lunar New Year in 2011 is in February, while it is in January in 2012 with long holiday.
As for exports of some main goods in January 2012 over the same period last year: crude oil was estimated to reach nearly 585 thousand tons, down 5.3% in volume and up 14.2% in turnover; coal 400 thousand tons, down 5.9% in volume and 41.3% in turnover; textile US$ 950 million, down 22.6%; footwear US$ 530 million, slightly down over the same period; rubber 80 thousand tons, up 8.1% in volume and down 29.4% in turnover; wood products US$ 300 million, down 12.8%; electronic components US$350 million, up 14%; aquatic products US$ 350 million, up 18 %; rice 250 thousand tons, down 53.4% in volume and 48.2% in turnover; coffee 130 thousand tons, down 39.5% in volume and 35.8% in turnover; cassava and cassava products 200 thousand tons, down 42.2% in volume and 46.6% in turnover ...
2.2. Imports
Import turnover in January 2012 was estimated at US$ 6.6 billion, down 18.7% over the same period last year. Imports of enterprises with foreign investment capital reached US$ 3.5 billion.
Import volume and turnover of some key commodities in January 2012 over the same period last year are as follows: petrol 600 thousand tons, down 43.9% in volume and 29.1% in turnover; steel 480 thousand tons, down 9.6% and 2.2%; fertilizer 170 thousand tons, down 38.8% and 34%; paper 70 thousand tons, down 28.6% and 23.3%; plastic materials 170 thousand tons, a slight decrease in volume and 15.9% in turnover; machinery and equipments US$ 900 million, down 29, 7% over last year’s same period; computers and components US$740 million, up 38.6%; canvas US$ 320 million, down 30.9%; textile materials US$ 150 million, down 20.6% ...
Trade deficit in January 2012 was estimated to be US$ 100 million, equaling 1.5% of export turnover.
3.Domestic market
3.1. Total turnover of retail goods and consumer service revenue
According to data from the GSO, the total turnover of retail goods and consumer service revenue (referred to total retail sales) January 2012 is estimated at about VND191,061 billion, an increase of 3.2% compared to December 2011 and 22% over the same period in 2011.
In the economic sectors participating in market, the individual economy accounted for the largest part of 49.66%, followed by the private and state sectors with the proportion of 34.84 % and 11.35%, respectively. The contribution value of foreign invested sector reached 2.94%, while the collective sector accounted for 1.21%.
3.2. Consumer Price Index
According to the GSO, consumer price index (CPI) in January 2012 increased by 1% compared to December 2011.
In which, only group of postal and telecommunication services had CPI slightly declined over the previous month (0.01%). Groups with a high rate of price includes: group of garment, headwear, footwear up 1.97%; housing and construction materials up 1.71%; group of culture, entertainment and tourism up 1%; group of food and catering services up 1.01%. The price increase of commodity groups were mainly caused by the people’ needs for Lunar New Year. The remaining groups increased, ranging from 0.02% to 0.96%.
3.3. The situation of supply - demand, prices of essential commodities
a) Petroleum
World market:
Crude oil prices on world market in the early haft of January 2012 was higher than the same period in December last year due to the stress of the Iranian nuclear issue, plus the positive economic news broadcasted from the U.S. and China – the two world's largest fuel consumer countries. By the second half of this month, crude oil prices has tended to fall. Closing session of January 30th, price of sweet light crude oil to be delivered in March declined by 78 cents, equaling 0.8%, to US$ 98.78/barrel on The New York Mercantile Exchange, the second consecutive down session.
Domestic market: Retail gasoline price remained stable.
According to preliminary data of the General Department of Customs, the import of petroleum in January 2012 was estimated to reach 600 thousand tons, worth about US$600 million, down 43.9% as compared to January of 2011.
b) Iron and steel
As of end of 2011, the total supply of steel for construction was estimated reaching 6.12 million tons, of which domestic production reached 5.45 million tons, down 14.3% as compared to 2010. The total demand reached about 5,62 million tons, of which domestic consumption was estimated to obtain 5.33 million tons. There was much volatile in steel price in 2011, especially strong increase in the early months of the year, and decrease trend in the last months of the year due to the impact of world prices of raw materials and seasonality.
According to preliminary statistics of the General Department of Customs, the volume of steel import in January 2012 reached 480 thousand tons, worth US$405 million, down 9.6% over the same period in 2011; in which imported bloom reached 18 thousand tons, worth US$11 million, down 82.9% over the same period in 2011.
c) Cement
End of 2011, total production of cement reached 49.63 million tons, consumption reached 49.24 million tons, export obtained about 0.5 million tons. In general, production and consumption of cement in 2011 had a slight decline of 2% over 2010. In terms of price: the price of cement in the year was higher due to the increase of raw materials price, as well as high power price, whereby the price of cement at the plants increased from 28-32% over 2010.
In the beginning of 2012, the cement industry continues to face many difficulties due to the unrecovered real estate market, the price of raw materials for the cement industry is likely to have complicated movement. However, the estimated supply of cement is still abundant, meeting domestic demand and surplus for export.
d) Fertilizer
The domestic fertilizer market in January 2012 and the Lunar New Year was in plateau. Price of fertilizers were generally stable and slightly reduced sometime, the amount of goods was low on the market.
Fertilizer market as forecast during the period after New Year and in 2012 is relatively stable and tends to decrease, because of abundant supplies from the manufacture of the projects Ca Mau and Ninh Binh fertilizer plant and alluvial after recent flood in the Mekong delta.
In January 2012, fertilizer import was estimated reaching 170 thousand tons with the value of US$ 70 million (of which 10 thousand tons of urea, worth US$ 5 million), down 38.8% over the same period in 2011 .
II. PROPOSED SOLUTION TO IMPROVE PERFORMANCE OF PLAN EXECUTIVE IN 2012
1. Development of tourism industry
For development of tourism industry, the following are needed:
- To encourage domestic and foreign investors to invest a whole package for tourist spots and areas with large, small and medium scale;
- To coordinate with ministries, sectors and related localities to integrate programs, projects to protect cultural and historical relics, ecological environment, entertainment associated with tourism, ... in tourism areas, parks and spots in order to promote human resources, improve the quality of tourism products to attract foreign visitors;
- To develop the system of hotels and restaurants, especially, 4-5 star hotels with international standard, focusing mainly on the tourism centers, the national tourism zones, the types of high-ranking, large scale hotels, to meet the diverse needs of tourists;
- To strengthen and rebuild entertainment areas in large-scale synthetic ways for foreigners traveling in Vietnam;
- To enhance integration, international cooperation, promote Vietnamese tourism; to effectively exploit the signed Agreement on tourism cooperation with other countries; to accelerate signing new agreements; to strongly promote the main markets allowed a visa exemptation; and to suggest to open more visa exemptation in some markets on the basis of strengthening investment, promoting in the main tourism markets in Vietnam, where is considered as safe and friendly destination;
- To strengthen and better implement spread and promotion of tourism in Vietnam as a friendly and safe place to international friends via mass media such as CNN, BBC, Discovery , ....
- To implement the tourism stimulus programs, such as discounts for tours which needs close coordination of the relevant units such as air transport, maritime, hotels and restaurants, ....
- To offer tourists traveling to Vietnam by sea, which is increasing and generally have high expenditure, supporting policies, special privileges for visa, on-shore time, the distance allowed to go further inland,…
- To reform the immigration policies, procedures for traveling cars across the border for tourists through this path to thrive.
2. A number of measures to monitor import-export in 2012
The measures to monitor import-export in 2012 include:
- To conduct effectively sectors’ development master plan, accelerate the progress of projects producing industrial exports to replace a number of agricultural or mineral products which has reduced and stable export production (rice, coffee, pepper, coal, crude oil ...) by new products such as mechanical, electrical wires and cables, electronic components, machinery ... and largely imported goods including paper, fertilizer, plated steel, textile and footwear materials, ...
- To develop supporting industries through policies to encourage the development of auxiliary industries, focusing on the textile, footwear, electronics, mechanics;
- To develop training programs, solving lacks and improving the quality of the workforce in some exporting industries facing workforce difficulties such as textiles, footwear, wood products, plastic products, mechanical products, electronics, ...
- To develop, review logistics services, setting up logistics cost reduction strategy to help improve the efficiency of import and export activities.
3. Domestic market development
3.1. General solutions
a. The measures to ensure the supply - demand of goods
The measures to ensure the supply-demand of goods are:
- To respond timely the evolution of the market, early and correctly predicting possible situations for well-timed and effective solutions;
- The provinces and cities to continue to implement measures in order to ensure supply sources, stabilize prices for the beginning of 2012;
- To tighten the management, market examination; timely and strictly handling violations in commercial activities;
- To well regulate market to ensure fair distribution of goods between regions, avoiding the lack of goods locally in some places, especially essential goods such as food, petroleum, iron and steel, ...
- To continue distributing goods to rural, secluded and remote areas to expand markets and strengthen market share of domestic goods;
- To further exploit production capacity and domestic demand, boost export to the markets;
- To accelerate the completion of investment projects to develop production of essential goods and put into operation, creating enough supply for market needs;
- To timely submit to the Government plan of providing food and other reserve means of seeking and rescue for the local authorities, especially the central provinces to support the timely redress of natural disasters, ensuring social security.
b. The measures to stabilize prices
The measures to stabilize prices include:
- To continue implementing seriously and drastically the Government's direction in Resolution 11/NQ-CP on 06 groups of measures to curb inflation, stabilize macro-economy and ensure social security in the last months of 2011;
- To continue conducting programs of stabilizing prices, especially in two major cities of Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh, which have the greatest weights in the whole country in calculating price index so their stabilization would contribute determinatively to price stabilization within the country;
- To continue expanding in the large cities, especially Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City, promotion and discount programs proven effective in recent periods in order to stimulate consumption and create motivations for domestic producers and distributors;
- To keep close control of information dissemination to detect and strictly handle cases launching false rumors, causing panic in people, creating bad price fluctuations, affecting target of Government to macroeconomic stabilization;
- To calculate the route of increasing the prices of commodities being inputs of the manufacturing industries such as petroleum, electricity and coal at the appropriate time following the market signals without causing pressure on prices for other goods;
- Ministry of Industry and Trade to coordinate with the related ministries, sectors and localities to direct drastically the state enterprises, to ensure no price increase; to check and urge regularly to detect and immediately resolve the violations;
- Ministry of Finance to coordinate with related ministries, sectors to research, adjust tax policy efficiently and promptly in order to stabilize prices, reduce trade deficit;
- To control the price registration, publicity of price, declaration of information about price; examine compliance of state laws on prices;
- To continue implementing measures to support enterprises in capital, market expand, administrative procedures ... to help businesses reserving goods, preparing enough goods for demands of the holidays;
- The line ministries to direct the corporations and enterprises to implement measures to reduce costs, improve productivity, decline cost norms which helps lower products’ prices;
- To continue promoting implementation of the campaign "Vietnamese prioritize Vietnamese products" by encouraging and supporting businesses to actively take their goods to the rural, remote areas in order to expand and establish solid market for locally-made goods.
3.2. Solutions for key commodities
The solutions for key commodities are:
a) For petrol
- Ministry of Industry and Trade to coordinate with the related units to inspect and supervise, ensure balance of petroleum supply-demand within the country;
- To continue promoting biofuel E5 trial nationwide, especially in rural areas.
b) For iron and steel
- To direct the state steel companies, encourage non-state companies to allocate appropriate production time for cost savings of electricity usage, setting up efficient distribution system, reducing intermediate steps to lower cost;
- To promote the export of steel;
- To develop technical barriers to limit the cheap and poor quality steel penetrating the domestic market.
c. For fertilizer
- To encourage enterprises actively preparing to ensure satisfying demand, preventing price hike, especially when entering the peak season;
- To strengthen transport capacity, ensuring the smooth supply for fertilizer between regions.
d) For cement
- To closely monitor world fertilizer prices for methods to regulate import and produce consistently, without the lack of fertilizer causing locally high prices, affecting agricultural production;
- To strengthen customs at borders, especially in the North to reduce smuggling of fertilizer by cross-border trade. /.