1. Macroeconomic stability
- Consumer Price Index: CPI of March increased by 0.57% over the last month and by 0.99% over December 2015. As compared to the same period last year, CPI of March rose by 1.69%; average CPI of the first quarter by 1.25%. Average inflation of the first quarter increased 1.76% as compared to the same period last year.
- Monetary and credit: As of March 20th 2016, total means of payment was estimated to rise by 3.08% over December 2015; total customer’s deposits at credit institutions by 2.26%; credit of the economy by 1.54%. Deposit and lending interest rate were relatively stable.
- State budget revenue and expenditure: Accumulated from beginning of the year to March 15th, total state budget revenue was estimated at 182.42 thousand billion dong, equaling 18% of the yearly estimation; total state expenditure was estimated at 227.73 thousand billion dong, equivalent to 17.9% of the yearly estimation.
2. Economic growth
- GDP growth of the first quarter 2016 was estimated at 5.46%, of which: agriculture, forestry and fishery was estimated to decreased 1.23%; industry and construction was estimated to rise by 6.72% and services by 6.13%.
- Index of Industrial Production: IIP of March increased by 23.8% over the last month and by 6.2% as compared to the same period last year. Generally in the first quarter 2016, IIP rose 6.3% as compared to the same period last year, including: electricity manufacturing and distribution increased by 13.1%; water supply, waste and wastewater treatment by 9.4%; processing and manufacturing by 7.9%, mining decreased 1.2%.
- Agricultural, forestry and fishery production faced many difficulties because of the severe weather, such as: long cold and harmful cold in the North, severe drought and saline intrusion in the Mekong Delta provinces, drought and water shortage in Central Southern and Central Highland provinces causing damage to agricultural production and life of people.
Value of agricultural, forestry and fishery production of the first quarter 2016 was estimated to decline 1.3% as compared to the same period last year, including: agricultural production decreased 2.5%; forestry increased 6.3% and fishery rose 2.3%. As of 15th March, as much as 3 million hectares of winter spring rice were cultivated nationwide, equivalent to 98.8% as compared to the same period last year. Southern provinces harvested 1.1 million hectares of winter spring rice, up 27.3% as compared to the same period last year.
- Service sector: Total retailed sales of consumer goods and services of the first quarter 2016 was estimated to rise 9.1% as compared to the same period 2015; if excluding the price factor, it increased 7.9%. International visitors to Vietnam in March were estimated at 820.5 thousand arrivals, up 28.3% as compared to the same period last year; at 2.5 million arrivals in the first quarter 2016, up 19.9% as compared to the same period last year.
- Export & import: In the first quarter 2016, total export turnovers was estimated at over US$ 37.88 billion, up 4.1% as compared to the same period 2015; total import turnovers at US$ 37.11 billion, down 4.8% as compared to the same period 2015; trade surplus was around US$ 776 million, equaling 2% of total export turnovers.
- Development investment: Total social investment capital of the first quarter 2016 was about 273.6 thousand billion dong, equaling 32.2% of GDP and up 10.7% as compared to the same period last year; including: state budget capital was estimated to rise by 9.2% as compared to the same period last year; realized FDI capital by 14.8%; disbursement of ODA and preferential loans by 7.9% as compared to the same period last year.
- Enterprises development: In the first quarter 2016, there were 23.767 newly registered enterprises with total registered capital of 186,013 billion dong; number of enterprises increased by 24.8% and capital by 67.2% as compared to the same period last year. Average of registered capital per enterprise was 7.8 billion dong, up 34.5% as compared to the same period. As much as 9,376 decommissioned enterprises returned to business, up 8.3% over the last quarter 2015 and up 84.1% as compared to the same period 2015.
- Equitization of SOEs: As of February 25th 2016, as much as 20 SOEs were equitized nationwide; Equitization Steering Committee of 66 enterprises was established, 79 SOEs were evaluated, 31 SOEs announced their value; the State divested 141.9 billion dong with revenue of 460.6 billion dong.
- Education – training, social welfares, health, culture and other social fields were paid attention to implement well.
Generally, Social – economic situation of the first quarter 2016 gained some positive results namely stable macro-economy, low inflation. CPI rose at a low level to reform price of products and public services according to market mechanism. Growth of service sector was higher than that of the same period last year; trade surplus was equivalent to 2% of total export turnovers. Total social investment and FDI capital attaction was rather high. Enterprises development continued changing positively. Social welfare policies were paid attention to carry out, life of people, especially people with meritorious services and policy beneficiaries, poor household, who in areas under natural disasters, drought, saline intrusion… were paid attention; Political security was maintained; Food safety and hygiene was strengthened and guaranteed.
However, in the first quarter, the economy faced many difficulties and challenges. Speed of GDP growth and industry sector was slow down and much lower than that of the first quarter 2015. Particularly, growth of agricultural, forestry and fishery sector decreased 1.23% because of natural disasters, damaged cold, frozen, drought, saline intrusion. The increase of export was lower than the same period last year; The decrease of importing equipments, machineries, materials… would adversely impact on investment activities and domestic production. If AFF production continues facing difficulties as today, crude oil production is 14.02 million tons as the plan set forth, processing and manufacturing strives 11%, GDP growth will be only 5.45%, lower than the goal set forth by the National Assembly of 6.7%. Production and people’s life in areas under natural disasters, drought, saline intrusion faced many difficulties./.
Ministry of Planning and Investment