(Report No. 9873/BC-BKHDT dated November 28, 2016)
1. Development of industries and sectors
a) Agricultural, forestry and fishery production witnessed positive changes
- Agricultural production in November concentrated on harvesting of winter rice; cultivating winter vegetables and preparing conditions for cultivation of winter-spring crops.
Regarding winter rice: as of mid-November 2016, the country harvested 1,240.5 thousand hectares of winter rice, accounting for 67.5% of the cultivated area and equalling 96.7% YoY, of which the harvested area of Northern provinces was 1,122.6 thousand hectares, making up 97.4% of the cultivated area and down 1.9% YoY.
Regarding early winter-spring rice in Southern provinces: till now, the cultivated area of Southern provinces totalled 388 thousand hectares, equal to 95.9% as compared to the same period last year, of which Mekong River Delta provinces cultivated 359.7 thousand hectares, up 2.5% YoY.
Animal husbandry continued to see stable developments, epidemic diseases were controlled. As of October 01, 2016, flock of oxen increased by 2.4% YoY, flock of pigs by 4.8% YoY and flock of poultry by 6.6%.
- Forestry: In general, the concentrated afforestation area of the country in the first eleven months of this year reached 198.7 thousand hectares, down 6.8% YoY. Wood production totalled 8.5 million m, up 9,8% YoY. The damaged forest area was 4,492 hectares, 2.4 times higher than it was in the same period in 2015, of which the burnt forest area was 3,305 hectares, 3.1 times higher; the destroyed area was 1,187 hectares, 1.5 times higher than it was in the same period last year.
- Fishery:
In November, aquaculture production was estimated to reach 311.3 thousand tons, up 6% YoY. Production of fishing caught was estimated at 247.2 thousand tons, up 4.1% YoY.
In general, aquaculture and fishing caught production in the first eleven months of 2016 reached 6,054.1 thousand tons, up 2.3% YoY, of which aquaculture production gained 3,224.3 thousand tons, up 1.7% YoY while fishing caught output was 2,829.8 thousand tons, up 3% YoY.
b) Industrial production in November witnessed significant changes. Several industries achieved a YoY growth.
Index of Industrial Production (IIP) of November was estimated to raise 7.2% YoY, higher than the increase of 6.5% over the last year. In general, IIP of the first 11 months raised 7.3% YoY, lower than the increase of 9.9% of the same period 2015, due to the sharp decrease of mining sector YoY. Processing and manufacturing industry raised by 11%; the electric power generation and distribution industry by 12.3%; water supply and waste & sewage treatment industry by 7% while mining industry continued dropping 6.3%, reducing the overall growth by 1.3 percentage points.
c) Service sector maintained rather high growth
Total retail sales of consumer goods and services of the first 11 months surged by 9.5% YoY. If excluding price factor, it by 7.6%.
International visitors to Vietnam in the first 11 months were estimated at around 9 million arrivals, up 25.4% YoY, including 30.1% increase of Asian visitors and 17.1% of European.
Transportation indicators fulfilled and exceeded the set targets, of which passenger transportation in the eleven months reached nearly 3,313 million arrivals, up 9.4% YoY and 156.7 billion arrivals-kilometres, up 10.8% YoY. Cargo transportation in this period was estimated at approximately 1,160.5 million tons, up 10.9% and 219.7 billion tons-kilometres, up 4.1%.
2. Export of goods continued to grow but at a lower rate as against the same period in 2015
Total export turnover in November was estimated at 15.6 billion, up 1.3% MoM; of which that of FDI sector (including crude oil) was estimated at 11.28 billion USD, up 0.7% while that of domestic economic sector was 4.32 billion USD, up 3%. Total export turnover in the first eleven months was estimated to reach 159.5 billion USD, up 7.5% over the same period last year (lower than the 8.3% YoY increase recorded in the same period last year). Export turnover in the first eleven months of 2016 achieved a lower YoY increase mainly because of reduction in volume and export price of crude oil and other mineral items.
Total import value in November was estimated to reach USD16 billion, up 1% MoM, of which import value of FDI sector was USD9.55 billion, up 0.4%. Import value in the first eleven months was estimated to total USD156.7 billion, up 3.5% from the same period last year (much lower than the 13.7% YoY increase recorded in the same period last year), of which import value of FDI sector reached USD92.8 billion, up 3.6% and accounting for 59.2% of total import value; import value of domestic economic sector was USD63.8 billion, up 3.4%.
Import value in the last months of the year saw a slight increase mainly because of enhanced production of exports and domestic consumer goods in service of year-end activities and Tet Holiday.
In the first eleven months, the country reported a trade surplus of USD2.85 billion, accounting for 1.78% of the total export turnover. Of the sum, FDI sector’s trade surplus (excluding crude oil) was USD19.15 billion; if crude oil is included, this figure was around USD21.25 billion. Whereas, the domestic economic sector posted an estimated trade deficit of USD18.4 billion.
3. Inflation continued to be curbed
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in November 2016 rose by 0.48% MoM, by 4.5% as against December 2015 (close to the threshold of under 5% as permitted by the National Assembly) and by 4.52% YoY. The average CPI in the first eleven months of 2016 surged by 2.47% over the same period in 2015. Core inflation in November 2016 was up 0.1% MoM and up 1.87% YoY. Average core inflation in the first eleven months of this year grew by 1.82% YoY.
Among eleven groups of main goods and services, four groups of goods with high MoM growth rates included transport (up 1.63%), drugs and medical services (up 0.9%), restaurants and food and beverage services (up 0.49%) and housing and construction materials (up 0.49%).
The CPI in November increased mainly because of the sharp MoM jump of 0.71% of the group of food (due to the reduction in vegetables production, drastic increase in prices of vegetables resulting from effects of rains and floods in Central and Southern provinces); increase of medical service prices under the Step 2 including wage expenses as prescribed in the Joint Circular No. 37/2015/TTLT-BYT-BTC, leading to the fact that the price index of the medical service group rose by 1.15%; adjustment of oil and petrol prices which soared by 3.69% MoM on average, contributing to the 0.15% increase of the CPI; 6.07% MoM increase in gas price.
4. Basic monetary balances was stable and in the right direction, credit continued to grow, meeting capital demands of the economy
The monetary market and banking activities experienced positive developments. Monetary indicators grew in consistence with macroeconomic and monetary developments. As of November 22, 2016, total liquidity climbed by 14.92% over the end of 2015 (higher than the 11.89% increase recorded in the same period last year); capital mobilization rose by 15.46% (higher than the 11.96% increase recorded in the same period of 2015). Credit for the economy rose by 14.03%.
Basically, prime interest rates were stable. Since end-September 2016, several big credit institutions have reduced deposit interest rates by 0.3-0.5%/year, by 0.5-1%/year of lending interest rates for priority fields, production and business. Exchange rates and Forex market in the first ten months of 2016 were stable, market liquidity was good, hoarding of foreign currencies lessened, the State Bank of Vietnam purchased a large amount of foreign currencies to be added to the state foreign currency reserve. Since early November 2016, exchange rates increased dramatically mainly owing to psychological factors amid the sharp appreciation of USD over other currencies after the election of Mr. Donald Trump as the new US president who has views and policies expected to stimulate economic growth and fast increase of inflation of the US and early increase of interest rates by Fed. However, market liquidity was still stable, legitimate demands for foreign currencies of organizations and individuals were satisfied on time and in full by credit institutions. The gold market developed stably and was well-regulated.
5. State Budget revenues and expenditures
State Budget balancing revenues recorded a YoY reduction. Total State Budget revenues as of November 15, 2015 reached VND852,795 billion, equal to 84.1% of the yearly estimate (lower than the 88.6% fulfillment of the yearly estimate recorded in the same period last year); of which revenues from domestic sector gained 87.1% (the same period in 2015 recorded 93.7%); revenues from crude oil achieved 63.4%; SB balancing revenues from export and import reached 76.3% (lower than the 83.3% fulfillment of the yearly estimate recorded in the same period last year). State Budget revenues of localities were estimated to achieve a high rate, equal to 98% of the yearly estimate while Central State Budget revenues fulfilled 74.2% of the yearly estimate only (lower than the 79.1% rate reported in the same period in 2015).
Total State Budget expenditure as of November 15, 2016 was estimated to equal 80.5% of the yearly estimate, of which debt and aid repayment fulfilled 87.7%, frequent expenditure was equal to 86.6%.
6. Development investment
a) State Budget capital plan disbursement results
As reported by the Ministry of Finance, estimated disbursements by central ministries, branches and localities in the first eleven months of 2016 amounted to VND176,700.1 billion, up 16.3% YoY, fulfilling 70.2% of plan (lower than the 75.2% rate achieved in the same period last year); including VND143,111.9 billion of domestic capital, equalling 70% of the plan and VND33,588.3 billion of foreign capital, equal to 71% of the plan.
b) Government bond capital plan disbursement results
As reported by the Ministry of Finance, estimated disbursements by ministries and localities in the first eleven months of 2016 reached VND22,136.696 billion, fulfilling 46.6% of the plan (lower than the rate of 62.8% recorded in the same period of 2015). Of the sum, ministries disbursed VND7,543.9 billion, equal to 32.7% of the plan while localities disbursed VND14,592.796 billion, equalling 59.8% of the plan.
c) Foreign direct investment (FDI) capital: Total realized FDI capital in the first eleven months was estimated to reach USD14.3 billion, up 8.3% YoY; Total amount of registered capital was estimated at USD18.103 billion, down 10.5% YoY; of which newly-registered capital was USD13.028 billion, down 3.9% while additionally-registered capital was USD5.075 billion, down 23.9%. There were 2,240 newly-licensed projects and 1,075 additionally-registered projects.
d) ODA capital and preferential loans from foreign donors: As of November 2016, total signed ODA amounted to over USD5.18 billion, 1.9 times higher than it was in the same period last year; Total disbursed ODA reached USD3.25 billion, equal to 73.9% of the same period in 2015 (USD4.4 billion), including USD180 million of non-refundable aid.
7. Business environment and enterprise development continued to improve and see positive changes
In November 2016, the number of newly-established enterprises was 9,918 with the registered amount of capital of VN87,062 billion, down 3.8% in number of enterprises and up 6.8% MoM in amount of registered capital. Generally in the first eleven months of this year, there were 101,683 newly-established enterprises nationwide with the amount of registered capital of VND797,686 billion, up 17.1% YoY in number of enterprises and up 48.1% YoY in amount of registered capital; average registered capital per enterprise reached VND7.8 billion, up 26.5% YoY. The number of enterprises resumed their operations in this period was 24,560, up 31.7% YoY (higher than the 31.2% increase recorded in the same period last year). As many as 18,901 enterprises registered for suspension of operations for a definite period, increasing by 27.3% YoY. As many as 35,145 enterprises were temporarily closed down for non-registration or waiting for dissolution, down 26.6% YoY.
8. Education and training, science and technology, labour and employment, social security, health, culture, sports, information and communication
a) Education and training:
In November, the education and training sector continued to implement duties to make innovations in education and training; prepared conditions for applying multi-choice tests to the national high school exam in school year 2016-2017; organized quite a few activities to celebrate Vietnamese Teacher's Day; organized the award of certificates of the titles of professor, associate professor in 2016 to acknowledge efforts, endeavours, positive contributions of teachers in training and scientific research; commended students who won International Mathematical Olympiad prizes and achieved high scores in the 2016 National High School Exam, encouraging the learning spirit of students, creating driving force for them to strive, creating halo effects to promote the study and practice for pupils and students across the country.
Various activities, solutions to children injury prevention for the period 2016-2020 were implemented in order to gradually lower the rate of accidents, injuries, especially drowning, traffic accident for children at school age; reinforce school violence prevention measures.
b) Science and technology:
The formulation of a scheme to restructure the science and technology sector was underway; the amended Draft Law on technology transfer was completed to be submitted to the XIVth National Assembly for suggestion at its 2nd session; the compilation of the Decree amending and supplementing the Decree No. 80/2007/ND-CP and the Decree No. 96/2010/ND-CP on science and technology enterprises was actively carried out.
Application of scientific research results, technology innovation and transfer, development of the technology market, implementation of the mechanism of autonomy and accountability were further enhanced. Till now, more than 200 science and technology enterprises have been granted Certificates of science & technology enterprise nationwide. Around 2,027 enterprises satisfying criteria for being recognized as science & technology enterprise have not been granted certificates. Assisting enterprises in technology transfer and innovation, research and development of new products through systems of national science and technology programs and national target science and technology programs was emphasized. Supervision and promotion of the development of technology maps, technology roadmaps for rice varieties, vaccines for people, genes, stem cells was maintained. Communication on business start-up and innovation and creativeness was actively boosted to assist enterprises in their start-up, technology innovation and improvement of competitiveness and initial encouraging results were produced.
c) Labour and employment:
In the first eleven months of 2016, as estimated, as many as 1,489 jobs were created; of which: (i) 1,382 domestic jobs were created, equal to 92.1% of the 2016 plan and down 0.8% YoY; (ii) 107 thousand workers were sent abroad to work. As estimated, there would be 1,614 thousand jobs created in the year, fulfilling 100.8% of the plan and equalling 99.3% of the figure of 2015; of which 1.5 trillion domestic jobs were created, fulfilling the plan and equal to 99.3% of the result of 2015; 114 thousand workers were sent abroad to work, exceeding 14% of the plan and equalling 99.1% of the figure of 2015.
d) Health care and protection:
Preventive healthcare activities were intensified. As of November 2016, the mortality rates of most communicable diseases (typhoid, viral encephalitis, meningococcal meningitis, hand-foot-and-mouth disease) were lower than the same period last year. Particularly, the number of dengue fever cases was nearly 96.3 thousand in 56 provinces / cities, an increase of 24.2% over the same period in 2015, including 30 deaths. Regarding Zika virus disease, the country has reported 68 cases in 7 localities among the total number of 3,449 Zika virus samples.
The Ministry of Health directed Departments of Health of provinces, cities, localities to carry out the second campaign to kill mosquitoes, larvae and implement Zika virus disease and dengue fever prevention tasks in their areas. Warnings and communications on Zika virus disease and dengue fever prevention measures on mass media were further enhanced.
- Food safety and hygiene: In November, the country recorded 8 cases of food poisoning, infecting 300 people, including 265 hospitalizations and 03 deaths. In general, in the first eleven months of this year, the country reported 119 cases of food poisoning, infecting 3,592 people, including 3,318 hospitalizations and 12 deaths.
- Social security and welfare were paid due attention. Policies and regimes on preferential treatment of policy beneficiaries, people with meritorious services to the Revolution continued to be implemented synchronously. As of end 2016, the poverty rate was estimated to reduce to around 8.58 – 8.38%, down 1.3 – 1.5% YoY; the poverty rate in poor districts was 46.4%, down 4%, fulfilling the indicator approved by the National Assembly. More than 2.7 million of social assistance beneficiaries received regular allowances; assistance and care of disadvantaged people in the society were well implemented.
dd) Culture, gymnastics and sports:
Continuing to implement and complete the formulation of legal documents in the fields of culture and sports such as devising the Draft Decree of the Government guiding the implementation of the Investment Law on conditional business in the fields of culture and heritage; the Decree on management of cultural heritages recognized by the world and UNESCO; the Decree on handling of administrative violations in the fields of culture and sports; documents, Circulars guiding the implementation of the Cultural Heritage Law, etc. Establishing the Drafting Board of the Library Law, amending the Law on physical training and sports, etc.
In the first eleven months of 2016, indicators of cultural work recorded good results: the estimated rate of families meeting cultured family standards was 86%; the rate of cultured villages, mountain villages and residential groups was estimated to reach 66%. In the gymnastics and sports sector, the estimated number of high-ranking athletes was 6,143, fulfilling 95% of the yearly plan (6,452 athletes), of which the number of sports masters was around 2,793.
General assessment
Given difficulties faced by the world and local economies, thanks to drastic directions and guidances of the Government and the Prime Minister, efforts of all branches and levels and enterprises, the local economy continued to gain the momentum for recovery and growth. Most of the industrial sectors recorded higher growth rate as compared to the same period last year. Total retail sales of goods witnessed improvements after several months of recording lower YoY reduction, this indicated that buying power and demand had an upward tendency, international visitors to Vietnam increased sharply. Agricultural production step by step recovered, animal husbandry was stable, fishing production continued to see good growth. Export of goods in extremely difficult conditions gained the momentum for growth, import value in this period approximated that of the same period last year, of which export of agricultural, forest and aquatic products continued to record a YoY increase. Balances of major financial, monetary and credit items were basically guaranteed and rather stable. Foreign exchange reserve increased. FDI attraction grew, signed ODA and preferential loans from foreign donors were 1.9 times higher than those of the same period of 2015. Reforms of administrative procedures and business environment were further improved. Business operations witnessed positive changes, the number of newly-registered enterprises and enterprises suspending and resuming operations increased drastically. Education and training, science and technology and labour and employment, healthcare and protection and other social fields were paid due attention and achieved remarkable results. Political security and social order were stable.
In addition to the above positive results, the country’s economy still faced various difficulties and challenges. Macroeconomic balances were not firm. State budget revenue was low, especially central state budget revenue. Government bond capital disbursement was not improved as compared to previous months. Export of mineral and garment & textile products dropped dramatically. Smuggling, commercial fraud, counterfeit and poor-quality goods were not drastically handled. Operations of enterprises still encountered numerous difficulties. The damaged forest area was still so large. Living conditions of people in mountainous and ethnic minority areas and areas striken by natural disasters, floods, droughts, salinization, polluted, remote and deep-lying areas remained quite difficult.
Ministry of Planning and Investment