Vietnam’s economic situation in the first nine months of 2015 was in the context that the global market was volatile: the international commodity market, especially crude oil market, witnessed continuous and drastic price plummets mainly due to increased supply, which posed positive impacts on the growth of countries importing oil but had negative effects on the growth of countries exporting oil due to decreased export turnover. In addition, the biggest concerns in the last period about the volatility of the global financial market and devaluation of Renminbi, the official currency of China – the world’s second largest economy, posed the pressure of currency devaluation to most Asian countries in order to ensure their competitiveness in export markets. Moreover, money markets and stock markets in emerging economies have been put under high pressure owing to dramatic decrease in investment capital flows.

Regarding the domestic economy, oil prices in the country fell due to sharp plunge in the world oil prices, which directly affected the local economy and the State Budget. However, the oil price fall was also the opportunity for local production and business activities to reduce their input costs and product costs, thereby accelerating consumption in the society. Vietnam’s import and export were directly affected by the devaluation of Renminbi and currencies of other countries in the world. 

In response to complicated developments of the world economy, the Government drastically instructed the Ministries, branches and localities to comprehensively implement solutions, policies, especially fiscal and monetary policies, so as to ensure macroeconomic stability, improve production and business, maintain a reasonable growth rate. Following are implementation results of socio-economic indicators in the first nine months of 2015:

ECONOMIC GROWTH

GDP growth rate

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the first nine months of 2015 was estimated to climb by 6.50% YoY, of which the growth rate was 6.12% in QI, 6.47% in QII and 6.81% in QIII. Of the 6.50% growth of the entire economy, agriculture, forestry and fishery grew by 2.08%, contributing 0.36 percentage points; the industry and construction up 9.57%, contributing 3.12 percentage points; the service sector up 6.17%, contributing 2.38 percentage points.

In agriculture, forestry and fishery sectors, the forestry recorded the highest growth rate of 7.89% as against the same period in 2014 and contributed 0.06 percentage points to the overall growth due to the 11.8% increase in wood exploitation; the fishery rose by 2.11% and contributed 0.07 percentage points. Particularly, agriculture reported the lowest growth rate of 1.77% and contributed 0.23 percentage points because of unfavorable weather conditions, unstable prices and downward tendency of prices of several materials, leading to low rice output (Rice output in 2015 was estimated to reach 45.1 million tons, up 0.3% YoY only).  

In the industry and construction sector, the industry sector increased by 9.69% as against the same period a year earlier, much higher than the growth in the same periods in recent years[1], of which the processing and manufacturing industry recorded the growth of 10.15%[2], making a significant contribution to the overall growth (contributing 1.58 percentage points); mining soared by 8.15%. The construction industry surged by 9.00%, representing the highest growth rate over the last 5 years[3].

In the service sector, several business service industries witnessed YoY growth: Wholesale and retail and consumables repairing grew by 8.4% YoY; accommodation and catering by 3.83%; finance, banking and insurance by 6.7% (As at September 21, 2015, credit growth was 10.78% as compared to the end 2014); the real estate business industry was improved with an increase of 2.9%, higher than the 2.71% growth of the same period last year); non-business service industries saw a lower YoY growth because of personnel stability, cut in recurrent expenses, health and education service prices not widely adjusted, etc.

Regarding the structure of the economy in the first nine months of this year, the agriculture, forestry and fishery sector accounted for 16.30%; the industry and construction sector 33.09%; the service sector 40.52%; taxes on products net of subsidies on products 10.09%.

Concerning the use of GDP in this period, final consumption increased by 9.07% from the same period in 2014 and contributed 7.31 percentage points to the overall growth; accumulated assets by 8.08%, contributing 2.62 percentage points; balance of import and export reduced 3.43 percentage points of the overall growth. 

Agriculture, forestry and fishery

The production value of this sector at 2010 comparative prices in the first nine months of this year was estimated to reach VND590.6 trillion, 2.1% higher than the same period last year, of which agriculture gained VND432.4 trillion, up 1.8%; forestry VND20.4 trillion, up 7.8%; fishery VND137 trillion, up 2.2% respectively.

Agriculture

As of mid-September, the country cultivated 1,721.2 thousand hectares of winter rice, equal to 96.7% of the same crop last year,  of which the cultivated area was 1166.2 thousand hectares in the North, equaling 98.7%; 555 thousand hectares in the South, equal to 92.7%. The cultivated area of most localities decreased due to impacts of weather conditions. Besides, several localities converted part of rice fields to other annual crops for a higher economic value, of which the rice growing area decreased by 18.4 thousand hectares in Ben Tre; by 3.7 thousand hectares in Long An; by 2.7 thousand hectares in Son La; by 2.2 thousand hectares in Thanh Hoa; by 2 thousand in Soc Trang; by 1.8 thousand hectares in Hanoi; by 1.7 thousand hectares in Ninh Thuan, etc. At present, early winter rice crops in Northern localities are in the stage of maturing and are estimated to produce a yield of over 50 quintals/ha, exhibiting a slight increase as compared to the same period a year earlier; and an output of 5.8 million tons, down 1% (as the cultivation area decreased by 1.3%). If weather conditions in ending months of this year are favorable and there is no impact of pestilent insects, the country’s winter rice yield is estimated at 49.3 quintals/ha, 0.3-0.5 quintals/ha higher than the same period last year; winter rice production is estimated to reach 9.6 million tons, down 71.2 thousand tons as compared to the 2014 winter rice crop.

Along with the cultivation of the winter rice crop, localities across the country harvested the summer-autumn rice crop. As at September 15, 2015, Southern localities harvested 1736.1 thousand hectares of summer-autumn rice, equaling 96.5% YoY, accounting for 82.6% of the cultivation area, of which Mekong Delta provinces harvested 1519.5 thousand hectares of summer-autumn rice, equal to 97.9% and occupying 90.5%. The country’s cultivation area of the summer-autumn rice in this year was estimated to reach 2.1 million hectares, down 7.5 thousand hectares as compared to the 2014 summer-autumn rice crop hampered by hot weather and draught which resulted in the lack of irrigation water, of which Mekong Delta region cultivated 1677.8 thousand hectares, increasing by 9.5 thousand hectares (The cultivation area in An Giang rose by 4.1 thousand hectares; in Kien Giang by 10.6 thousand hectares; in Soc Trang by 4.9 thousand hectares). The summer-autumn rice yield was estimated at 54 quintals/ha, up 0.8 quintals/ha; the summer-autumn rice output reached 11.3 million tons, growing by 122 thousand tons, of which Mekong Delta provinces totaled around 9.1 million tons, up 183 thousand tons.

As of mid-September, Mekong Delta provinces cultivated 607.5 thousand ha of autumn-winter rice, equaling 103.9% of the cultivation area of the same period last year. The harvested area of autumn-winter rice was around 120 thousand ha. As estimated, the cultivation area of autumn-winter rice in 2015 reached 671.1 thousand ha; the autumn winter rice yield this year was equivalent to that of the previous year; the autumn winter rice output totaled approximately 3.5 million tons, up around 248 thousand tons.

Rice production in 2015 was estimated to attain 45.1 million tons, 140 thousand tons higher than that of 2014, of which the output of winter-spring rice reached 20.7 million tons, 158.8 thousand tons lower than that of last year; autumn-winter and summer-autumn rice 14.8 million tons, 370 thousand higher; winter rice 9.6 million tons, 71.2 thousand tons lower.

In general, the cultivation of other crops recorded poor results. As of mid-September, the cultivation area of maize across the country reached 1057.1 thousand ha, equal to 99.2% of the same period of 2014; sweet potato 123.1 thousand, equaling 95.3%; peanuts 193.8 thousand ha, equal to 95.8%; soybeans 98.9 thousand, equaling 91.3% and vegetables and bean 926.3 thousand ha, equal to 102.8%.

Perennials recorded a good output thanks to the increase in the area of perennials in the harvesting stage: The output of rubber in the first nine months of this year was estimated to reach 730 thousand tons, up 3.8% YoY; tea 828 thousand tons, up 2.5%; pepper 169.6 thousand tons, up 10%; cashew nuts 345 thousand tons, equal to 100%. The production of a number of fruit trees decreased due to hot weather, out-of-sean rain and hoarfrost, of which the output of banana fell by 1.7% YoY; longan by 1.3%; orange by 8% while the output of pomelo was up 0.6%; grapes up 30%.

Cattle raising in the first nine months of this year was relatively stable with no large epidemic disease. As of mid-September, the country's flock of buffaloes declined by 1% as against the same period a year before; oxen up 2%-2,5%. The output of live-weight buffalo meat for slaughter in the first nine months was down 1.9% YoY; the output of live-weight beef for slaughter surged by 2.4%. Pig raising developed in the direction of production of commodities with the model of large-size and highly-effective raising and is currently fairly favorable thanks to the stability of the output market. Flock of pigs nationwide soared by 2.5%-3% as compared to the same period last year; the output of live-weight pork for slaughter in the first nine months of this year grew by 3.7%. Poultry raising developed with the large size such as farms and household farms. Flock of poultry in September rose by 3%-3.5% as compared to the same period a year before; the output of poultry meat in this period climbed by 5.3%.

As of September 22, 2015, blue ear disease outbreak was controlled. Other diseases over the last 21 days in localities included HPAI in Vinh Long and Ha Tinh and foot and mouth disease in Nghe An, Binh Duong, Dak Lak and Soc Trang.

Forestry

The total concentrated afforestation area in the first nine months was estimated at 172 thousand hectares, representing a YoY increase of 4.2%. The number of dispersedly planted trees totaled 141 million, up 0.6%. Wood production in the first nine months reached 5834 thousand m³, an increase of 11.8% over the same period of 2014 as a result of stable domestic consumption and export markets. Some provinces posted high wood production, including Binh Dinh with 552 thousand m³, up 31.7%; Quang Ngai 515 thousand m³,  up 28%; Quang Tri 355 thousand m³, up 25%; Tuyen Quang 310 thousand m³, up 80%; Thanh Hoa 304 thousand m³, up 45.2%.

Forest protection continued to be prioritized with a series of fire prevention & firefighting measures being applied in order to minimize damages. However, due to prolonged heat, forest fires still occurred in some localities. In the first nine months, the destroyed forest area was 1712 hectares, down 53.9% from the same period last year, of which the burned forest area totaled 1055 hectares, down 65.5% while the destroyed forest area reached 657 ha, up 0.9%. Some localities reported high burned forest area, including Dak Lak with 275 hectares; Thanh Hoa 169 hectares; Ha Giang 156 hectares; Yen Bai 142 hectares. Some provinces recorded high destroyed forest area, including Dak Nong 256 hectares; Dien Bien 164 hectares; Lam Dong 131 hectares.

Fishery

Fishing production in the first nine months of the year was estimated at 4846.6 thousand tons, up 2.8% YoY, of which there were 3535.9 thousand tons of fish, up 3.2% and 570.5 thousand tons of shrimp, down 1.1%.

The aquatic production area in the first nine months was estimated at 1014.3 thousand hectares, down 0.4% YoY (Mekong Delta River recorded an aquatic production area of 732 thousand hectares, up 0.3%), mainly due to prolonged heat, complicated developments of epidemic diseases and sharp decrease in export demand, lower purchase prices while expenses for varieties, aquatic feed, veterinary drugs rose sharply. Aquaculture production in the nine months was estimated at 2584.2 thousand tons, up 1.6% as against the same period last year, including 1877.3 thousand tons of fish, up 2.3% and 450.6 thousand tons of shrimp, down 2.3%.

Tra fish farming tended to shift from small farming into concentrated farming under a linked and focused chain and applied processes according to VietGap standards. However, at present, Tra fish farmers still experience difficulties because tra fish materials prices remain low and tra fish exports are still subject to high tariffs. Only large-size fish farming enterprises which applied the linked model still maintained relatively-stable increase as they were proactive in terms of varieties and in seeking new markets. Tra fish farming area in this period was estimated at 11.2 thousand hectares, down 2.9% YoY, including Dong Thap with 1.6 thousand hectares, down 0.3%, An Giang with 1.1 thousand hectares, up 1.9%, Ben Tre with 0.6 thousand hectares, down 5.3%, Can Tho with 0.7 thousand hectares, down 4.9%, Vinh Long with 0.4 thousand hectares, down 8.2%. Tra fish output was estimated to attain 889 thousand tons, up 1.5% YoY, of which the Tra fish output of Dong Thap reached 286.4 thousand tons, up 0.7%; An Giang 224.6 thousand tons, up 3.9%; Ben Tre 131.5 thousand tons, up 1.8%; Can Tho 105.8 thousand tons, down 3.5%; Vinh Long 56.2 thousand tons, down 3.7%.

Shrimp farming also experienced various difficulties because shrimp prices on the market plummeted. In addition, prolonged hot weather great difference between day and night temperatures, complicated epidemic outbreaks affected shrimp farming in localities. White leg shrimp farming did not deliver high economic value as before because of low resistance to epidemic diseases and fierce competition in the market, which resulted in the fact that a number of white leg shrimp farmers shifted to giant tiger farming. The white leg shrimp farming area in the nine months was estimated at 76.3 thousand hectares, decreasing by 9.3% YoY, of which the white leg shrimp farming area in North Central Coast region reached 56.3 thousand hectares, a decrease of 11%. The white leg shrimp output was estimated at 228 thousand tons, down 4%, of which the white leg shrimp output in Mekong Delta region totaled 146.4 thousand tons, down 9.8% (including Soc Trang with 28.5 thousand tons, down 33.9%; Ben Tre with 28.1 thousand tons, down 17.6%; Tra Vinh with 14.1 thousand tons, down 19.2%; Bac Lieu with 14.9 thousand tons, down 3.3%); North Central Coast region 57.3 thousand tons, down 3.7%.

As estimated, the giant tiger shrimp farming area in the nine months of this year attained 577.3 thousand hectares, up 4.4% YoY, including Red River Delta region with 11.5 thousand hectares, down 1.9 %; North Central Coast region with 9.2 thousand hectares, up 2%; Mekong Delta region with 551.5 thousand hectares, up 4.1%. The giant tiger shrimp production was estimated at 189 thousand tons, down 1,6%, of which the giant tiger shrimp output of the Mekong Delta region reached 172.4 thousand tons, down 4.8%; the North Central Coast region 4.7 thousand tons, down 6.6%.

Fishing in localities benefited from favorable weather conditions. The increase in the number of altered and improved vessels and boats encouraged fishermen to go out to sea and stick to fishing. Fishing output in the first nine months was estimated at 2262.4 thousand tons, up 4.3% YoY, including 1658.6 thousand tons of fish, up 4.2%; 119.9 thousand tons of shrimp, up 3.6%; and 483.9 thousand tons of other sea products, up 4.6%. Tuna fishing posted good results, of which tuna output of Binh Dinh recorded 7.6 thousand tons, up 4.9%; Phu Yen 3.8 thousand tons, up 13.6%; Khanh Hoa 3 thousand tons, up 7%. 

Industrial production

The Index of Industrial Production (IIP) in September was estimated to soar by 10.1% YoY, of which mining went up 8.3%; processing & manufacturing up 10.3%; electricity generation and supply up 13.5%; water supply and waste & wastewater treatment up 8.8%. Generally, in the first nine months, the IIP increased by  9,8% YoY[4], much higher than the year-ago growth of 6.7%. Of the industries, the mining industry rose by 8.2%, contributing 1.8 percentage points to the overall growth; the processing & manufacturing industry by 10.2%, contributing 7.1 percentage points; the electricity generation and supply industry by 11.4%, contributing 0.8 percentage points; the water supply and waste & wastewater treatment industry by 7.3%, contributing 0.1 percentage points[5]. Concerning the use of industrial products, intermediate products (used for next production processes) increased by 9.7%; Products for final consumption grew by 9.9%, of which products used as means of production climbed by 12.9%; consumer products was up 8.5%.

Some secondary industries recorded a high production index in the first nine months as compared with the same period last year: Manufacturing of electronic products, computers and optical products surged by 44.1%; manufacturing of motor vehicles by 27.4%; leather and related products by 19.2%; textiles by 17.5%. Some industries posted higher growth, including manufacturing of rubber and plastic products, which jumped by 12.8%; production of non-metallic mineral products by 12.4%; production of beds, wardrobes, tables, chairs by 11.9%; electricity generation and supply by 11.4%; and metal manufacturing by 11.2%. Some industries posted low growth, including extraction of crude oil and natural gas, which increased by 8.8%; food processing and production by 7.9%; manufacturing of chemicals and chemical products by 6.7%; production of beverages by 6.2%; hard coal and lignite mining by 5.1%; production of paper and paper products by 4.9%; clothing production by 4.7%; production of medicines, drugs and pharmaceuticals by 4.3%; tobacco production by 3.5%.

In the first nine months of this year, some products recorded a high production index as compared with the same period of 2014: Mobile phone expanded by 50.5%; TVs by 45.5%; shoes and leather footwear by 24.1%; rolled steel by 20.1%; aquatic feed by 15.2%; powdered milk by 15.1%; fresh milk by 14.9%. Some products posted good growth: Production electricity rose by 12.3%; chemical paints by 11%; cement by 10.7%; crude oil by 10.7%. Some products recorded low growth or decrease: Commercial water increased by 6.2%; beer by 5.9%; processed aquatic products by 5.3%; coal by 5.1%[6]; casual clothes by 3.9%; cigarettes by 3.4% while crude steel fell by 0.2% and motorcycles dropped by 11.3%.

The IIP in the first nine months of the year as compared with the same period of 2014 of some localities are as follows: The IIP of Thai Nguyen soared by 243.7%; Quang Nam by 32.8%; Haiphong by 15.2%; Danang by 13.4%; Hai Duong by 10.1%; Binh Duong by 9%; Dong Nai by 8.2%; Hanoi by 7.7%; Ho Chi Minh City by 7.1%; Can Tho by 7%; Quang Ninh by 6.4%; Ba Ria - Vung Tau by 4.7%; Vinh Phuc by 3.3%.

The consumption index of the processing & manufacturing industry in August 2015 went up 1% so MoM and rose by 13.3% YoY. Generally, the index in the first eight months increased by 13,2% YoY. Some industries recorded a higher consumption index in the first eight months of this year:  Manufacturing of electronic products, computers and optical products jumped by 85.7%; manufacturing of motor vehicles by 27.5%; metal production by 23.7%. Some industries posted a low or decreased consumption index: Production of medicines, drugs and pharmaceuticals rose by 10.7%; manufacturing of electrical equipment by 8.8%; food processing & production by 8.3%; clothing production by 5.4%; beverage production by 5%; textiles by 3.8% while tobacco production industry’s consumption index fell by 0.5%.

The inventory index of the processing & manufacturing industry, as of September 01, 2015 surged by 9.9% YoY, of which some industries recorded an inventory index that was lower than the overall growth: Tobacco production increased by 5.1%; clothing production by 3.5%; Production of medicines, drugs and pharmaceuticals by 2.3%; manufacturing of rubber and plastic products by 0.3%. Some industries had a decreased inventory index: Manufacturing of chemical and chemical products reduced by 2.4%; production of electrical equipment by 8.1%. Some industries had an inventory index which was much higher than the overall growth: Manufacturing of electronic products, computers and optical products went up 118.4%; beverage production up 90.2%; leather and related products up 67.8%; food production and processing up 22.8%; manufacturing of motor vehicles up 21.7%.

The average inventory index of the processing & manufacturing sector in the first eight months of this year was 74%, with some industries recording a high inventory index: The inventory index of medicines, drugs and pharmaceuticals increased by 144.3%; chemical and chemical products by 114.3%; food production and processing by 100.6%.

The number of people working for industrial enterprises as of September 1, 2015 went up 7.1% YoY while the number of workers at State-owned enterprises increased by 0.2%; non-state enterprises by 4.9%; and FDI companies by 10.6%. By that time, the Labor Employed Index (LEI) at companies engaged in the mining industry dropped by 1.8% YoY while that of the processing & manufacturing industry was up 8%; the electricity generation and supply industry up 0.8%; water supply and waste & wastewater treatment up 4.4%.

The number of people working for industrial enterprises as of as of September 1, 2015 as compared with the same period last year in provinces and centrally-run cities with a large industrial scale is as follows: The number of people working for industrial enterprises in Thai Nguyen rose by 71.9%; Ba Ria - Vung Tau by 17.7%; Vinh Phuc by 17.1%; Quang Nam by 12.9%; Hai Duong by 11.5%; Binh Duong by 6.6%; Dong Nai by 5.5%; Da Nang by 4.6%; Ho Chi Minh City by 1.3%; Quang Ninh by 0.6%; Can Tho by 0.6% while that of Hanoi was down 0.6%.

Business activities^[i]

Business registration[7]

In September 2015 (from August 20 to September 20, 2015), there were 7042 new enterprises established nationwide with a registered capital of VND44.5 trillion and the average registered capital of a company was VND6.3 billion. As compared with the previous month, the number of newly established companies dropped by 24.3%[8] and the amount of registered capital was down 19.3% while the average registered capital of an enterprise increased by 6.6%. As compared with the same period last year, the number of newly founded businesses increased by 22.6%; the amount of registered capital surged by 45.9%. The number of employees of the newly established enterprises in September was 125.9 thousand, down 3.0% MoM.

In the month, as many as 1,515 companies throughout the country resumed their operations, up 11.5% MoM and 9,439 enterprises encountered difficulties and had to suspend their operations, up 24.3%, including 1,443 registered enterprises suspending their operations for a definite period and 7,996 companies were temporarily closed down waiting for closure of business codes or for non-registration; 672 enterprises completed dissolution & termination procedures, down 19.4%.

Generally, in the first nine months of this year, the country had 68347 newly-established companies with the total amount of registered capital of VND420.9 trillion, up 28.5% in the number of companies and up 31.4% in the amount of registered capital from the same period last year. The average amount of registered capital for a newly-established company reached VND6.2 billion, increasing by 2.3% YoY. In addition, the total additionally registered capital of companies which raised their capital was VND608.9 trillion in the first nine months of this year. As such, the total amount of newly-registered and additionally-registered capital into the economy in the nine months of 2015 was VND1029.9 trillion. The number of jobs created by the newly established enterprises in the first nine months was 999.3 thousand, up 25.7% YoY.

The number of enterprises which suspended and resumed their operations in this period was 12,848, representing a YoY increase of 8.2%. In general, the situation of companies entering the market in the first nine months of this year was clearly improved as compared with the same period last year, reflecting the efforts of the business community and the effectiveness of the solutions, directions and guidelines of the Government in improving the business and investment environment and removing difficulties for enterprises.

In the first nine months of the year, there were 6,962 enterprises which completed dissolution & termination procedures, reflecting a YoY decrease of 0.9% and most of them were small-scale businesses with a registered capital of less than VND10 billion (accounting for 93.5%). According to business types, among the enterprises which completed dissolution & termination procedures, there were 2,519 one-member limited liability companies (accounting for 36.2%); 1,897 two-member limited liability companies (occupying 27.2%); 1,510 private enterprises (making up 21.7%) and 1,036 joint-stock companies (representing 14.9%).

There were 47,604 enterprises encountering difficulties and being forced to suspend their operations in the first nine months of the year, up 15.3% from the same period last year, including 12,437 enterprises registered for suspension of their operations for a definite period of time and 35,167 enterprises suspending their operations and waiting for closure of company codes or without registration. Among the enterprises facing difficulties and being forced to suspend their operations, there were 17,183 one-member limited liability companies (accounting for 36.1%); 15,398 two-member limited liability companies (making up 32.3%); 9,284 joint stock companies (representing 19.5%); 5,738 private enterprises (occupying 12.1%) and 1 partnership.

Business trends of enterprises

According to the results of the survey on performance of business and production enterprises in QIII as compared to the previous quarter, 36.6% of enterprises said that the production and business situation was improved while 19.9% of enterprises showed difficulties and 43.5% of enterprises thought the production and business situation was stable. When forecasting the trend in QIV as compared with QIII, 46.8% of the businesses said that the trend would be better; 14.4% of the companies forecast the trend would become worse and 38.8% of the companies thought their production and business situation would be stable.

With regard to production volume, 40% of the companies assessed that their production volume in QIII increased from the previous quarter; 20.7% of the businesses said their production volume decreased while 39.3% of the enterprises thought the production volume was stable. When projecting the production volume in QIV against QIII, 49.2% of the companies forecast an increased production volume; 13.8% of the companies expected it to fall while 37.0% of the businesses said it would remain stable. 

With respect to production orders in QIII against QII, 34.2% of the enterprises reported a higher number of production orders; 19.8% of the companies posted a lower number of production orders while 46.0% of the businesses had a stable number of production orders. QIV’s trends were more optimistic than QIII’s with 43.6% of the companies expecting more orders; 12.7% the companies expecting fewer orders and 43.7% of the companies forecasting a stable number of orders.

Concerning export orders in QIII as compared with QII, 28.5% of the enterprises reported a higher number of export orders; 19.8% of the companies posted a lower number of export orders and 51.7% had a stable number of export orders. As much as 37.6% of the companies expected more export orders in QIV; 13.1% of the businesses forecast less export orders and 49.3% of the businesses projected a stable number of export orders.

As to production costs, 26.7% of the enterprises said that production costs per product in QIII increased against QII; 9.7% of the companies confirmed lowered costs and 63.6% of the businesses reported stable costs. When projecting QIV’ trends against QIII, 20.6% of the businesses expected increased production costs in QIV over QIII; 11.7% of the companies said that production costs would decrease and 67.7% of the companies forecast stable production costs.

Regarding product prices in QIII as compared with the previous quarter, as much as 15% of the companies recorded increased product prices; 12.7% of the enterprises had lower prices and 72.3% of the companies kept prices stable. When forecasting QIV’s trends, 16.1% of the companies expected higher product prices; 8.8% of the companies forecast lower prices while 75.1% of the enterprises had stabilized product prices.

As to product inventories in QIII of this year as compared with the previous quarter, 21.7% of the companies increased their inventories; 30.9% of the companies recorded reduced inventory levels and 47.4% of the companies reported stable inventories. When projecting QIV’s trends, 16.2% of the companies forecast higher inventories than QIII; 33.5% of the businesses expected reduced inventories and 50.3% of the businesses reported stable inventories.

With regard to material inventories in QIII as compared with QII, 19.7% of the companies reported increased material inventories; 28.4% of the businesses had reduced material inventories and 51.9% of them recorded stable material inventories. When projecting QIV’s trends, 14.9% of the companies expected higher material inventories; 30.7% of the enterprises forecast decreased material inventories while 54.4% of companies said that their material inventories would not fluctuate.

Service activities

Retailed sales of consumer goods and services

Total retailed sales of consumer goods and services in September were expected to reach VND270.6 trillion, up 0.6% as against the previous month and 9,7% compared to the same period last year, of which: retailed sales of consumer goods occupied VND207.9 trillion, up 1.9% and 11.8% respectively; sales from accommodation and catering services reached VND30.2 trillion, down 6.8% and up 2.7% respectively; sales from tour and travel attained VND2.7 trillion, down 9.9% and up 7.7%; sales from other services were VND29.9 trillion, an increase of 0.8% and 3.2% respectively. Generally, in September, total retailed sales of consumer goods and services were projected at VND2374.5 trillion, increased by 9.8% as against the same period last year (except for increased price of 9.1%, 73% higher than those of the same period in 2014).

In terms of the line of business, retailed sales of consumer goods in September were VND1802.9 trillion, equaling 75.9% of the total level and up 10.6% year on year, of which, some industries relatively increased: Foods and foodstuffs rose 15%; home appliances and equipment by 13.2%; garments by 10.9%; cultural and educational articles by 10.6% and travelling means by 8.1%.

Sales from accommodation and catering services in September reached VND276.9 trillion, occupying 11.7% of the total level and up 6.5% in comparison with the same period last year, of which sales of Hai Phong raised 23.9%; Binh Duong by 19.1%; Thanh Hoa by 18.6%; Hanoi by 5.9% and Ho Chi Minh City by 5.4%.

Sales from tour and travel in the first 9 months attained VND22.5 trillion, capturing 0.9% and up 0.5% compared to the same period of the previous year, of which sales from tour and travel of Ho Chi Minh City were up by 8.3%; Da Nang by 7.5%; Binh Dinh by 7%; Binh Thuan by 6% and Hanoi by 4.3%.

down 9.9% and up 7.7%; sales from other services were VND29.9 trillion, an increase of 0.8% and 3.2% respectively.

Sales from other services in the first 9 months were VND272.2 trillion, equaling 11.5% of the total level and up 9% year on year, of which in some areas, service sales increased as against the same period last year: Bac Ninh by 16.2%; Nam Dinh by 12.2%; Quang Binh by 10.7%; Hai Duong by 10.5%; Vinh Phuc by 9.9%; Quang Nam by 7%; Nghe An by 6.7%; Kon Tum by 4.8%; Lam Dong by 3.5%; Hau Giang by 3.5%; as for two large cities with relative growth rate: Ho Chi Minh City by 14.3% and Hanoi by 8%.

Passenger and cargo transportation

Passenger transportation in the first 9 months was at an estimation of 2434.1 million arrivals, up 7.5% and 105.7 billion passenger-kilometers, up 7.3$ year on year in 2014. Of which central transportation reached 25.6 million arrivals, increasing 1.2% and 26.9 billion passengers-kilometers, rising 5.7%; ; local transportation gained 2408.5 million passengers, adding 7.6% and 78.8 billion passengers-kilometers, up 7.9%. Estimated passenger transportation by road in the first 9 months achieved 2295.8 million passengers, up 7.8% and 79.5 billion passengers-kilometers, up 8.3% year on year; transportation by airway reached 14.2 million passengers, increasing 6.2% and 20.9 billion passengers-kilometers, rising 5.4%; transportation by railway achieved 8.6 million passengers, decreasing 6.6% and 3.2 billion passengers-kilometers, down 2.1%; transportation by seaway gained 4.2 million passengers, up 6.2% and 201.1 million passengers-kilometers, up 5.1%.

Cargo carriage in the first 9 months reached an estimate of 835.1 million tons, rising 5.8% and 166.7 billion tons-kilometers and increasing 2.8% from the last year’s same period. Of which the domestic transport gained 23.8 million tons, down 4.2% and 92.5 billion tons-kilometers, by 0.6%. Cargo transportation by road obtained 643.1 million tons, growing by 6.5% and 35.7 billion tons-kilometers, by 7%; transportation by river reached 143.4 million tons, up 3.9% and 28.5 billion tons-kilometers, up 4.5%; transportation by sea attained 43.4 million tons, up 3.8% and 99 billion tons-kilometers, up 1.1%; by rail: 5 million tons, down 5.4% and 3.1 billion tons-kilometers, down 2.1%.

     International visitors to Vietnam

In the first 9 months of the year, the number of international investors to Vietnam was estimated at 623.3 thousand investors, down 5.8% month on month and up 8.3% year on year. Of which visitors from most Northeast Asian countries decreased as against the previous month, solely visitors from Japan rose 7.9%; visitors from Southeast Asian countries increased month on month, solely visitors from Indonesia and Thailand fell. For visitors from America, including the U.S and Canada in September was significantly down compared to the previous month; of which the U.S by 12.2%; Canada by 24.3%. Visitors from most main markets in Europe in September reduced as against those in August, solely visitors from Finland and Russia increased 5.9% and 8.1% respectively.

Generally, in the first 9 months, international visitors to Vietnam were estimated at 5689.5 thousands arrivals, down 5.9% year on year, of which arrivals by air reached 4709.6 thousand, down 1.9%; by road 943.4 thousand, down 21.6%; by sea 36.5 thousand, down 18.8%.

In the first 9 months of this year, arrivals from Asian countries totaled 3842.1 thousand, down 5.9% from the same period last year, of which the number of visitors to Vietnam significantly decreased including China by 1260.6 thousand, down 18.2%; Cambodia by 168.2 thousand, down 43.5%; Thailand by 141.3 thousand, down 27.6%; Laos by 83.5 thousand, down 25.9%; Philippines by 72.6 thousand, down 9.1%. Visitors to Vietnam from some countries and territories recorded an increase: Korea by 810.7 thousand, up 31.4%; Japan by 498.5 thousand, up 2.6%; Taiwan by 330.2 thousand, up 8.4%; Malaysia by 250.5 thousand, up 3.3%; Singapore by 165.5 thousand, up 16.9%.

Visitors coming from European countries were estimated at 866.3 thousand, down 3.7% from the same period last year, while some European countries had fewer tourists to Vietnam, including Russia with 236.3 thousand, down 10.6%; France 157.8 thousand, down 3.8%; the UK 154.3 thousand, down 1.4%. Some countries recorded a higher number of tourists to our countries, including Germany with 105.9 thousand, up 2.1%; Netherland with 38.9 thousand, up 3.2%; Spain with 33 thousand, up 8.7% and Italy with 29,2 thousand, up 5.7%.

Visitors from Americas reached 446.3 thousand, up 5% from the same period last year, of which arrivals from the United States totaled 368.2 thousand, up 7%. Visitors from the continent of Australia to Vietnam were 252.6 thousand, down 7.1%, of which arrivals from Australia reached 228.5 thousand, down 7.2%.

MACROECONOMIC STABILIZATION, INFLATION CONTROL

Construction, development investment

Construction and investment activities from the beginning of the year had many improvements and achieved rather results. Some key factors impacted the growth of activities over the past few months. Investment promotion was enhanced; the price of petrol and oil was reduced so the cost of building materials was stable, creating favorable conditions for investors to hasten work progress of projects; financial and monetary policies continued to promote their effects, creating conditions for enterprises to access capital, expand and develop production and business. Such advantages help to promote the attraction and disbursement of investment capital, affecting the growth of the entire economy.

Construction

The production value of construction in the first 9 months at current prices was estimated to reach VND660.9 thousand, of which the state sector gained VND58 trillion, accounting for 8.8% ; the non-state sector generated VND561.4 trillion, making up 84.8%; and the FDI sector obtained VND41.5 trillion, accounting for 6.3%. Of the total production value, the production value of construction of residential buildings reached VND266.5 trillion; non-residential buildings by VND106.5 trillion; civil engineering works by VND214.8 trillion; specialized construction activities by VND73.1 trillion.

The production value of construction in the first 9 months at the price compared to 2010 was estimated at VND524.4 trillion, up 9.3% from the same period of 2014, including: VND47.2 trillion generated by the State sector, up 3.7%; VND444.1 trillion by the non-state sector, up 10.1%; VND33.1 trillion from the FDI sector, up 7%. Of the total production value, the production value of construction of residential buildings reached VND209.8 trillion, up 11.3%; non-residential buildings by VND84.8 trillion, down 4.5%; civil engineering works by VND170.6 trillion, up 21%; specialized construction activities by VND59.2 trillion, down 3.9%.

Development investment

The total realized social investment capital at current prices in the first 9 month of 2015 was estimated to reach VND909.5 trillion, up 8.5% from the same period last year and equal to 31.9% GDP, including: the non-state sector by VND355.4 trillion, accounting for 39.1% of the total and rising by 7.2% year on year, the non-state sector by VND345.1 trillion, making up 37.9% and rising 8.8%; the FDI sector achieved VND209 trillion, occupying 23% and adding 10.1%.

 Of the State sector’s investment capital, capital from the State budget in 9 months was estimated at VND153.1 trillion, equivalent to 72.7% of the annual plan and up 3.2% from the same period last year, and of which:

- The centrally managed capital reached VND30.5 billion, equivalent to 74.9% of the annual plan and up 0.1% from the same period of 2014, of which the investment capital realized by the Ministry of Transport totaled VND5057 billion, equal to 73.6% and up 9.4%; the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development by VND2195 billion, equal to 76.8% and down 5.1%; the Ministry of Construction by VND1269 billion, equal to 91.9% and down 4.2%, the Ministry of Health by VND1210 billion, equivalent to 76.5% and up 61.2%; the Ministry of Education and Training by VND589 billion, equal to 69.2% and up 22.7%; the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment by VND487 billion, equal to 70.9% and down 3.1%; the Ministry of Culture, Sports and Tourism by VND391 billion, equal to 66.7% and up 6%; the Ministry of Industry and Trade by VND289 billion, equal to 67.1% and up 12.9%; the Ministry of Science and Technology by VND235 billion, equal to 79.5% and up 14.1% and the Ministry of Information and Communications by VND147 billion, equal to 81.5% and down 7.8%.

The locally managed capital totaled VND 122.6 trillion, equal to 72.2 of the annual plan and up 5.2% year on year. Of the sum, the realized provincial State budget reached VND84.5 trillion, equal to 69.1% and up 6.2%; the district-level State budget capital by VND30.9 trillion, equivalent to 77.3% and up 3.8%; the commune-level State budget by VND7.2 trillion, equivalent to 96.8% and down 0.6%. The total realized capital from the State budget of some provinces and centrally-run cities is as follows: Hanoi reached VND16043 billion, equal to 79.6% of the annual plan and down 5.2$ year on year; Ho Chi Minh City by VND12073 billion, equivalent to 62.6% and up 4.8%, Nghe An by VND3640 billion, equal to 76.3% and up 5.4%; Binh Duong by VND3603 billion, equivalent to 72.6% and up 23.1%; Vinh Phuc by VND3378 billion, equal to 64.5% and up 19.5%; Quang Binh by VND3241 billion, equivalent to 45.6% and up 27.8%.

From the beginning of the year to September 20, 2015, the country recorded 1432 newly licensed FDI projects with the registered capital of USD11.04 billion, representing a 24.3% increase in the number of projects and 44.5% in the capital value from the same period of 2014. At the same time, 461 licensed projects were provided with additional capital of USD6118.7 million. Accordingly, the total registered capital of both newly and additionally registered projects reached USD17.16 billion, up 53.4% against the same period last year. In the first 9 months of the year, some projects with large scale were licensed: Duyen Hai Thermal Power Plant Project No.2 in Tra Vinh with newly-registered capital of USD2.4 billion; Samsung Display Vietnam Co., Ltd. project in Bac Ninh with additional capital of USD3 billion. The FDI capital realized in the first 9 months of the year was estimated at USD9.7 billion, up 8.4% against the same period of 2014.

In the first 9 months, the processing & manufacturing industry attracted FDI with the total registered capital of USD11369.5 million, accounting for 66.3% of the total registered capital; the electricity, gas, hot water, vapor and air conditioning production and distribution industries gained USD2619.2 million, making up 15.3%; the real estate business industry was USD1810.2 million, occupying 10.5% and the remaining industries by USD1358 million, making up 7.9%.

47 provinces and centrally-run cities recorded newly-licensed FDI projects in the first 9 months, including Tra Vinh with the highest registered capital of USD2526.8 million, accounting for 22.9% of the total newly registered capital, followed by Ho Chi Minh City with USD2192.9 million, accounting for 19.9%, Dong Nai with USD1298.3 million, making up 11.8%; Binh Duong with USD810.6 million, accounting for 7.3%; Hanoi with USD514.2 million, representing 7%; Tay Ninh with USD422.8 million, making up 3.8%; Hai Phong with USD309.2 million, occupying 2.8% and Vinh Phuc with USD271.4 million, accounting for 2.5%.

Of the 56 countries and territories having newly-licensed FDI projects in Vietnam in 9 months, Malaysia was the biggest investors with USD2426.6 million, accounting for 22% of the total newly registered capital; followed by the South Korea with USD1975.7 million, accounting for 17.9%, the UK with USD1267.6 million, making up 11.5%; Taiwan with USD757.6 million, accounting for 6.9%; the British Virgin Islands with USD660.9 million, making up 6%; Turkey with USD660.3 million, accounting for 6%; Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (China) by USD596.4 million, occupying 5.4%, Japan by USD554.2 million, making up 5% and Singapore by USD368.6 million, accounting for 3.3%.

State budget revenues and expenditures

Total State budget revenues from the beginning of the year to September 15, 2015 were an estimation of VND640.4 trillion, equal to 70.3% of the annual estimate; of which domestic revenues accounted for VND474.6 trillion, equal to 74.3%; revenues from crude oil by VND49.6 trillion, only representing 53.3% of the estimate due to reduced oil price; the state budget balancing revenues from export and import activities achieved VND112.8 trillion, equal to 64.5%. By adjusting the receipt policy with regard to some mineral resources and environmental protection tax policy imposed on petrol and oil products, in combination with implementing mechanisms, policies on production and business development assistance, the administrative reform of tax agencies so many domestic revenues relative reached, including revenues with the annual estimate completed: Taxes on industrial, commercial activities and non-state services by VND88.4 trillion, equal to 74%; personal income tax by VND40.7 trillion, equivalent to 79.3%; stamp duty by VND15.4 trillion, equivalent to 99.9%; environment protection tax by VND15.1 trillion, equal to 117.1%; revenues from land use by VND39.4 trillion, equaling 101%. However, some receipts with slow progress: Revenues from state enterprises sector gained VND145.1 trillion, equal to 65.7% of the annual plan; revenues from FDI enterprises (excluding crude oil) reached VND94.2 trillion, equivalent to 66.1%.

State budget expenditures from the beginning of the year were focused primarily on ensuring the implementation of key tasks and sudden demand arisen. The total State budget expenditures from the beginning of the year to September 15, 2015 were estimated at VND776.4 trillion, equal to 67.7% of the annual estimate, of which spending on investment and development was VND116.6 trillion, equivalent to 59.8% (capital construction investment only was VND113.2 trillion, representing 59.4%); spending on socio-economic cause development, defense, security and administrative management attained VND542.8 trillion, equal to 7.8%; spending on debt and ODA repayment was VND110.4 trillion, equivalent to 73.6%.

Banking, insurance activities

As of September 21, 20158, the credit growth reached 10.78% compared to the late year of 2014, this growth rate was the highest since 2011; capital raised from credit institutions increased 8.9%; the total means of payment increased 8.88%. The liquidity of the commercial banking system continued being improved, ensuring the liquidity and creditworthiness of the payment. The average exchange rate of Vietnam dong against US dollar robustly changed with flexible adjustment rates over unusual movements of the Chinese and world currency market.

Insurance market in the first 9 months of 2015 recorded satisfactory signals with the increased rate of life insurance premium revenues of over 30% and the increased rate of non-life insurance premium revenues of over 12%. Over the past few months, insurers had many efforts in supplying markets with new insurance product packages and attractive benefits for customers. Mechanisms, policies in insurance activities were increasingly completed and more appropriate to all participants.

Export and import of goods

Export of goods

Export turnover of goods in August totaled USD14.5 billion, USD19 million lower as compared with the estimate.  Export turnover of goods in September was estimated at USD14.2 billion, 1.9% lower as against the previous month, of which the export value of domestic sector reached USD4.1 billion, down 0.9% while the export turnover of FDI sector (including crude oil) totaled USD10.1 billion, down 2.4%.

Export turnover of some commodities in September decreased as against the previous month: vegetation articles by 24.2%; coal by 22.8%; iron and steel by 15.8%; petrol and oil by 14%; footwear by 13.5%; garment and textile by 4%. In comparison with the same period of 2014, export turnover of goods in September 2015 increased 12.8%, of which domestic economic sector by 2.3%; FDI sector (including crude oil) by 17.7%.

Generally in the first 9 months, export turnover was estimated at USD120.7 billion, up 9.6% year on year. In case of excluding price factor, export turnover in the first 9 months reached USD125.5 billion, up 14% from the same period last year and higher than the 5% increase achieved in September 2014. Of the total export turnover in the first 9 months, domestic economic sector was at an estimation of USD

35.5 billion, occupying 29.4% of the total export turnover and down 2.7% year on year; the FDI sector (including crude oil) reached USD85.2 billion, making up 70.6% and up 15.8%. If the crude oil was deducted, this sector achieved USD82.1 billion, accounting for 68.1% of the total export turnover and up 21.1%.

Some main items had highly increased turnover compared to the same period of the previous year: Telephones and accessories reached USD23.2 billion, up 34.3%, garments and textiles by USD 17.1 billion, up 10.6%, electronic products, computers and components by USD11.4 billion, representing an increase of 52.8%; footwear by USD8.8 billion, up 18.4%; machinery, equipment and components were USD5.8 billion, up 9.8%, wood and wooden products gained USD4.9 billion, up 9.1%, handbags, suitcases, hats and umbrellas by USD2.2 billion, up 15.6%; cashew nuts by USD1.8 billion, up 20.6%. Some items reduced in quantity and export turnover: coal by 77% in quantity and 67.1% in turnover year on year; coffee by 30.5% and 31.6%; rice by 8.7% and 14.3%; iron and steel by 7.3% and 15.6%; tea by 7.2% and 6.5%. Crude oil export only, even if increased 4.7% in quantity but decrease 47% of turnover (equivalent to USD2.7 billion).

Regarding the structure of exports, mineral and manufacturing industry products were estimated to reach USD55.4 billion, occupying 45.9% of the total export turnover (occupying 42.1% as compared with the same period of 2014) and up 19.7% over the same period of the previous year, of which telephones and accessories accounted for 19.2% (15.% as compared with the same period), robustly increasing up 34.3%; electronic products, computers and components by 9.5% (6.8% as compared with the same period of 2014), up 52.8%. So, the increase level of electronic products, computers, telephones and accessories (accounting for 28.7% of export turnover) mainly contributed to the growth of this item group. Light industry goods and handicrafts reached USD47.8%, making up 39.6% (40,4% as compared with the same period of 2014) and up 7.3%. Notably, the export value of agricultural, forestry products and aquatic products decreased, of which agricultural, forestry products attained USD12.8 billion, occupying 10.6% of the total export turnover (12.3% in the same period of 2014), down 5.6% as against the same period of the previous year (coffee and rice significantly reduced in quantity and value); aquatic products reached USD4.7 billion, making up 3.9% (5.2% as compared with the same period last year) and down 17%.

Concerning export markets in the first 9 months, the United States continued to be the largest export market of Vietnam with an export turnover of USD24.9 billion, up 19.6% over the same period of 2014, including the highly increased export of some key commodities: garments and textiles by 12.9%; footwear by 27.7%; telephones of kinds and accessories by 109.6%. Followed by EU with USD22.8 billion, up 12.4%; of which, telephones of kinds increased 20.1%; footwear by 14.2%; computers and components by 53%. ASEAN reached USD13.8 billion, down 1.7%, of which telephones decreased 3%; crude oil by 12.1%, iron and steel by 11.7%. China reached USD12.5 billion, up 12.5%, of which computers and components rose 31.3%; fiber by 17%; manioc and products from manioc by 35.8%; rice by 9%. Japan attained USD10.5 billion, down 4.9%, of which means of transport and spare parts decreased 6.9%, aquatic products by 11.4%. Korea was estimated at USD6.3 billion, up 20.5%, of which telephones grew 244.5%; computers by 91.2%, wood and wooden products by 3.2%.

Export value in the first 9 months of 2015 continued showing larger and larger dependence on processing and erection. If 05 main item groups were not included (garments and textiles, leather footwear, handbags, backpacks, electronic products, computers and components), export value in the first 9 months of the year decreased 4.2% year on year.

Import of goods

Import turnover realized in August was USD14.1 billion, USD466 million lower than the estimate, of which import value of machinery, equipment and other components was USD466 lower, cloth was USD125 million lower and petrol an oil were USD103 million lower.

Import value in September was estimated at USD14.3 billion, up 1.2% from the previous month, of which the domestic sector’s import turnover reached USD5.9 billion, down 0.7%; while the FDI sector’s export value totaled USD8.4 billion, up 2.6%. Import value in the month of some products increased as against the previous month: Machinery, equipment and other components by 10.9%; animal feed and raw materials by 6.2%; plastic products by 4.6%; cloth by 3.2%; cotton by 11.8%. As compared with the same period last year, the import value in September raised 9.9%, of which the domestic economic sector increased 12.6%; FDI sector by 8%.

Generally in the first 9 months, import turnover was estimated to reach USD124.5 billion, up 15.9% from the same period of 2014, of which the domestic economic sector achieved USD51.3 billion, representing an increase of 9.7%; the FDI sector gained USD73.3 billion, up 20.7%. If the price factor was excluded[11], import turnover in the first 9 months was at an estimation of USD130.4 billion, up 21.4% year on year, much higher than a 14.1 increase of September 2014.

In the first 9 months of this year, import turnover of some commodities for processing, erection and production significantly increased as against the same period last year: Machinery, equipment and other components were estimated at USD20.9 billion, up 30.2%; electronic products, computers and components achieved USD17.3 billion, up 31%; telephones and accessories of kinds by USD8.1 billion, up 33.6%; cloth by USD7.5 billion, up 8.7%; iron and steel by USD5.8 billion, up 7.2%; automobile by USD4.3,, up 71.6%, of which completely built-up automobiles reached USD2.1 billion, up 113.2%, garment and textile material accessories and footwear by USD3.8 billion, up 9%; other normal metals by USD3 billion, up 21.5%; plastic products by USD2.8 billion, up 22.8%; cotton by 44.2% in quantity and 17.1% in turnover, equivalent to 248 thousand tons and USD191 million; means of transports and accessories by 243.96% in turnover, equal to USD1.4 billion due to import and aircraft lease and purchase. Some commodities with the decreased import turnover as against the same period: Plastics reached USD4.3 billion, down 6.7%; petrol and oil by USD3.9 billion, down 36.2%; chemicals by USD2.4 billion, representing a 1.8% decrease; wood and wooden products by USD1.7 billion, down 5%; fiber by USD1.1 billion, down 1.6%.

Regarding the structure of imports, in the first 9 months, the import turnover of means of production group was estimated at USD113.5 billion, up 17% as compared with the same period of 2014 and occupying 91.1% of the total import turnover (90.4% as compared with the same period of 2014), of which import value of machinery, equipment were estimated at USD51.7 billion, up 28.3% and making up 41.5%, up 4% points as against the same period of 2014; material groups reached USD61.8 billion, up 8.9% and occupying 49.6%, down 3.3% points. Import value of article and consumption groups in the first 9 months gained USD11.1 billion, up 7% and accounting for 8.9% of the total import turnover, 9.6% lower than the turnover of the same period of 2014.

Concerning import markets, China continued to be the largest import market of Vietnam with an import turnover estimated at USD36.8 billion, up 18.1% over the same period of 2014, of which machinery, equipment import increased 21.5%; telephones of kinds by 18.8%; cloth by 12.6%. Followed by Korea with USD20.9 billion, up 32.4%, of which computers and components rose 42.4%, machinery, equipment by 77.8%, telephones by 87%. ASEAN reached USD17.6 billion, up 3.3%, of which machinery and equipment raised 14.8%; chemicals by 16.7%, electrical appliances by 44%, Japan gained USD10.9 billion, up 19%, of which machinery and equipment grew 39.5%, computers and component by 45.2%, iron and steel by 9.6%. EU reached USD8.1 billion, up 23.3%, of which machinery and equipment increased 18.9%; means of transport by 303.9%; pharmaceuticals by 16.3%. The US reached USD6.1 billion, up 32.4%, of which computers rose 86.2%; machinery and accessories by 25.4% and cotton by 51%.

Trade deficit in September was estimated at USD100 million. Generally in the first 9 months, trade deficit was USD3.9 billion [12], equal to 3.2% of the total export turnover, of which the domestic sector’s deficit totaled USD15.8 billion (USD4.1 billion as against the same period of 2014); the FDI sector continued making export surplus of USD11.9 billion (USD3.7 billion as against the same period). As for China’s trade deficit in the first 9 months was USD24.3 billion, representing a robust increase of 21.3% over the same period of 2014. Impacts from the adjustment of China’s and Vietnam’s exchange rate have not been expressly indicated in the results of export and import in the first 9 months, but it may be affected and China’s trade deficit may continue increasing highly.

 Price Index

Consumer price index (CPI)

Consumer price index (CPI) in September 2015 decreased 0.21% month on month, it was the only September of 10 recent years with reduced CPI[13], which was mainly due to petrol and oil prices adjusted down as at August 19 and September 03, 2015; and gas price adjusted down as at September 01, 2015. In addition, due to the weather changing to the Autumn, the demand for power use is lower than that of the previous month decreased the price index of living electricity.

Among goods and services, traffic group significantly fell at 3.17%; housing and construction materials by 0.68%; restaurant and catering services by 0.13% (food prices reduced 0.24% due to plentiful supply sources and rice export falling into difficulty situation; foodstuffs by 0.14%; non-domestic restaurants and catering services by 0.02%); posts and telecommunications by 0.07%. Other some groups of goods and services recorded a highly increased CPI growth rate, including: education by 1.24%, mainly due to increased tuition and demand for books and notebooks, increased learning tools for new school year, medicines and health services by 0.43% due to health service price in some provinces adjusted up; garments, hats, footwear by 0.21%; drinks and tobacco by 0.1%, equipment and household appliances by 0.07%; culture, entertainment and tourism by 0.18% in 25 provinces and centrally-run cities;

CPI in September 2015 increased 0.4% as compared to December 2014 and was the lowest increase in 10 recent years[14]. Average CPI of the first 9 month of the year went up 0.74% year on year.

Generally, CPI in the first 9 months was relatively low. It was caused by the following main factors: (1) Supply sources of foods and foodstuffs were plentiful but the rice export situation of our country met difficulties causing wholesale and retail prices down; (2) the prices of essential commodities in the world were relatively stable, of which the price of fuel, iron and steel in the world market have significantly decreased, recently; (3) the price adjustment level of some commodity groups managed by the State such as education and health services is lower than that of the previous years; (4) Ministries, sectors and areas actively and effectively deployed Decree No.01/NQ-CP dated January 3, 2015 by the Government regarding key tasks, solutions guiding the implementation of socio-economic development plans and the State budget estimate of 2015.

Basic inflation in September 2015 grew 0.06% month on month and increased 1.87% year on year. Average basic inflation in the first 9 months of 2015 climbed 2.15% on average as against the same period of 2014.

Gold and USD price index

Gold price index of September 2015 increased by 3.54% as compared to the previous month; decreased by 1.58% as compared to December 2014; reduced by 5.83% as compared to the same period of previous year. USD price index of September 2015 increased by 2.71% in comparison with the previous month; got a 5.1% raise as compared to December 2014; and increased by 5.9% as compared to the same period of previous year.

Producer Price Index

Producer's price index of agricultural, forestry and fishing products of the first 9 months of 2015 got a raise of 0.45% as compared to the same period of previous year (The first quarter up 2.05%; The second quarter up 0.23%; The third quarter reduced by 0.91%), of which price index of agricultural products increased by 1.29% ; price index of forestry products increased by 4.54% and  price index of fishing products decreased by 2.86%. Producer's price index of industrial products got a decrease of 0.74% as compared to the same period of the year 2014 (The first quarter up 0.15%; The second quarter down 0.36%; The third quarter reduced by 0.78%), of which  price index of mining products decreased by 10.8% ; price index of manufacturing products decreased by 0.01% ; producer’s price index of electricity and distribution increased by 4.63% ; producer’s price index of water supply ; sewerage and remediation increased by 2.19%.

Price index of materials, fuel used for production of the first 9 months of this year raised by 1.8% as compared to the same period of previous year, of which the highest increase belongs to the Machinery and equipment n.e.c with an increase of 4.76% (The first quarter up 3.77%; The second quarter up 3.98%; The third quarter up 6.55%); mining got an improvement of 3.22% (The first quarter up 2.35%; The second quarter up 3.88%; The third quarter up 3.46%); water supply, garbage, sewage treatment got a raise of 3.21% (The first quarter up 3.99%; The second quarter up 2.95%; The third quarter up 2.7%); processing, repair and installation of machinery and equipment grew by 3% (The first quarter up 2.78%; The second quarter up 3.62%; The third quarter up 2.59%); agricultural, forestry and fishery products got a raise of 2.96%  (The first quarter up 3.46%; The second quarter up 3.74%; The third quarter up 1.7%); food products, beverage and tobacco got an improvement of 2.17% (The first quarter up 3.12%; The second quarter up 1.8%; The third quarter up 1.58%); rubber and non-metal products rose by 1.41% (The first quarter up 1.84%; The second quarter up 1.49%; The third quarter up 0.9%); processed wood, paper and paper printing grew by 1.21% (The first quarter up 1.05%; The second quarter up 1.37%; The third quarter up 1.23%)

Transportation and warehouse price index ofthe first 9 months of 2015 ran down by 2.89% in comparison with the same period of 2014, mainly due to the sharp decrease of 5.81% (The first quarter down 3.18%; The second quarter down 6.67%; The third quarter down 7.53%) of freight of railway and road transport services. Other transport services the freights of which increased or decreased: Warehouse and transport service activities got a raise of 1.24%; waterway transport reduced by 1.76%; particularly, aviation transport was stable.

Service production price index of the first 9 months of 2015 decreased by 1.34% as compared to the same period last year, of which only service price index of accommodation and foodstuff up 2.96%; information and communications up 0.42%; education and training up 5.5%; health and social benefits up 2.05%; professional, scientific, technology operations up 1.83%; administrative and supporting activities up 1.63%.

Merchandise Import and Export Price Index 

Merchandise export price index of the first 9 months of 2015 decreased by 3.86% in comparison with the same period last year, of which price index of some merchandise decreased strongly: Crude oil down 51.31%; Petroleum oil, refined down by 48.49%; rubber down 25.68%; machinery, apparatus, accessory down 17.65%; coal down 9.55%.

Merchandise import price index of the first 9 months of 2015 decreased by 4.5% in comparison with the same period of 2014, of which price index of some merchandise decreased strongly: Liquefied petroleum gas down 41.59%; Petroleum oil, refined down 38.4%; rubber reduced by 17.32%; iron and steeldown 17.65%; Animal feed and materials down 9.55%, fibers, yarns down 8.61%.

Commodity term of trade ^[15] of the first 9 months of this year increased by 0.67%  as compared to the same period last year, of which commodity term of trade of fishing products up 4.63%, iron and steel up 7.53% and wood and articles of wood up 4.98%.

SOMESOCIAL ISSUES

Labor and employment

The number of laborers aged 15 or more across the country as of October 01, 2015 was estimated at 54.32 million, 11.7 thousand higher than the same period of 2014, including 28.12 million male workers, accounting for 51.77% and 26.20 million female employees, making up 48.23%. Regionally, the number of laborers aged 15 or more in urban areas was 16.87 million, accounting for 31.06% and rural areas was 37.45 million, occupying 68.94%.

The number of laborers in the working age as of the above time was estimated at 47.78 million, increasing by 9.3 thousand as compared to the same period last year, including 25.75 million male workers, accounting for 53.9% and 22.03 million female employees, making up 46.1%. The labor force in the working age in urban areas totaled 15.38 million people, accounting for 32.19% and in rural areas reached 32.40 million people, making up 67.81%.

The number of employed people aged 15 or more in the first 9 months of this year was estimated at 52.72 million people, down 177.3 thousand as compared to the same period last year including 23.35 million people working in the ​​agriculture, forestry and fishery industry, decreasing by 1523.7 thousand, accounting for 44.3%; 11.85 million in the industry and construction sector, increasing by 756.4 thousand, making up 25.5%; 17.52 million people in the service sector, up 592 thousand,  accounting for 33.2%.

The unemployment rate of people in the working age in these 9 months was estimated at 2.36% (2.43% of the first quarter; 2.42% of the second quarter; 2.24% of the third quarter), where the unemployment rate in urban areas was 1.86% (3,43% of the first quarter; 3,53% of the second quarter; 3,31% of the third quarter)and in rural areas was 1.86% (1.95% of the first quarter; 1.91% of the second quarter; 1.73% of the third quarter).

The unemployment rate of young people (15-24 years old) in these 9 months was estimated at 6.74% (6.6% of the first quarter; 6.68% of the second quarter; 6.9% of the third quarter), where the unemployment rate of youngsters in urban areas was 11.52% (10.95% of the first quarter; 11.84% of the second quarter; 11.7% of the third quarter) and in rural areas was 5.05% (4.99% of the first quarter; 4.91% of the second quarter; 5.23% of the third quarter).

The unemployment rate of people aged 25 or higher in these 9 months was 1.25% (1.41% of the first quarter; 1.3% of the second quarter; 1.03% of the third quarter), where the unemployment rate of people aged 25 or higher in urban areas was 1.86% (1.99% of the first quarter; 1.92% of the second quarter; 1.67% of the third quarter) and in rural areas was 0.96% (1.13% of the first quarter; 1.02% of the second quarter; 0.72% of the third quarter).

Estimated underemployment rate of laborers within the working age in these 9 months was 1.93% (2.43% of the first quarter; 1.8% of the second quarter; 1.52% of the third quarter), of which it was 0.92% for urban areas and 2.4% for rural areas.

Despite highlaborforce participation rate and low unemployment rateof our country, the number of laborers in non-official, non-agricultural household employment [16] is relatively high. In the third quarter of 2015, the non-official, non-agricultural household employment rate of the whole country was estimated at 54.4% of the total laborers in non-agricultural household sector, where the non-official, non-agricultural household employment rate in urban areas was 47.1% and it was 64.5% in rural areas.

People’s life and social security

In September, the country had 3.7 thousand households suffering from food shortage, down 64.8% from the same period of 2014, corresponding to 17.2 thousand hunger persons, down 62.6%. Generally, in the first 9 months of 2015, the country had 227.8 households suffering from food shortage down 25% YoY, corresponding to 938.7 thousand hunger persons, down 27.3%. To overcome the problem, from the beginning of the year, all administrative levels, branches and organizations from the central to locality provided difficult households with 19.2 thousand tons of food and VND8.5 billion; particularly 620 thousand tons of foodin September. The poverty rate of 2015 was estimated at 7.2%, down 1.2% as compared to 2014.

According to preliminary reports, total expenses for social security and poverty reduction activities in the first 9 months of 2015 were VND3,443 billion, of which VND2,179 billion for visiting and supporting policy beneficiaries; VND940 billion for supporting poor households and VND324 billion for famine relief and other social relief. In addition, over 7.7 million medical insurance cards were provided free of charge to policy beneficiaries in the whole country.

Education and training

At the end of the 2014-2015 school year, the country had 14,203 preschools; 15,277 primary schools; 10,878 secondary schools; 2,767 high schools; 208 ethnic minority boarding high schools; 876 ethnic semi-boarding high schools and 726 centers for continuing education at provincial and district levels.

By September 2015, 32 out of 63 provinces and municipalities of the country were qualified for preschool education universalization for children aged 5; 63 out of 63 provinces and municipalities of the country were qualified for primary school education universalization for children at the right age, of which 10 provinces/ municipalities of the country were recognized for primary school education universalization for children at the right age at the second level.

According to the Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey 2014 on Women and Children in Vietnam(MICS5), the rate of children going to preschools reached 96.8%; the rate of children at primary school age (6-10 years old) going to school at the right age was 97.9%; the rate of not going to primary schools was 1.5%. The rate of children at secondary school age (11-14 years old) going to school at the right age was 90.4%; the rate of not going to secondary schools was 6.0%. The rate of students completing the high school education was 90%. The rate of children at high school age (15-17 years old) going to school at the right age was 70.7%; the rate of not going to high schools was 24.1%.

According to preliminary reports, as of the beginning of the 2014 - 2015 school year, the country had 1005.7 thousand contestants taking the national high school final exam. The rate of students graduating from high schools this year reached 93.4%, down 5.3 percentage points as compared to the previous schoolyear; the rate of students graduating from continuation high schools reached 70.1%, down 18.9 percentage points.

At the end of the 2014-2015 schoolyear, the country had 554 thousand students graduating from universities, colleges, including 353.9 students graduating from the university system and 200.1 thousand students graduating from the college system.The number of students graduating from public universities and colleges was 470.1 thousand, accounting for 85% of total graduates.

At the beginning of 2015-2016 school year, there were over 4.5 million children attending preschool; 15.2 million school students, including 7.6 million primary school students; 5.2 million secondary school students and 2.4 million high school students.

Culture and sports

For the first 9 months of this year, many large-scale cultural events are organized at the localities: Celebrating 40 years of complete liberation of the South, reunification of the country; 125th birthday of President Ho Chi Minh; 70 years of the August Revolution and National Day 2nd September; The 27th National Artistic PhotoExhibition in Hai Phong; the 2nd Asia Pacific Poetry Festival; The 21st Southern Traditional Music Amateur Festival in Long An; The WorldHeritage Photo Exhibition in Thanh Hoa; The 8th International Artistic Photo Contest in Vietnam; The 2015 Traditional Music Festival of ASEAN Countries; The Photo Exhibition “ASEAN - 48 Years of Peace, Development and 20 Years of Vietnam’s Participation in ASEAN” ...

The mass sports movement ebullient took place in all localities with a rich variety of activities: Olympic Running Day for Health for the Entire Population; Sports Contest of Ethnic Minorities in Region II in Kon Tum; The 3rd National Ethnic Wrestling Talent Contest in Hanoi; The Traditional Martial Art Contest of National Outstanding Athletes for LetsViet Championship Title in Ho Chi Minh City; The 2015 Danang International Marathon Contest; The 2015 Hanoi Open Bicycle Race; The 2015 National Family Sports Contest; The 13th Phu Dong Games - Milo Cup Football Contest...

In high achievement sports activities, Vietnam’s sport delegation won 312 gold medals, 233 silver medals and 182 bronze medals at the regional and international sports tournaments. In particular, in the 28th Southeast Asian Games, Vietnam ranked the 3rd among 11 participating countries with 73 gold medals, 53 silver medals and 60 bronze medals, breaking 13 SEA Games records.

Situation of epidemic diseases, food poisoning

In September, the country has 3.5 thousand cases of hand, foot and mouth disease; 64 cases of encephalitis virus; 47 cases of typhoid; 16 cases of meningitis caused by meningococcal. Particularly dengue tends to increase, especially in the Southern provinces. In September more than 10 thousand cases of dengue, including 6 deaths.

Generally in the first 9 months of this year, the whole country has more than 29 thousand cases of hand, foot and mouth disease (4 deaths); 32.9 thousand cases of dengue (18 deaths); 720 cases of encephalitis virus (21 deaths); 289 cases of typhoid; 88 cases of meningitis caused by meningococcal (3 deaths). Since the beginning of this year,no case of cholera incidence and influenza A (H5N1) has been recorded.

In September, 1039 cases of HIV were detected, which increases the total number of surviving HIV-infected people of the whole country as of September 17, 2015 to 228.5 thousand, of which 78.7 thousand cases have transferred to AIDS stage. The number of deaths caused by AIDS nationwide as of that time was 79.9 thousand.

In this month, 7 cases of food poisoning occurred all over the country and made 140 people were poisoned. Since the beginning of the year, in the whole country, 103 cases of serious food poisoning have occurred, poisoning 3132 people (18 deaths).

Traffic accidents

In September (from August 16 to September 15, 2015), 1837 traffic accidents occurred nationwide, including 832 traffic accidents at less serious level or higher and 1005traffic crashes, resulting in 697 deaths; 479 people injured and 1216 people slightly injured. Compared to the same period last year, the number of traffic accidents decreased by 7.7% (The number of traffic accidents at less serious level or higher increased by 1.1%, the number of traffic crashes reduced by 13.9%); the number of deaths increased by 0.1%; the number of injured people decreased by 12.8% and the number of slightly injured people decreased by 20.2%.

Generally in 9 months, 16,459 traffic accidents have occurred in the whole country, including 7,534 traffic accidents at less serious level or higher and 8,925 traffic crashes, causing 6,518 deaths; 4,302 people injured and 10,627 people slightly injured. Compared to the same period last year, the number of traffic accidents in 9 months of this year reduced by 12% (The number of traffic accidents at less serious level or higher fell by 3.1%, the number of traffic crashes dropped by 18.3% ); the number of deaths, people injured and slightly injureddecreased by 3.6%, 2.6% and 20.8%, respectively. On average, for each day in the first 9 months of this year, 60 traffic accidentsoccurredin the whole country, including 28 traffic accidents at less serious level or higher and 32 traffic crashes, leading to 24 deaths, 16 people injured and 39 people slightly injured.

Damage caused by natural disasters

Natural disasters occurring in 9 months have affected the production and residential life of many localities across the country. According to preliminary reports of the localities, natural disasters caused 123 cases of death and missing; making 148 people injured; more than 900 houses collapsed and washed away; 25.1 thousand housesflooded, fallen inandunroofed; 40.7 thousand hectares of paddy rice and 17 thousand hectares of crops were flooded and damaged. Localities were heavily damaged by natural disasters: In Quang Ninh, 19 people were dead or missing and 32 people were injured; 9.5 thousand houses were fallen in, unroofed, flooded; 4.3 thousand hectares of paddy rice and crops were damaged; In Son La, 18 people were dead or missing and 20 people were injured; almost 2 thousand houses were fallen in, unroofed, flooded and 2.5 thousand hectares of paddy rice and crops were damaged; In, Quang Ngai 7 people were dead or missing and 10 were wounded; more than 800 houses were fallen in, unroofed, flooded and 4.8 thousand hectares of paddy rice crops and were damaged. The total value of damage caused by natural disasters in 9 months was estimated at VND 4.5 trillion of which Quang Ninh’s damage was valued at VND 2.7 trillion. According to preliminary reports, the total cash relief for disaster-affected localities has been more than VND 349 billion since the beginning of this year.

Environmental protection and fire prevention

In September, the competent authorities discovered 1,013 cases of violation of regulations on ensuring environmental hygiene, of which 408 cases were handled with a total fine of over VND 11.2 billion. Since the beginning of this year, 8.3 thousand cases of violation of regulations on environmental protection have been discovered all over the country of which 3.4 thousand cases have been settled with a total fine of VND 225.7 billion.

In the month, 190 cases of fire and explosions occurred all over the country, killed 6 people and made 15 people injured; the damage was estimated at VND 405 billion. Generally in 9 months, the whole country had 2342 cases of fire and explosions which resulted in 70 deaths, 245 injured people with estimated damage of VND 835.3 billion.

In general, despite facing many complex movements of commodity markets as well as of the global financial market, the socio-economic situation of our country in the first 9 months of this year still maintained reasonable growth. Inflation continues to be controlled at a low level. The macroeconomic policies enacted directed for implementation by the Government in a timely and flexible manner and the comprehensive and effective execution of solutions to remove difficulties for enterprises are the important factors that make domestic production and businesssignificantly improve and develop in a positive direction. However, in the last months, domestic production continues to face many difficulties and challenges: The financial markets are forecast to continue to have complicated movementsand oil prices have not been stable. China is one of the largest consumer markets in the world, so the exchange rate fluctuations of the country will also destabilize the international financial market and have negative impacts on agricultural exports of Vietnam.Regarding commodity imports, the issue of high trade deficit of our country with the Chinese market has not been resolved, thus in the coming months, if the yuan continues to depreciate, the trade deficit of Vietnam with the market will increase. At the same time, our agricultural export market tends to shrink due to the price competition for major products such as rice, coffee ... of some countries (Thailand, India...). Besides, many consumer goods of our country will be at a disadvantage in competing with cheap goods imported from China. This is no small pressure that forces domestic companies to consider their advantages to better deal with the fluctuations of the world second largest economy. To maintain macroeconomic stability and ensure positive developments of domestic business and production in the context of the complicated fluctuations of the world economy, especially of China's economy, in the last months of the year, the branches, levels and localities need to properly implement the following key measures:

First, maintaining a stable and healthy banking system. Strengthening supervision and improving risk management quality in the banks’ operations. Handling bad debts in a drastically, synchronous and timely manner. Exchange rate adjustments shall ensure the competitiveness of Vietnam's goods in the context offastandunpredictablemovements of international markets, especially in the current period when the major economies are in strong, complex fluctuations which are greatly influential to our country's economy. Along with reasonable interest rate adjustments, we should continue withpositive policies, measures to promote credit growth, contributing to support economic growth.

Second, enterprises need to take advantage of every opportunity to reduce production expenses, reduce product cost and further improve product quality in order to increase competitiveness for products and commodities Vietnam in the international market. Effectively making use of human resources and improving productivity as well as laborer capacity in the economic sectors, especially in the current period when the world has many uncertainties. In addition, enterprises should also make reasonable business plans in parallel with complete and comprehensive research, consideration of developments in the domestic and foreign economic situation to actively respond toexchange rate fluctuation, andenhancing investments to achieve the highest production and business efficiency when Vietnam fully implements its international commitments on market opening.

Third, actively implementing programs of trade promotion, investment promotion, searching and expanding export markets, particularly agricultural products to proactively deal with downward pressure on prices in penetration into the Chinese market in the coming time as China is major partner of a variety of agricultural products exported from Vietnam. Along with exploiting new markets, building brands and reputation of each item needs proper concern to have rationale investment plans and strategies and create high efficiency. Paying attention to the development of plans, strategies on development of products, specific commodity sectors associated with the national brand development strategy to promote efficient and sustainable export and import activities. Organizing goods production under the global value chain, creating products with high consistency to increase export capacity to different markets. Continuing to promote institutional reform along with the adjustments of policies to ensure flexibility in all marketmovements./.

MPI Portal