Vietnam’s socio-economic developments in the first nine months of 2016 took place in the context of slow global economic growth[1]. The U.S.’s economy has recovered but is now slowing down while Chinese economy continued to decline and key economies of the EU posted weak growth; Japan failed to fulfil its economic growth expectation. Commodity markets and prices in the world remained low level and there was no sign of recovery in the global trade. According to the World Trade Organization’s report, global trade in the first half of 2016 bottomed in the last six years. The above factors have negative impacted on Vietnam’s economy, especially export activities and State budget revenues.
Despite the local advantages brought about by the positive signs in 2015, the country's economy encountered a number of difficulties and challenges because of complicated weather conditions and climate changes. Extreme and damaging cold spells, storms and floods in Northern provinces, severe drought and salinization in the Central Highlands, the Southern Central region and the Mekong River Delta and massive fish kills in four central provinces adversely affected production activities and people's life.
Given these circumstances, the Government guided and directed sectors and localities to focus on the effective and comprehensive implementation of the Resolution No. 01/NQ-CP dated January 7, 2016 of the Government on major tasks and solutions guiding and directing the implementation of the Socio-Economic Development Plan and the State budget plan in 2016. At the same time, the Government issued a wide range of Resolutions to direct and solve urgent issues, surmount difficulties, promote economic development, stabilize people’s life and protect ecological environment such as the Resolution No. 19-2016/NQ-CP dated April 28, 2016 on key tasks and measures to improve business environment, enhance national competitiveness in two years 2016 - 2017, with an orientation to 2020; the Resolution No. 35/NQ-CP dated May 16, 2016 supporting and developing enterprises by 2020; the Resolution No. 60/NQ-CP dated July 08, 2016 on the major tasks and measures to accelerate the progress of public investment disbursement in 2016. With vigorous and drastic changes and efforts of levels, sectors, enterprises and the whole people, the country’s economy and society overcome difficulties and challenges. The country’s sectors and industries recorded the following achievements in the first nine months of the year:
I. ECONOMIC GROWTH
1. Gross domestic product (GDP) growth
GDP in the first nine months of 2016 was estimated to increase by 5.93% YoY, continued to maintain the growth rate (by 5.48% in QI, by 5.78% in QII and by 6.40% in QIII as estimated, respectively) but was still lower than the growth rate of 6.53% recorded in the same period last year.
This is mainly because the mining industry kept on declining [2] and agriculture posted a lower growth against the same period last year. Of the 5.93% growth rate, agriculture, forestry and fishery rose by 0.65%, which represented the lowest growth rate over the same period in the last six years[3], contributing 0.11 percentage points to the overall growth; the industry and construction sector was up 7.50%, contributing 2.52 percentage points to the overall growth; the service sector increased by 6.66%, contributing 2.55 percentage points[4].
In the agriculture, forestry and fishery sector, forestry achieved the highest growth of 6.19% as against the same period in 2015, contributing 0.04 percentage points to the overall growth; fishery surged by 1.81%, contributing 0.06 percentage points while agriculture, though showing signs of recovery from the 0.78% reduction seen in the first six months of the year, reported the growth rate of 0.05%, contributing 0.01 percentage points.
In industry and construction sectors, industry saw a YoY increase of 7.19%, much lower than the 9.86% increase of the same period a year earlier. The processing and manufacturing industry surged by 11.22%, contributing 1.80 percentage points to the overall growth while the mining industry in the first nine months of this year was down 3.60%, leading to a 0.28 percentage point reduction mainly due to the decline in the world oil price which resulted in a fall in the exploitation volume of crude oil as compared to the same period of the previous year; Coal mining faced difficulties in product consumption due to price reduction. The construction industry recorded a significant growth of 9.10%, contributing 0.50 percentage points to the overall growth.
In the service sector, certain industries posted a good YoY growth rate: Wholesale and retail rose by 8.15%, this is the industry which recorded the second highest growth rate in the service sector (following that of the information and telecommunication industry) but made the greatest contribution to the overall growth (0.74 percentage points); accommodation and catering services rose by 5.71%, contributing 0.22 percentage points; finance, banking and insurance by 7.38%, contributing 0.37 percentage points; real estate business continued to record an improvement, climbed by 3.66% (higher than the 2.90% growth in the same period last year), contributing 0.20 percentage points.
GDP growth rates
in the first nine months of 2014, 2015 and 2016
|
|
YoY change
(%)
|
Contributions by sectors to the growth rate of the first nine months of 2016
(Percentage points)
|
|
|
9 months in 2014
|
9 months in 2015
|
9 months in 2016
|
|
Overall growth
|
5.53
|
6.53
|
5.93
|
5.93
|
|
Agriculture, forestry and fishery sector
|
2.94
|
2.08
|
0.65
|
0.11
|
|
Industry and construction sector
|
5.75
|
9.72
|
7.50
|
2.52
|
|
Service sector
|
5.94
|
6.10
|
6.66
|
2.55
|
|
Taxes on products net of subsidies on products
|
7.55
|
5.52
|
6.45
|
0.75
|
Regarding the economic structure in this period, the service sector occupied the largest portion of 41.80%, followed by the industry and construction sector with 32.48%, the agriculture, forestry and fishery sector with 15.54% and taxes on products net of subsidies on products with 10.18%, respectively.
According to the structure of using GDP in nine months, final consumption soared by 6.97% against the same period of 2015, contributing 4.96 percentage points to the overall growth (of which final consumption of households made the greatest contribution with 4.52 percentage points); accumulated assets by 10.12%, contributing 2.87 percentage points; balance of import and export witnessed trade deficit, reducing 1.90 percentage points of the overall growth.
2. Agriculture, forestry and fishery
The production value of the agriculture, forestry and fishery sector as calculated at 2010 constant prices in the first nine months of this year was estimated to reach VND594.1 trillion, up 0.7% YoY, of which the agriculture industry gained VND433.5 trillion, up 0.1%; the forestry industry totalled VND20.7 trillion, up 6.3%; the fishery industry raked in VND139.9 trillion, up 1.9%.
a. Agriculture
As of middle-September, as much as 1691.3 thousand hectares of winter rice was cultivated nationwide, equalling 98.2% YoY, of which Northern provinces finished the cultivation with the area of 1151.6 thousand hectares, equal to 98.7%; the cultivated area in Southern provinces was 539.7 thousand hectares, equalling 97.2%. The area of winter rice in Northern provinces decreased mainly due to drought, lack of water at the beginning of the crop, impacts of three consecutive storms occurring at the time of cultivation. A part of the area of winter rice was badly flooded and unrecoverable, thus several localities have actively changed into fruit tree cultivation or fish farming with higher economic efficiency [5]. Besides, several localities have used a part of rice cultivation area to serve irrigation and civil works [6]. Up to now, winter rice crops in Northern provinces were at the ripening and maturing stage and the harvested winter rice area in the North was nearly 24 thousand hectares. Local flooding caused by the three storms resulted in a sharp drop in winter rice productivity in several Red River Delta localities: Vinh Phuc (down 10 quintal/ha), Quang Ninh (down 2.6 quintal/ha), Ha Nam (down 1 quintal/ha). If the weather is favourable in the last months of the year and the crop is not affected by pests and diseases, the winter rice productivity of the Northern provinces this year will be estimated to approximate the productivity in the same period last year, the estimated yield will reach 5.8 million tons, down 36.6 thousand tons as compared to the same crop in 2015.
The summer-autumn rice area nationwide this year was estimated to attain 2106 thousand hectares, up 3.2 thousand hectares over the same crop last year, of which the cultivated area of summer-autumn rice in the Mekong River Delta region reached 1674.5 thousand hectares, down 3.3 thousand hectares. As of September 15, 2016, the Southern provinces harvested 1648.9 thousand hectares of summer-autumn rice, equalling 93.6% from the same period last year, accounting for 78.3% of the cultivated area, of which Mekong River Delta provinces harvested 1422.2 thousand hectares, equalling 93.6% and accounting for 85% of the cultivated area. According to localities’ report, the summer-autumn rice productivity of the whole country this year was estimated to reach 5390 kilograms per hectare, down 30 kilograms per hectares against the same crop in 2015; the estimated production was 11.3 million tons, down 49 thousand tons. Of the sum, because of unfavourable weather conditions, Mekong River Delta region saw a YoY decrease in the cultivated area and production of summer-autumn area (down 0.2% in area and 1.2% in production, respectively); the output was estimated at 9.02 million tons, down 125.6 thousand tons.
As of mid-September, the cultivated area of autumn-winter rice in the Mekong River Delta region was 664.7 thousand hectares, equal to 109.4% as compared to the same period a year earlier owing to the extension of the cultivated area in regions enclosed by dykes (up13.2 thousand hectares in An Giang; up 11.6 thousand hectares in Long An; up 3.5 thousand hectares in Can Tho). Till now, the harvested area of autumn-winter rice totalled 120.2 thousand hectares, equivalent to that figure recorded in the same period last year with the estimated output of 53.4 quintal/hectare, up 0.9 quintal/hectare.
The cultivation of a number of farm produces witnessed a slight decrease in comparison with the same period last year. As of mid-September, the country cultivated 1047.5 thousand hectares of maize, equalling 99.1% of the same period in 2015; 111.2 thousand hectares of sweet potatoes, equal to 90.3%; 188.2 thousand hectares of peanuts, equalling 97.1%; 85.8 thousand hectares of soybeans, equalling 86.8% and 952.6 thousand hectares of vegetables and bean, equal to 102.8%.
The planting of perennial industrial crops continued to develop with good production due to an increase in the gathering area: The output of pepper in the first nine months was at an estimate of 192.9 thousand tons, up 9% YoY; tea 853 thousand tons, up 3% YoY; rubber 643 thousand tons, up 0.4% whereas cashew nuts production was 301 thousand tons, down 15%. The production of several fruit trees showed a slight increase due to high consumption of the market: the output of oranges rose by 4% over the last year's same period; bananas up 1.3%; mangos up 0.7%; grapefruits up 0.5%; pineapple up 0.3%. Meanwhile, the lychee output saw a reduction of 13%; the output of rambutan was down 2.4%; longan output fell by 1.5% due to unfavourable weather conditions and decreased gathering area.
Animal husbandry was generally stable. As of mid-September, the country’s flock of buffaloes reduced by 1% from the same period in 2015; flock of oxen raised by 2%-2.5%; flock of pigs increased by 3.5%-4%; flock of poultry went up by 5%-5.5%. The output of live-weight buffalo meat for slaughter in nine months of 2016 went down by 1.2% against the identical period last year; output of live-weight beef climbed by 2%; output of live-weight pork moved up by 4.5%; poultry meat production rose 5.7%. As at September 26, 2016, avian flu and foot and mouth disease were eradicated throughout the country; a blue-ear pig disease outbreak over the last 21 days was reported in Ha Tinh province.
In the first nine months of this year, severe drought and salinization happened in South Central, Central Highland, Southeast and Mekong River Delta regions at their peaks in March, April and early May, which negatively affected production and life of local residents. In particular, draught and salinization which occurred in the Mekong River Delta this year was regarded as the most serious ones over the last century. Salinization has hit the core of Mekong River Delta region, causing huge damages to production and life of local residents and will continue to affect agricultural production of localities in coming time. Therefore, the agriculture industry should work out solutions to transform the agricultural production structure in order to adapt to and overcome disadvantages resulting from climate change and, at the same time, improve and dredge the system of canals and ditches, irrigation works for salinity prevention, build reservoirs to keep fresh water in service of production and people’s life.
b. Forestry
In nine months of 2016, the concentrated afforestation area of the whole country was estimated to reach 151.9 thousand hectares, down 7.3% as compared to the same period last year mainly due to rain and storm and flood occurring at the time of afforestation; the number of dispersedly planted trees gained 133.6 million, a decrease of 1.9%. Several provinces reported a dramatic decrease in the concentrated afforestation area: Ha Giang 8.5 thousand hectares, down 66.4%; Tuyen Quang 3.3 thousand hectares, down 23.9%; Lang Son 2.9 thousand hectares, down 50%; Thanh Hoa 1.8 thousand hectares, down 15.4%. Wood production in this period gained 6521 thousand m3, a YoY rise of 11.8% due to stable consumption market, of which a number of provinces recorded a drastic increase in wood production: Quang Ngai 627 thousand m3, up 17.3%; Tuyen Quang 440 thousand m3, up 42%; Thanh Hoa 364 thousand m3, up 19.7%; Hoa Binh 262 thousand m3, up 46.2%. The estimated firewood production in the first nine months of this year gained 21.3 million ster, representing a 0.5% decrease.
Forest protection and fire prevention &fire fighting were paid due attention by administrative levels and sectors. However, due to prolonged dry and hot weather conditions, forest fires still occurred in some localities. In the first nine months of the year, the damaged forest area reached 4,359 hectares, 2.5 times higher than it was in the same period last year, of which the burnt forest area was 3,256 hectares, 3 times higher; destroyed area was 1,103 hectares, up 67.9%. Some localities reported high burned forest area, including Dien Bien with 969 hectares; Son La with 919 hectares; Ha Giang with 226 hectares; Yen Bai with 194 hectares; Binh Dinh with 174 hectares; Ha Tinh with 112.5 hectares.
c. Fishery
Fishing production in the first nine months of the year was estimated to reach 4,937.6 thousand tons, up 1.98% YoY, of which there were 3,601.6 thousand tons of fish, up 1.7%; and 570 thousand tons of shrimps, up1.7%.
Aquaculture faced various difficulties due to extreme and damaging cold spells occurring in Northern provinces in the first months of the year and water environmental pollution, draught and salinization in Southern provinces and Mekong River Delta. The aquatic farming area in the first nine months was estimated at 1,021.7 thousand hectares, up0.6% YoY. The aquatic production output totalled 2,604.8 thousand hectares, up 1.2%, including 1,894.8 thousand tons of fish, up 0.9% YoY, 447 thousand tons of shrimp, up 1.5%.
Tra fish farmers continued experiencing difficulties due to unstable and low prices, high farming costs and decreased purchasing power of big consuming markets. Tra fish breeding area in this period was estimated to attain 11.2 thousand hectares, equivalent to the figure recorded in the last year’s same period, of which intensive Tra fish farming area in the Mekong River Delta region was 4.4 thousand hectares, up 1.4%. Tra fish production in this period was at an estimate of 850 thousand tons, down 1.3% YoY, including An Giang with 210.5 thousand tons, down 6.3%, Ben Tre with 121.9 thousand tons, down 7.3%, Tien Giang with 28.8 thousand tons, up 4.5%.
Brackish water shrimp farming was affected by draught, saltwater intrusion and epidemic diseases, especially tiger prawn because it is predominantly cultured under extensive farming and improved extensive farming. Tiger prawn farming area in the first nine months was estimated at 576.9 thousand hectares, up 0.1% YoY; Tiger prawn output reached 180 thousand tons, down 2.7%, of which Ca Mau attained 62 thousand tons, down 9.8%; Bac Lieu 42.9 thousand tons, down 10.4%; Kien Giang 30.9 thousand tons, up 11.2%; Ben Tre 5.8 thousand tons, up 2.8%.
White leg shrimp farming area in the first nine months was estimated to reach 80.2 thousand hectares, up 4.2% from the same period in 2015; white leg shrimp output was at an estimate of 232.3 thousand tons, up 4.5%, including Ca Mau with 38.3 thousand tons, up 6.4%; Soc Trang with 35.8 thousand tons, up 25.7%; Ben Tre with 22 thousand tons, down 11.8%.
The country’s production of fishing caught in the first nine months was estimated to total 2,332.8 thousand tons, up 2.9% over the same period last year, of which fish attained 1,706.8 thousand tons, a rise of 2.6%; shrimp gained 123 thousand tons, a rise of 2.6% (Sea catching in the first nine months reached 2,195.8 thousand tons, up 3%, including 1,602.8 thousand tons of fish, up 2.7%; 113 thousand tons of shrimp, up 2.4%).
However, in late April, four Northern central coastal provinces, namely Ha Tinh, Quang Binh, Quang Tri and Thua Thien – Hue reported mass fish deaths, which impacted consumer confidence and discouraged many fishermen from fishing offshore. As a result, the fishing output of these provinces fell sharply as compared to the same period last year [7].
3. Industrial production
The Index of Industrial Production (IIP) in September was estimated to rise by 7.6% from the same period last year (higher than the 7.5% increase recorded in August), of which the mining industry decreased by 7.1%, the processing and manufacturing industry added 11.7%; the electric power generation and distribution industry grew by 11.2%; and the water supply and waste & sewage treatment industry recorded a rise of 7.4%.
Generally in the first nine months, the IPI went up by 7.4% YoY, lower than the increase of 9.9% recorded in the same period in 2015, mainly due to the sharp decrease of the mining industry as compared to the same period last year. Of the industries, the processing & manufacturing industry grew by 10.4%, contributing 7.4 percentage points to the overall growth; the electric power generation and distribution industry by 12.1%, contributing 0.8 percentage points; the water supply and waste & sewage treatment industry by 6.9%, contributing 0.1 percentage points. Whereas, the mining industry dropped by 4.1%, reducing the overall growth by 0.9 percentage points [8].
Regarding the usage of products, intermediate products(in service of the next production process) surged by 5.6%; products in service of final utilization rose by 8,9%, of which products used as means of production went up by 11%, products used as consumables climbed by 7.8%.
Some secondary industries posted a higher production index in the first nine months as compared to the same period last year: Production of metals was up 16.9% YoY; textiles up 16.4%; manufacture of motor vehicles up 15.3%; manufacture of computers, electronic and optical products up 14.9%. Some industries posted low or reduced growth: Production of paper and paper products was up 7.6%; electrical equipment manufacturing up 6.7%; tobacco production up 5.5%; manufacture of leather and related products up 3.8%; chemicals and chemical products up 2.5%; other mining and quarrying up 2.4%; mining of coal and lignite up 1.8%; crude oil and natural gas mining down 5.8%.
In the first nine months of this year, some industrial products recorded a high production index as compared with the same period last year: Production of televisions grew by 86%; rolled steel by 24.3%; automobiles by 21%; animal feed by 20.3%; raw iron and steel by 17.2%; cements by 15.2%. Some products recorded a low or decreased growth over the same period last year: Coal rose by 1.8% (coal consumption faced difficulties due to decreased prices); leather footwear by 1.5%; motorcycles by 0.1%; urea fell by 4.1%; fabrics made from natural fibre by 5.3%; refined sugar by 5.9%; crude oil by 7.8%; NPK by 9.7%; mobile phones by 10.7%.
The IPI in the first nine months of the year as compared with the same period of 2015 of some localities were as follows: The IPI of Quang Nam rose by 30.7%; Thai Nguyen by 28.5%; Hai Phong by 16.5%; Da Nang by 12.1%; Can Thoby 11%; Binh Duong by 9.6%; Bac Ninh by 9.1%; Hai Duong by 8.2%; Dong Nai by 7.9%; Ho Chi Minh City by 7.3%; Hanoi by 7.1%; Quang Ninh by 5.6%; Vinh Phuc by 4.3% while Ba Ria - Vung Tau declined by 2.5%.
The consumption index of the processing & manufacturing industry in August 2016 rose by 2.1% MoM and by 10.8% YoY. Generally, the consumption index in the first eight months rose by 8.3% YoY (lower than the 13.2% increase of the same period in 2015). Several industries reported a high consumption index over the last year’s same period: Manufacture of motor vehicles rose by 19.2%; production of computers, electronic and optical products by 15.7%; textiles by 11.7%; manufacture of other non-metallic mineral products by 10.8%; production of beverages by 10.4%. Some industries reported a low or decreased consumption index: Food production and processing went up by 7.2%; medicines, drugs and pharmaceuticals production by 4.5%; manufacture of tobacco, leather and related products by 3.8%; production of chemicals and chemical products by 2.9%; paper and paper product manufacture by 1.8% while production of other means of transport fell by 2.3%.
The inventory index of the processing & manufacturing industry as of September 1, 2016 soared by 9% YoY (lower than the 9.9% increase of the same period last year), of which some industries recorded a lower or decreased inventory index as compared with the overall growth: Textiles was up 7%; apparel production up 6.1%; manufacture of chemicals and chemical products up 6% while production of leather and related products was down 0.7%; manufacture of medicines, drugs and pharmaceuticals down 4.8%; manufacture of prefabricated metal products down 13%; electrical equipment production down 13.4%; manufacture of tobacco products down 36.5%; production of other means of transport down 46.9%. Some industries reported a much higher inventory index than the overall growth: Manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products rose by 125% (mainly latest mobile phones); production of motor vehicles by 40.6%; manufacture of paper and paper products by 32.9%; production of other non-metallic mineral products by 22.5%; manufacture of rubber and plastic products by 22.4%; production of beds, wardrobes, tables, chairs by 21.1%.
The average inventory index of the processing & manufacturing industry in the first eight months of 2016 was 68.4% (while that of the same period last year was 74%), of which some industries recorded a high inventory index: the inventory index of fabricated metal products was 129.8%; medicines, drugs and pharmaceuticals 112.5%; chemicals and chemical products 106.3%.
The employment rate of industrial enterprises as of September 01, 2016 increased by 4.2% YoY, of which the employment rate of state-owned enterprises fell by 1.7%; non-state enterprises surged by 1.2%; FDI companies by 6.8%. By that time, the employment rate of the mining industry dropped by 7% YoY while that of the processing and & manufacturing industry was up 4.8%. The employment rate of the electric power generation and supply industry went down by 0.4% while that of the water supply and waste & sewage treatment industry added 2.6%.
The employment rate of industrial enterprises as at September 01, 2016 as compared with the same period last year in some centrally-run provinces and cities with large industrial scales as follows: The employment rate of industrial enterprises in Thai Nguyen rose by 25.2%; Hai Phong by 14%; Vinh Phuc by 6.3%; Binh Duong by 6.2%; Dong Nai by 6.1%; Bac Ninh by 5.8%; Da Nang by 3.6%; Hai Duong by 3.1%; Hanoi by 1.9%; Quang Nam by 1.7%; Ho Chi Minh City by 0.8% while the employment rate of industrial enterprises in Can Tho is equal to that recorded in the previous year; the employment rate of industrial enterprises in Ba Ria-Vung Tau was down 1.1%; Quang Ninh down 3%.
In general, in the first nine months of this year, except for the mining industry which recorded a sharp drop in its IPI, other industries, especially processing & manufacturing industry (having the largest scale and accounting for the biggest proportion in the overall industrial production), still maintained stable development [9].This was indicated by relatively positive trends of the consumption index, inventory index and employment rate: The consumption index of the processing & manufacturing industry in August jumped by 10.8% while this index as at September 01, 2016 soared by 9%. In addition, the employment rate of industrial enterprises showed that industrial production, especially processing & manufacturing industry and FDI enterprises, though still facing difficulties, gained the momentum for recovery and step by step developed stably.
4. Business activities
a. Business registration[10]
In September 2016, there were 8,047 new enterprises established with a registered capital of VND76.2 trillion, down 13.3% in number and up 7.3% amount of the registered capital MoM. The average registered capital of a company was VND9.5 billion, up 23.8%. The number of employees of these newly-established enterprises totalled 71.5 thousand, down 36.7%.
In the month, as many as 1,799 companies throughout the country resumed their operations, down 10.3% MoM and 5,426 had to suspend their operations, up 6.6% (including 1,644 registered enterprises suspending their operations for a definite period and 3,782 companies were temporarily closed down waiting for closure of business codes or for non-registration); 886 enterprises completed dissolution & termination procedures, down 16.2%.
Generally, in the first nine months of this year, the country had 81,451 enterprises registered for establishment with a total registered capital of VND629.1 trillion, up 19.2% in number and 49.5% in the amount of registered capital as compared with the same period last year [11]; the average registered capital of a newly established business was VND7.7 billion, up 25.4% YoY. The number of employees of these newly-established enterprises totalled 928.7 thousand, equal to 92.9% of the same period in 2015. In the first nine months, 20,510 enterprises resumed their operations, up 59.6% YoY (much higher than the 8.2% increase of the same period last year), increasing the total number of newly-established enterprises and enterprises resuming their operations in the first nine months to approximately 102 thousand. This indicated that the new legal framework and solutions worked out by the Government in supporting and encouraging enterprises’ development have demonstrated their effectiveness, helped enterprises find out new directions and development opportunities.
The number of newly-established enterprises in the first nine months of this year in most industries and sectors recorded a YoY rise, of which some industries and sectors reported a sharp growth both in terms of number of enterprises and amount of registered capital: Real estate business was up 99.1% in number of enterprises and up 242.5% in amount of registered capital; information and telecommunication industry up 14.5% in number and up 173.9% in amount of registered capital; the electric power, water, gas production and distribution industry up 19.2% in number and up 113.1% in amount of registered capital; the processing & manufacturing industry up 23.1% in number and up 110.7% in amount of registered capital; other service activities up 40.3% in number and up 112.5% in amount of registered capital. Only in the art, entertainment and amusement industry, the number of enterprises registered for establishment in the first nine months dropped by 32.6% YoY; the amount of registered capital by 23.2%.
The number of enterprises which completed dissolution & termination procedures in the first nine months of 2016 was 8,365, up 20.2% YoY (that of the same period in 2015 fell by 0.9% as compared to 2014), including 7,812 companies with a registered capital of less than VND10 billion, accounting for 93.3% and rising by 20.0%. According to business types, among the enterprises that completed dissolution & termination procedures, there were 3,373 one-member limited liability companies (accounting for 40.3%); 2,489 two-member limited liability companies (making up 29.8%); 1,390 private enterprises (accounting for 16.6%); 1,110 joint-stock companies (representing 13.3%) and three partnership companies.
There were 45,097 enterprises suspending their operations in the first nine months of the year, down 5.3% YoY, including 16,294 enterprises registered for suspension of their operations for a definite period of time, up 31.0% and 28,803 enterprises temporarily closed down waiting for closure of business or for non-registration, down 18.1%.
Among the companies registered for suspension of their operations for a definite period of time, there were 6,269 one-member limited liability companies (accounting for 38.5%); 5,617 two-member limited liability companies (making up 34.5%); 2,738 joint-stock companies (representing 16.8%); 1,669 private companies (accounting for 10.2%) and 01 partnership company. Among the companies temporarily closed down waiting for closure of business or for non-registration, there were 12,000 one-member limited liability companies (accounting for 41.7%); 8,980 -member limited liability companies (making up 31.2%); 5,210 joint-stock companies (representing 18.1%) and 2,613 private companies (accounting for 9.1%). By industry and sector, most industries and sectors recorded a YoY reduction in the number of companies temporarily closed down waiting for closure of business or for non-registration. Only the art, entertainment and amusement industry and the mining industry witnessed a rise in the number of companies temporarily closed down waiting for closure of business or for non-registration from the same period last year.
b. Business trends of enterprises
The survey on business trends of companies engaged in the processing & manufacturing industry in QIII revealed that 80.3% of the companies said that the production and business situation in QIII was stable and better than QII (of which 38.8% of the companies said that their production and business situation in QIII was better than QII while 41.5% of the companies gave an idea of stable production and business situation), 19.7% of the companies reported that they encountered difficulties. Enterprises’ forecasts for QIV suggest that their production and business situation shall be more positive than QIII, especially for foreign-invested enterprises and state-owned enterprises. In particular, 85.6% of the companies assessed their production and business situation in QIV to be stable and better, of which 48.8% of the companies forecast that would be better while 36.8% of the companies expected their production and business situation would be stable and 14.4% of the companies projected the trend to be worse.
With regard to production volume, as much as 42.2% of the companies said that their production volume in QIII rose from the previous quarter; 19.3% of the businesses reported their production volume fell while 38.5% of the enterprises thought the production volume was stable. When forecasting the production volume in QIV against QIII, 50.3% of the companies expected an increased production volume; 13.7% of the companies thought it would fall while 36.0% of the businesses said it would remain stable.
With respect to purchase orders, as much as 36.2% of the enterprises reported a higher number of purchase orders; 19.2% of the companies recorded a lower number of purchase orders while 44.6% of the businesses had a stable number of purchase orders. QIV’s trends were more optimistic than QIII’s with 45.6% of the companies expecting more orders; 13.4% of the companies projecting fewer orders and 41.0% of the businesses forecasting a stable number of orders.
With respect to export orders in QIII as compared with QII, as much as 30.8% of the enterprises reported a higher number of export orders; 19.9% of the companies recorded a lower number of export orders and 49.3% had a stable number of export orders. When projecting the trend in QIV against QIII, 38.6% of the businesses expected more orders; 15.1% of the companies projected fewer orders and 46.3% of the businesses forecast a stable number of orders.
As to production costs, as much as 24.1% of the enterprises said that production costs per product in QIII rose against QII; 8.5% of the businesses confirmed lower costs and 67.4% of the companies reported stable costs. When projecting QIV’s trends, 18.5% of the enterprises expected higher production costs in QIV over QIII; 9.7% of the businesses said production costs would decline and 71.8% of the companies forecast stable production costs.
Regarding product prices in QIII as compared with the previous quarter, as much as 15.4% of the companies recorded rising product prices; 11% of the enterprises offered lower prices and 73.6% of the companies kept prices stable. When forecasting QIV’s trends, 16.2% of the businesses expected higher product prices in QIV over QIII, 8.4% of the enterprises thought that product prices would decline and 75.4% of the companies forecast stable product prices.
With respect to product inventories in QIII as compared with the previous quarter, 21.3% of the companies reported higher inventories, 28.8% of the businesses recorded reduced inventory levels and 49.9% of the enterprises had stable inventories. When projecting QIV’s trends, 15.6% of the companies forecast higher inventories than QIII, 30.4% of the businesses expected lower inventories and 54.0% of the businesses reported stable inventories.
With regard to material inventories in QIII as compared with QII, 19.1% of the companies reported increased material inventories, 27.7% of the businesses had lower material inventories and 53.2% of them recorded unchanged material inventories. As much as 14.5% of the companies expected higher material inventories in QIV, 28.7% of the enterprises forecast lower material inventories while 56.8% of the companies said that their material inventories would be stable.
Regarding employment in QIII as compared with the previous quarter, 16.9% of the enterprises confirmed a higher number of employees; 12.6% of the enterprises said the number of employees declined and 70.5% of the companies confirmed an unchanged number of employees. As much as 91.3% of the companies forecast an increased or stable number of personnel in QIV against QIII; only 8.7% of the companies expected it to decline.
5. Service activities
a. Retail sales of consumer goods and services
Sales of services in the first nine years of this year faced difficulties because people tended to cut spending. However, thanks to the effort of manufacturers and distributors, the Government’s due attention and Ministries, industries in resolving difficulties faced by enterprises, revenues from services recorded good results as compared with the same period last year. Total retail sales of consumer goods and services in September were estimated at VND296.2 trillion, representing a MoM and YoY increase of 0.9% and 10.7%, respectively, of which retail sales of goods was VND225.4 trillion, increasing by 1.2% MoM and 10.1% YoY; sales of accommodation and catering services totalled VND35.1 trillion, down 0.4% MoM and up 15.7% YoY; revenues from tourism and travel reached VND2.8 trillion, down 10.7% MoM and up 4.1% YoY; sales from other services amounted to VND32.9 trillion, up 1% MoM and up 10.5% YoY.
Generally in the first nine months of this year, total retail sales of consumer goods and services reached VND2,605.8 trillion, up 9.5% YoY (lower than the 10.2% increase of the same period last year over 2014).If the price factor was excluded, they would surge 7.7% (lower than the 9.2% increase of the same period of 2015). If classified by sectors, total retail sales of goods in the first nine months of 2016 was estimated at 1,984.2 trillion, accounting for 76.2% of the total and increasing by 9.7% YoY. Some sectors recorded an increase in total sales: total retail sales of food and foodstuff rose by 13.2%; household appliances, tools and equipment by 10.1%; apparel by 9.5%; transport vehicles by 7.6%; cultural and educational products by 2.7%.
Sales of accommodation and catering services in the first nine months of the year totalled VND300 trillion, accounting for 11.5% of the total and rising by 8.3% YoY. Of the sum, sales of accommodation and catering services reported by Hanoi were up 9.2%; Ho Chi Minh City up 5.9%; Bac Giang up 7.2%; Lang Son up 7%. Some localities reported lower sales of accommodation and catering services: Hoa Binh reported a fall of 16.4%; Ha Tinh 13.5%; Phu Tho 9.1%; Lai Chau 5.5%; Nghe An 4.2%.
Revenues from tourism and travel in the first nine months of this year were estimated at VND24.2 trillion, accounting for 0.9% of the total and soaring 7.5% YoY. Revenues from tourism and travel of Ba Ria - Vung Tau rose by 13.3%; Ninh Binh by 10.5%; Binh Thuan by 8,4%; Hanoi by 6.7%; Ho Chi Minh City by 3.8%. Some provinces reported a sharp drop in sales from tourism and travel: Lang Son reported a decline of 25%; Tra Vinh 19.4%; Ha Tinh 11.7%; Lam Dong 8%.
Sales from other services in the first nine months were estimated to reach VND297.4 trillion, accounting for 11.4% of the total and surging 9.3% YoY. Some provinces reported a remarkable increase: Binh Phuoc reported an increase of 19.1%; Thanh Hoa 19%; Phu Yen 15.9%; Quang Nam 15.6%; Binh Thuan 15.5%; Bac Ninh 14.1%.
b. Transportation, posts and telecommunication
Passenger transportation in September was estimated to reach 302.3 million arrivals, up 9.8% YoY and 14.7 billion arrivals-kilometres, up 12.9% YoY. Generally in the first nine months, passenger transportation totalled 2,710.3 million arrivals, up 9.6% YoY and 128.1 billion arrivals-kilometres, up 10.5%, of which passenger transportation by road was 2,544.1 million arrivals, up 9.7% YoY and 85.7 billion arrivals-kilometres, up 8% YoY; transportation by sea reached 4.5 million arrivals, up 3.6% and 226.3 million arrivals-kilometres, up 1.6%. Transportation by air recorded a sharp increase with 29.9 million arrivals, up 28.1% YoY and 37.2 billion arrivals-kilometres, up 20.4% thanks to continued efforts to promote inland market exploitation by airlines and the launch of several international routes. Transportation by railway reached 7.8 million arrivals, down 11.3% YoY and 2.8 billion arrivals-kilometres, down 17.1% YoY because of lack of significant improvements of travelling time, ticket prices uncompetitive with airlines which offer the lowest fares and transportation by road.
Cargo transportation in September was estimated at 108.4 million tons, up 13.3% YoY and 20.2 billion tons-kilometres, up 4.4% YoY. Generally in the first nine months, cargo transportation reached 937.6 million tons, up 9.5% YoY and 179 billion tons-kilometres, up 3.8% YoY. Of which domestic transportation totalled 913 million tons, up 9.7% and 81.8 billion tons-kilometres, up 6.6% YoY; overseas transportation reached 24.6 million tons, up 2.6% YoY and 97.2 billion tons-kilometres, up 1.5% YoY. Cargo transportation by road totalled 728.8 million tons, up 10.9% YoY and 44.1 billion tons-kilometres, up 14.2% YoY; by river 160.3 million tons, up 6.2% YoY and 33.2 billion tons-kilometres, up 5.9% YoY; by sea 44.6 million tons, up 3.6% YoY and 98.9 billion tons-kilometres, down 0.2% YoY. Particularly, cargo transportation by railway reached 3.7 million tons, down 25.3% YoY and 2.3 billion tons-kilometres, down 25% mainly due to out-of-date infrastructure and means of transport in contrast to rapid and favourable development of traffic facilities, bridges and roads, resulting in the fact that a large volume of cargo transported by railway changed into transportation by road.
Telecommunication sales in the first nine months of 2016 were estimated to reach VND285.3 trillion, up 7.7% YoY. The total number of telephone subscribers as of the end of September 2016 was estimated at 134.8 million, up 5.4% YoY, of which mobile phone subscribers reached 129 million, up 6% YoY while land line phone subscribers totalled 5.8 million, down 6.5% YoY. The number of fixed broadband Internet subscribers was estimated to be 8.8 million, up 23.4% YoY.
c. International visitors to Vietnam
International visitors to Vietnam in September were estimated to reach 813 thousand arrivals, down 9.6% MoM (because this was the end of the summer tourism season in Vietnam) but up 28% YoY, the number of visitors from Asia recorded an increase of 30.8%; Europe 25.1%; the Americas 12.4%; Australia 11.6%; Africa 17.3%.
Generally in the first nine months of this year, international visitors to Vietnam were estimated at 7,265.4 thousand arrivals, up 25.7% YoY, of which arrivals by air was 6,109 thousand, up 29.7%; by road 1,045.2 thousand arrivals, up 10.8% YoY; by sea 111.2 thousand arrivals, down 13.7%.
In the first nine months, arrivals from Asian countries reached 5,264.1 thousand arrivals, up 30.8% YoY, of which visitors from most major markets, especially China and Korea – the countries with the largest number of visitors to Vietnam: Visitors from China totalled 1,987.6 thousand arrivals, up 57.7% YoY; South Korea 1,134 thousand arrivals, up 39.9%; Japan 555.2 thousand arrivals, up 11.4%; Taiwan 382 thousand arrivals, up 15.7%; Malaysia 287.8 thousand arrivals, up 14.9%; Thailand 189.4 thousand arrivals, up 34.1%; Singapore 180.6 thousand arrivals, up 9.1%.
The season factor strongly affected the number of visitors from Europe in September. However, the policy on extension of visa exemption program for citizens from five Western European countries (United Kingdom, French Republic, Federal Republic of Germany, Spain and Italian Republic) under the Resolution No. 56/NQ-CP dated June 20, 2016 by the Government continued to show its effectiveness when visitors from European countries in the first nine months of 2016 reached 1,157.2 thousand, up 16.3% YoY. In this period, visitors from the United Kingdom totalled 189.9 thousand, up 23.1% YoY; France 179.6 thousand, up 13.8%; Germany 125.6 thousand, up 18.6%; Spain 42.2 thousand, up 27.9%; Italia 38.3 thousand, up 31.1%; Russian Federation 299.1 thousand, up 26.5%; the Netherlands 48.4 thousand, up 24.4%.
Visitors from the Americas reached 548.3 thousand, up 13% YoY, of which arrivals from the United States totalled 421.7 thousand, up 14.5% YoY. Visitors from Australasia were 275.9 thousand, up 7.2% YoY, of which arrivals from Australia totalled 243.5 thousand, up 6.6%. Visitors from Africa reached 19.9 thousand, equal to 97.6% of the same period of 2015.
II. MACROECONOMIC STABILIZATION & INFLATION CONTROL
1. Banking and insurance
As of September 20, 2016, the total means of payment grew by 11.76% over the end of 2015 (8.88% increase in the same period last year). Capital mobilization of credit institutions surged by 12.02% (up 8.9% in the same period last year); credit growth of the economy reached 10.46% (up 10.78% in the same period last year). Current deposit rates were relatively stable, only rising by around 0.2%-0.3% from mid-February to March 2016. The lending interest rate floor of state commercial banks and several joint-stock commercial banks fell by 0.5%/year with respect to short-term loans and mid-term and long-term lending interest rates were adjusted to 10%/year at the maximum for clients which borrowed capital in service of production and business, lending programs with interest rate incentives were actively implemented. Credit structure continued to focus on priority sectors such as agriculture, export, supporting industry and SMEs in order to facilitate economic growth more effectively.
The local insurance market maintained positive growth in the first nine months of the year. Gross written premiums of the market in QIII were estimated to rise by 23% YoY, of which premium revenue from life insurance jumped by 32%, non-life insurance by 15%. Regarding non-life insurance, the leading insurer in premium revenue from direct insurance was PVI Insurance which accounted for 20.5% of the total premium revenue from direct insurance; followed by Bao Viet with 16.7%; PTI with 8.3%; Bao Minh with 8.2% and PJICO with 6.6%. Regarding life insurance, total premium revenue from new insurance policies was estimated to soar by 32% YoY, of which Bao Viet Life recorded the largest market share, accounting for 21.3%; followed by Prudential with 20.2%; Manulife with 13.6%; Daiichi with 12.2%; AIA with 11%.
2. Construction and investment
a. Construction
The construction industry grew well in the first nine months of 2016 as the construction and disbursement progress of key works and projects was maintained. Lower interest rates created favourable conditions for businesses to get access to loans. The stability of building materials prices, improvement of the real estate market and a series of solutions adopted by the Government and ministries helped remove difficulties and obstacles for investors, construction projects and developers.
The production value of construction at current prices in the first nine months of 2016 was estimated to reach VND747.4 trillion, of which the state sector generated VND651 trillion, accounting for 87.1%; the non-state sector produced VND37.9 trillion, making up 87.1%; and the FDI sector obtained VND37.9 trillion, accounting for 5.1%. Of the sum, the production value of construction of residential buildings totalled VND305.2 trillion, accounting for 40.9%; non-residential buildings VND119.6 trillion, making up 16%; civil engineering works VND234.2 trillion, accounting for 31.3%; specialized construction activities VND88.4 trillion, making up 11.8%.
The production value of construction in the first nine months at 2010 constant prices was estimated to reach VND590.9 trillion, up 8.6% YoY, of which the State sector brought about VND47 trillion, up 3.2%; the non-state sector VND513.2 trillion, up 10.9%; and the FDI sector VND30.7 trillion, down 14,2%[12]. Of the total production value, the production value of construction of residential buildings totalled VND239.8 trillion, up 13.7%; non-residential buildings VND94.8 trillion, down 0.7%; civil engineering works VND185 trillion, up 7.4%; specialized construction activities VND71.3 trillion, up 9%.
b. Development Investment
The total realized social investment capital at current prices in the first nine months was estimated at VND1,006.9 trillion, up 9.6% YoY and equal to 31.3% of GDP. Of which the state sector disbursed VND 378.8 trillion, accounting for 37.6% of the total and increasing 7.2% YoY; the non-state sector VND387.7 trillion, accounting for 38.5% and up 10.1%; the FDI sector VND240.4 trillion, accounting for 23.9% and up 12.6%.
YoY growth of total realized social investment capital
in the first nine months of 2014, 2015 and 2016
(At current prices)
Unit: %
|
|
First nine months of 2014
|
First nine months of 2015
|
First nine months of 2016
|
|
Total
|
110.9
|
109.6
|
109.6
|
|
The State sector
|
111.5
|
106.6
|
107.2
|
|
The non-State sector
|
113.3
|
111.0
|
110.1
|
|
The FDI sector
|
106.3
|
112.4
|
112.6
|
The total investment capital from the State budget in September was estimated at VND 24,558 billion, up 14.3% YoY, and of which the capital under central management totalled VND6,230 billion, up 10% YoY while the locally-managed investment capital amount reached VND18,328 billion, up 15.8% YoY. In the first nine months, the total investment capital from the State budget was estimated at VND180 trillion, equalling 69.1% of the annual plan and increasing 13.1% over the same period of 2015, of which:
- The centrally managed capital totalled VND42,600 billion, equivalent to 68.1% of the annual plan and up 16.4% YoY, of which the investment capital realized by the Ministry of Transport totalled VND15,400 billion, equivalent to 85.9% of the annual plan and up 28.5% YoY; the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development VND5,059 billion, equalling 71.7% and up 22.6%; the Ministry of Health VND1,983 billion, equal to 63.8% and up 19%; the Ministry of Education and Training VND1,947 billion, equivalent to 60.4% and up 41.1%; the Ministry of Construction VND708 billion, equal to 76.3% and down 43.9%; the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment VND509 billion, equalling 56.8% and up 5.8%; the Ministry of Culture, Sports and Tourism VND393 billion, equal to 58% and up 0.5%; the Ministry of Industry and Trade VND338 billion, equivalent to 72.8% and up 17.6%; the Ministry of Science and Technology VND215 billion, equal to 74.3% and down 9%; the Ministry of Information and Communications VND88 billion, equalling 64.8% and down 32.5%.
- The locally managed capital amounted to VND137,400 billion, equal to 69.4% of the annual plan and up 12.2% YoY. Of the sum, the realized provincial State budget capital totalled VND96,700 billion, equalling 66.5% of the annual plan and up 15%; the district-level State budget capital VND33,500 billion, equivalent to 74.2% of the annual plan and up 7.5%; the commune-level State budget VND7,200 billion, equal to 96.2% of the annual plan and down 0.9%. The total realized capital from the State budget of some centrally-administered cities and provinces was as follows: Hanoi reported VND22,800 billion, equal to 74.2% of the annual plan up 41.5% YoY; Ho Chi Minh City VND12,100 billion, equivalent to 68% and up 0.3%; Binh Duong VND4141 billion, equalling 64.4% and up 33.4%; Nghe An VND4,085 billion, equal to 70.7% and up 13.5%; Vinh Phuc VND3,616 billion, equivalent to 68.5% and up 7.1%; Quang Ninh VND3,580 billion, equal to 55.9% and up 10%; Ba Ria - Vung Tau VND3,291 billion, equalling 53.7% and up 7.1%.
From the beginning of the year to September 20, 2016, Vietnam recorded 1,820 newly licensed FDI projects with the total registered capital of US$11,164.6 million, up 27.1% in the number of projects and 1.1% in the capital value against the same period of 2015. At the same time, as many as 851 licensed projects were provided with an additional capital of US$5,265.5 million. Accordingly, the total registered capital of both newly and additionally registered projects amounted to US$16,430.1 million, down 4.2% over the same period last year. The realized FDI capital in the first nine months of 2016 was estimated at US$11.02 billion, up 12.4% YoY.
In the first nine months of the year, the processing & manufacturing industry attracted the highest FDI amount with the newly registered capital of US$7,911 million, accounting for 70.8% of the total; followed by the real estate business industry with US$979.4 million of FDI attracted, accounting for 8.8% and other industries with US$2,274.2 million, accounting for 20.4%. If the additional registered capital amount of the projects licensed in previous years was included, the total FDI amount poured in the processing & manufacturing industry in the first nine months of this year reached US$12,154.4 million, accounting for 74% of the total; the real estate business US$1,003.2 million, accounting for 6.1%; other industries US$3,272.5 million, accounting for 19.9%.
As many as 48 centrally-run cities and provinces reported newly-licensed FDI projects in the first nine months. Haiphong reported the highest registered FDI amount of US$2,433.8 million, accounting for 21.8% of the total newly registered capital, followed by Hanoi with US$1,082.5 million, accounting for 9.7%; Binh Duong with US$1,008 million, making up 9%; Dong Nai with US$900.7 billion, making up 8.1% Ho Chi Minh City with US$745.3 million, accounting for 6.7%; Ha Nam with US$575.8 million, accounting for 5.2%; Bac Ninh with US$439.1 million, accounting for 3.9%.
Of 57 countries and territories having newly-licensed FDI projects in Vietnam in the first nine months, South Korea was the biggest investor with US$4,561 million invested in Vietnam, accounting for 40.9% of the total newly registered capital, followed by Singapore with US$1,251.1 million, accounting for 11.2%; the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (China) with US$843.7 million, accounting for 7.6%; Taiwan with US$801.9 million, accounting for 7.2%; China with US$665.2 million, up 6%; Japan with US$659.7 million, accounting for 5.9%.
3. State budget revenues and expenditures
Total State budget revenues as of September 15, 2016 were estimated to reach VND665.2 trillion, equalling 65.6% of the annual estimate, of which domestic revenues amounted to VND536.3 trillion, equivalent to 68.3% of the annual estimate; revenues from crude oil VND28.4 trillion, equal to 52%; revenues from export-import balance VND97.4 trillion, equal to 56.6%. State budget revenues in the first nine months were lower mainly due to a fall in oil prices and the impact of trade diversion and the restructuring of imported goods when entering free trade agreements (FTAs), which caused a reduction in central budget revenues [13].
Of domestic revenues, the amount of collected land use fees reached VND54.5 trillion, equalling 109% of the annual estimate; Taxes on trading and commercial activities and non-state services VND106.1 trillion, equivalent to 74% of the annual estimate; Personal income tax VND46.7 trillion, equal to 73.4%; Environmental protection tax VND28.2 trillion, or 73.2% of the annual estimate; revenues from FDI companies (excluding crude oil) VND108.4 trillion, equalling to 68.2%. Revenues from state-owned enterprises reached VND136.2 trillion, only equalling 53.1% of the annual estimate, mainly because those operating in oil, gas, coal & mineral production and processing and hydropower generation experienced several difficulties.
State budget expenditures from the beginning of the year to September 15 were estimated at VND819.4 trillion, equal to 64.4% of the yearly estimate, of which spending on development investment totalled VND130.2 trillion, equivalent to 51.1%; spending on economic and social development, national defence and security and administrative management was VND574.2 trillion, equal to 69.7%; spending on debt and aid repayment VND109.8 trillion, equalling 70.8%. With the solutions implemented under the Resolution No. 60/NQ-CP dated July 8, 2016 by the Government major tasks and solutions to accelerate the progress of implementation and disbursement of public investment capital in 2016, the disbursement of capital construction funds continued to be improved. As of September 15, the total amount of disbursed capital construction funds was estimated at 51% of the annual budget while the amount of disbursed government bond capital equalled to 40% of the annual estimate.
4. Export and import of goods and services
a. Export of goods
The export turnover reached US$16,096 million in August, US$896 million higher than the estimate, of which the export value of telephones and accessories was US$206 million higher than the estimate; textiles US$175 million higher; machinery, tools and spare parts US$79 million higher; aquatic products US$59 million higher; wood and wood products US$44 million higher; steel US$37 million higher; electronic products, computers and components US$35 million higher; crude oil US$34 million higher; coffee US$33 million higher.
The export turnover in September was estimated at US$15 billion, down 6.8% from MoM, of which the export turnover of the domestic sector totalled US$4.31 billion, down 7.5% while that of the FDI sector (including crude oil) was US$10.69 billion, down 6.5%. Some exports reported a lower export turnover as compared with the previous month: The export value of pepper fell by 20.6%; coffee by 19.5%; Footwear by 18.2%; telephones and accessories by 17.4%. As compared with the same period last year, the export turnover in September this year soared by 9.0%, of which the export value of the domestic sector surged by 10.4% while that of the FDI sector (including oil crude) rose by 8.4%. The export turnover of some commodities increased sharply: The export value of machinery, equipment and other spare parts increased by 30.6% electronic products, computers and components by 29.1%; footwear by 12.1%; textiles by 8.8%.
Generally in the first nine months of this year, the export turnover was estimated at US$128.2 billion, up 6.7% YoY, of which the export value of the domestic sector reached US$37.0 billion, up 5.0% while that of the FDI sector (including crude oil) amounted to US$91.2 billion, up 7.4%. The export turnover in the first nine months fell primarily due to a 3.14% decrease in export prices on average over the same period last year, of which export prices of agricultural products and food plunged by 5.8%, fuels by 29.6%. If the price factor is excluded, the export turnover reached US$132.4 billion in the first nine months, up 10.2% YoY.
The export turnover of certain processed or assembled products rose over the same period last year: The export value of telephones and accessories was US$25.0 billion, up 8.6%; textiles US$17.9 billion, up 5.9%; electronic products, computers and components US$12.9 billion, up 13.7%; footwear US$9.4 billion, up 7.9%. The export value of some agricultural products and raw materials decreased YoY: The export turnover of rice totalled US$1.7 billion [14], down 12.4% YoY (down 16.3% in quantity and 3% in average export prices); crude oil US$1.7 billion, down 43.3% (down 25% in quantity and 31.5% in average export prices); cassava and cassava products US$762 million, down 24.8% (down 11.4% in quantity); chemical products US$683 million, down 1.1%.
Regarding export markets in the first nine months of this year, the United States was still the largest export market of Vietnam with the export value of US$28.3 billion, up 14.5% YoY. The export turnover of some export staples to this market increased. The export value of textiles soared by 4.2%; footwear by 10.9%; telephones and accessories by 51.6%; aquatic products by 11.4%; machinery, tools and spare parts by 29.1%. The follower was the EU with the export turnover of US$24.6 billion, up 9.5%. Of the sum, the export value of telephones and components was up 6%; footwear up 8%; textiles up 7%; cashew nuts up 21.9%; electronic products, computers and components up 19.9%; coffee up 18.8%. The export turnover to the Chinese market reached US$14.8 billion, up 19.1%, of which the export value of aquatic products grew by 49.3%; vegetables by 39.3%; textiles by 24.7%; footwear by 21.8%; telephones and components by 76.2%. The export value to the Japanese market totalled US$10.7 billion, up 3.2%. With the export turnover of US$8.3 billion, South Korea was the highest growing export market with a YoY increase of 29.9%, of which the export value of telephones and components surged by 110%; electronic products, computers and components by 73.4%; vegetables by 30.4%. Despite of an expected increase in the export turnover, the export value to ASEAN markets was only US$12.5 billion, down 9.1% YoY, of which the export value of telephones and accessories fell by 5%; vehicles and spare parts by 27.2%; iron and steel by 27.7%.
The export structure in the first nine months of this year was almost unchanged as compared with the same period last year: the export value of heavy industrial goods and minerals was estimated at US$58.8 billion, up 6.9% and accounting for 45.9% of the total export value (percentage points higher than the same period last year). The export value of light industry goods and handicrafts reached US$51.2 billion, up 6.6% and accounting for 39.9% (0.1 percentage points lower). The export structure of agricultural and forestry products (reaching 13.2 billion US dollars, up 6.5% and accounting for 10.3% of turnover) and seafood (US $ 5 billion, up 5.7%, accounting for 3.9%) remained unchanged over the same period last year.
b. Imports of goods
The import turnover in August reached US$15,523 million, US$523 million higher than the estimate, of which the import value of machinery, equipment, tools and spare parts was US$97 million higher; electronic products and computers, components US$96 million higher; animal feed and raw materials US$94 million; wheat and plastics US$74 million higher; other base metals US$55 million higher; petro US$40 million higher; vegetables US$28 million higher.
The import turnover in September was estimated at US$15.10 billion, down 2.7% MoM, of which the import value of the domestic sector reached US$6.05 billion, down 2.3%; while that of the FDI sector was US$9.05 billion, down 3.0%. As compared with the same period last year, the import turnover i September rose by 9.8%, of which the import value of the domestic sector and the FDI sector was up 14.5% and 6.8%, respectively. Some imports reported an increased import value over the same period last year: The import value of electronic products, computers and components rose by 21.3%; iron and steel by 23.5%; other base metals by 24.8%.
Generally, in the first nine months of 2016, the import turnover reached US$125.4 billion, up 1.3% YoY, of which the import value of the domestic sector amounted to US$51.4 billion, up 2.0% while that of the FDI sector was US$74.0 billion, up 0.9%. If the price factor is excluded (the average import price decreased by 7.13%), the import value was US$135.1 billion, up 9.1% YoY.
The import turnover of some products fell as compared with the same period last year. The import value of machinery, equipment, tools and spare parts reached US$20.2 billion, down 2.7%; telephones and accessories US$ 7.5 billion, down 8%; petroleum US$3.4 billion, down 14.1% (up 22.9% in quantity); animal feed and materials US$2.5 billion, down 2.1%; chemicals US$2.3 billion, down 2.8%; wood and wood products US$1.3 billion, down 20.2%; cotton US$1.2 billion, down 4.6%. The import value of some items rose over the same period last year: The import turnover of electronic products, computers and components amounted to US$20.2 billion, up 16.9%; fabric US$7.7 billion, up 2.7%; iron and steel US$5.8 billion, up 1.9%; plastics US$4.5 billion, up 2.9%; other base metals US$3.6 billion, up 17.3%; plastic products US$3.2 billion, up 16.7%.
Among the country’s import markets, China was still the largest import market in the first nine months with the import value of US$36 billion, down 1.8% from the same period last year [15], of which the import turnover of machinery, equipment, tools and spare parts decreased by 2.4% while that of telephones and accessories was down 15.7%. The follower was South Korea with the import value of US$23 billion, up 9.4%, of which the import turnover of electronic products, computers and components rose by 24.2% (US$1.2 billion); machinery, equipment, tools and spare parts by 5.4%; telephones and accessories by 10.6%. Imports from ASEAN markets were worth US$17.1 billion, down 2.4% YoY, of which the import value of petroleum fell by 7%,that of electronic products, computers and components by 15.1%. The import value to Japan reached US$10.9 billion, up 0.1%; that to the EU totalled US$8.1 billion, up 4.9%, of which the import value of machinery, equipment, tools and spare parts increased by 1.9% while that of pharmaceuticals went up 18.2%; that to the United States amounted to US$6 billion, up 0.3%, of which the import value of electronic products, computers and components and chemical products rose by 48.9% and 2.9%, respectively.
Regarding the import structure in the first nine months of this year, the import value of production materials was estimated at US$114.5 billion, increasing by 1.2% YoY and accounting for 91.3% of the total (0.1 percentage points lower as compared with the same period in 2015), of which the import value of machinery, equipment, tools and spare parts reached US$51.1 billion, going up 1.2% and accounting for 40.7% (0.1 percentage points lower ); fuels and raw materials US$63.4 billion, rising by 1.2% and accounting for 50.6% (unchanged); consumer goods US$10.9 billion, up 2.8% and accounting for 8.7% (0.1 percentage points higher).
Vietnam reported a trade surplus of US$573 million in August [16]. The trade surplus in September was estimated at US$100 million. Generally in the first nine of the year the country recorded a trade surplus of US$2.76 billion, of which the trade surplus of the domestic sector and the FDI sector was US$14.38 billion and US$17.14 billion, respectively.
C. Export and import of services
The service export value in the first nine months of 2016 was estimated to reach US$9.2 billion, up 12.8% YoY, of which of which the export turnover of tourism services totalled US$6.3 billion, accounting for 68.2% of the total and increasing by 17.9% YoY. The total service import value in the first nine months of the year was estimated at US$12.6 billion, up 3.4% YoY, of which the import value of transportation services amounted to US$6.6 billion n, accounting for 52.2% of the total and rising by 2.2%. The trade deficit of services in the first nine months of the year was US$3.4 billion.
5. Price Index
a. Consumer price index
The consumer price index (CPI) in September was up 0.54% MoM, of which the price index of the education group reported the highest increase of 7.19% (the price index of education services increased by 8.36%) as 53 centrally-run cities and provinces raised school fees as scheduled in the Decree No. 86/2015/ND-CP of the Government dated October 2, 2015 (which caused the CPI impact to increase by 0.42%). The price index of transportation services added 0.55% because petroleum prices were raised on August 19 and September 5 (which caused the price index of fuels to rise by 1.2% and the overall CPI by 0.05%). The price index of other goods and services reported a lower increase or decrease: The price index of cultural, entertainment and tourism services was up 0.18%; apparel, headwear and footwear up 0.14%; household equipment and appliances up 0.11%; housing and construction materials; food and catering services up 0.09%[17]; beverages and tobacco up 0.04%; medicine and healthcare services up 0.02%; telecommunications down 0.07%.
The CPI soared by 3.14% YoY in September and was up 0.34% over December 2015. The CPI in the first nine months of 2016 increased by 2.07% on average as compared with the same period in 2015. This was higher than the average CPI growth of 0.74% reported in the same period last year but was much lower than the average CPI increase of recent years[18] and still be within the 5% limit set by the National Assembly. However, as from now to the end of 2016, several factors may put pressure on the CPI, including the price of healthcare services, petroleum and, consumer spending by the end of the year, the Government should continue to direct the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Industry and Trade and relevant ministries to closely monitor price and market developments and consider raising the price of certain essential goods to avoid spill over effects on the CPI.
The core inflation in September 2016 was up 0.07% MoM and 1.85% YoY. The average core inflation in the first nine months of 2016 went up 1.81% YoY.
b. Gold and USD price indexes
The gold price index dropped by 0.36% in September 2016 as compared with the previous month but surged by 17.11% over December 2015 and by 13.08% YoY. The USD price index rose by 0.07% in September 2016 as compared with the previous month while it fell by 0.99% against December 2015 and was down 0.77% YoY.
C. Producer price index
The producer price index (PPI) of agricultural, forestry and fishery products in the third quarter of 2016 increased by 0.43% QoQ and by 3.31% YoY, of which the PPI of agricultural products rose by 0.91% QoQ and 3.6% YoY; forestry products by 0.59% QoQ and by 2.78% YOY; aquatic products by 1.23% QoQ and 2.4% YoY. Generally in the first nine months of this year, the PPI of agricultural, forestry and fishery products was up 0.78% YoY.
The PPI of industrial products went up 0.65% QoQ in the third quarter and down 0.5% YoY, of which the PPI of mineral products was up 2.94% QoQ and down 7.36% YoY; the processing and manufacturing industry up 0.49% QoQ and up 0.61% YoY; electric power generation and distribution up 0.20% QoQ and down 0.73% YoY; water supply and sewage treatment up 0.26% QoQ and up 1.73% YoY. Generally in the first nine months, the PPI fell 0.93% YoY.
The price index of fuels, supplies and materials used for production rose by 0.85% QoQ and fell by 0.41% YoY, of which the price index of raw fuels, supplies and materials used for agriculture, forestry and fishery was up 1.06% QoQ and up 0.39% YoY; for the processing and manufacturing industry up 1% QoQ and down 0.27% YoY; for construction down 0.73% QoQ and down 1.95% YoY. Generally in the first nine months of the year, the price index of fuels, supplies and materials used for production dropped by 1.30% YoY.
Transportation and warehousing price indexes rose by 0.23% QoQ and slumped by 2.23% YoY, of which the price index of passenger transportation was up 0.40% QoQ and down 1.27% YoY; cargo transportation down 0.06% QoQ and down 4.66% YoY; warehousing and and logistics services up 0.82% QoQ and up 3.73% YoY. The price indexes of different modes of transport in the third quarter were as follows: by rail up 1.59% QoQ and down 6.2% YoY; by road and bus up 0.25% QoQ and down 2.98% YoY; by water up 0.02% QoQ and down 5.92% YoY; warehousing and logistics services up 0.82% QoQ and up 3.73% YoY. Generally in the first nine months, transportation and warehousing price indexes fell by 2.11% YoY.
The service price index in the third quarter of 2016 increased by 0.43% QoQ and soared by 2.31% YoY, of which the service price index of some industries were as follow: Accommodation and catering up 0.41% QoQ and up 2.83% YoY; information and communication up 0.03% QoQ and up 0.15% YoY; education and training up 1.54% QoQ and up 4.85% YoY; health care and social assistance up 2.00% QoQ and up 28.59% YoY. Generally in the first nine months of this year, the service price index surged by 2.09% over the same period last year mainly because in the third quarter some localities increased school fees and healthcare fees as scheduled.
d. Export and import price indexes of goods
The export price index of goods in the third quarter of this year rose by 1.19% QoQ and dropped by 1.72% YoY, of which the export price index of agricultural products and food was up 3.89% QoQ and down 2.81% YoY; fuels up 12.31% QoQ and down 17.54% YoY; other processed and manufactured goods down 0.08% QoQ and up 1.19% YoY. The export price index of some commodities increased or decreased QoQ and YoY was as follows: Vegetables up 1.83% and down 6.82%; coffee up 10.84% and down 10.78%; crude oil up 12.64% and down 18.71%; rubber up 10.62% and down 9.29%; iron and steel down 1.79% and down 25.39%. Generally in the first nine months of 2016, the export price index of goods slumped by 3.14% YoY.
The import price index of goods in the third quarter of this year increased by 1.15% QoQ and decreased by 5.83% YoY, of which the import price index of agricultural products and food was up 3.4% QoQ and down 1.93% YoY; fuels up 14.05% QoQ and down 26.33% YoY; other processed and manufactured products up 0.06% QoQ and down 4.29% YoY. The import price index of some commodities increased or decreased QoQ and YoY was as follows: liquefied gas down 2.64% and down 10.48%; petroleum up 15.64% and down 20.33%; rubber up 8.32% and down 1.82%; wood and wood products down 2.68% and down 8.58%; computers, electronic products, telephones and accessories up 0.32% and down 2.46%. Generally in the first nine months of the year, the import price index of goods dropped by 7.13% YoY.
The TOT [19] in the third quarter of this year rose by 0.04% QoQ and up 4.37% YoY, of which the TOT of petroleum of all kinds was down 1.4% QoQ and down 2.47% YoY; rubber up 2.12% and down 7.61%; computers, electronic products, telephones and accessories down 0.05% and up 2.58%; electric wires and cables down 2.38% and up 1.54%. Generally, the TOT of the first 9 months increased 4.29% YoY. The QoQ and YoY increase of the TOT showed that the export price of goods still have a relative advantage over the price of imports.
III. SOCIAL ISSUES
1. Population, labour and employment
The average population in 2016 was estimated to be 92.70 million, up 1.08% or 987.8 thousand persons as compared with the same period last year. Of which urban population was 32.06 million persons, accounting for 34.6% of the total; rural population 60.64 million persons, making up 65.4%; male population 45.75 million persons, accounting for 49.4%; female population 46.95 million persons, making up 50.6%.
The population change and family planning survey as of April 1, 2016 showed that the total fertility rate was estimated to reach 2.09 children per woman; the crude birth rate was estimated to gain 15.74‰; the sex ratio at birth was 112.2 male births per 100 female births; the crude death rate was 6.83‰; the infant mortality rate was 14.52‰; the under-five mortality rate was 21.80‰. The low mortality rate demonstrate the effectiveness of health care programs for mothers and children in particular and public health protection and living standard improvement activities in general in recent years.
The number of labourers aged 15 years old or more throughout the country as of October 1, 2015 was estimated to reach 54.44 million, an increase of 122,700 persons as compared to the same period of 2015, including 28.02 million male workers, accounting for 51.5% and 26.42 million female employees, making up 48.5%. Regionally, the number of labourers aged 15 years of age or more in urban areas amounted to 17.54 million, accounting for 32.2% and that in rural areas was 36.9 million, making up 67.8%.
The number of employees in the working age as of this time was estimated at 47.88 million, 233,200 persons fewer as compared with the same period last year due to the impact of the environment incident along the central coast. Of the sum, there were 25.82 million male workers, accounting for 53.9% and 22.06 million female employees, making up 46.1%. The labour force in the working age in urban areas totalled 16.02 million persons, accounting for 33.5% and that in rural was 31.86 million people, making up 66.5%.
The number of employed people aged 15 years old or more in the first nine months of this year was estimated at 53.27 million people, including 22.32 million people working in the agriculture, forestry and fishery industry, accounting for 41.9% of the total; 13.16 million people working in the industry and construction sector, making up 24.7%; and 17.79 million people in the service sector, accounting for 33.4%.
The unemployment rate of people in the working age in QI, QII and QIII was estimated at 2.25%, 2.29% and 2.34%, respectively. Generally, the unemployment rate in the first nine months of the year stood at 2.29%, of which the unemployment rate in urban areas was 3.23% and 1.82% in rural areas. The unemployment rate of young people (from 15-24 years of age) in the first nine months was 7.04%, of which the unemployment rate of youngsters in urban and rural areas was 11.65% and 5.27%, respectively. The underemployment rate of people in the working age reached in QI, QII and QIII was estimated at 1.76%, 1.55% and 1.68%, respectively. Generally in the first nine months, the underemployment rate among young people was 1.66% and the rate in urban and rural areas was 0.70% and 2.11%, respectively.
The rate of labourers with informal jobs other than those working in the agricultural, forestry and fishery sector [20] in QII and QIII was 56.1% and 55.8%, respectively. Generally, in the first nine months of 2016, the country had 55.9% of labourers doing informal jobs, of which 47.1% was in urban areas; 63.9% in rural areas.
2. People’s life and social security
In the first nine months of the year, the country had 251,200 households suffering from food shortage, up 15.6% YoY or 1,040,700 persons facing food shortage, up 15.4%. The increased food shortage as compared with the same period last year was mainly attributable to the impact of natural disasters and serious drought and salinity intrusion in some areas, especially in northern midland and mountainous provinces, the North and South Central Regions and the Central Highlands. To overcome the food shortage, from the beginning of the year, all administrative levels, sectors and organizations from the central to local levels provided difficult families with 16.8 thousand tons of grain food, including 775 tons of food allocated in September. The poverty rate in 2016 was estimated to be 5.8%-6.0%. If the multidimensional poverty line was applied during 2016-2020[21], the poverty rate was estimated at about 10.4%.
Social security works were paid due attention. According to preliminary reports, the total funding for social security and poverty reduction in the first nine months of 2016 reached VND4,677 billion dongs, of which VND2,964 billion was used to support policy beneficiaries; VND1,173 billion to help poor households; and VND540 billion for other famine and social relief. Besides, more than 8.7 million health insurance policies and free healthcare cards were provided to policy beneficiaries throughout the whole country.
The marine environmental incident occurring last April in the central provinces of Ha Tinh, Quang Binh, Quang Tri and Thua Thien - Hue caused unusual massive fish kills, resulting in huge socio-economic losses and severely affecting the life of local people. With a view to assisting those affected by the incident, the Prime Minister issued the Decision No. 772/QD-TTg dated May 9, 2016 on the provision of emergency support for those affected by the massive fish deaths in the provinces of Ha Tinh, Quang Binh, Quang Tri and Thua Thien – Hue and instructed sectors and levels to urgently mitigate the consequences of the incident, support locals in a timely and effective manner. Currently, the government is drastically directing relevant ministries, sectors and localities to urgently determine the loss, determine the compensation amount and provide assistance to the people in these localities to soon stabilize their life and production activities.
3. Education and training
By the end of September 2016, there were 52 out of 63 centrally-administered cities and provinces satisfied the preschool education standards applicable for children under five years old and all 63 centrally-run cities and provinces completed the universalization of primary education at the right age, of which 12 cities and provinces were recognized to have met second-level primary education standards.
At the beginning of the 2016 – 2017 school year, as many as 4.9 children entered preschools, including 700,000 children entering kindergartens and 4.2 million children started preschool education; 15.7 million students going to school, including 7.7 million primary school pupils; 5.5 million secondary school pupils and 2.5 million high school pupils.
According to preliminary reports, in the 2015-2016 school year, the country had 887,400 students taking the national high school graduation exam, down 11.8% from the previous school year. Notably in this school year, 286,100 students enrolled in the exam only for obtaining high school graduation certificates, representing 32.2% of the total (4 percentage points higher than the previous school year). This proves that careers guidance at high schools has changed and shows a positive signal that students no longer see universities as the only way to success.
The university and college entrance examination of the 2016-2017 school year was adjusted to better meet career expectations of students and ensure the enrolment autonomy of universities and colleges. In the university and college entrance exam of the 2016-2017 school year, nearly 300 universities and colleges had their own enrolment autonomy schemes, an increase of 100 ones as compared with the previous school year. After the first round, 127 universities and institutes over the country enrolled 277 students, or 91% of the proposed quota, of which 41 ones completed their quota.
4. Epidemic diseases and food poisoning
In September 2016, the country reported 1,500 cases of hand, foot and mouth disease; 47 cases of typhoid; 116 cases of viral encephalitis (6 deaths); 8 cases of meningococcal meningitis. Generally, in the first nine months of 2016, there were more than 25,700 cases of hand, foot and mouth disease; 255 cases of typhoid; 686 cases of viral encephalitis (17 deaths); 41 cases of meningococcal meningitis (5 deaths). The dengue fever outbreak continued to worsen in the Central Highlands, the Central Coastal Region, the Southeast and the Mekong River Delta Region during the rainy season as a favourable environment for mosquitoes to breed and spread. In September, as many as 11,900 cases of dengue fever (03 deaths) were reported, bringing the total number of cases of dengue fever from the beginning of the year to 68,700 (21 deaths).
The total number of living HIV-infected people in the country as of September 17, 2016 was 229,400, of which 86,800 cases turned AIDS. The number of people died of AIDS nationwide as of that time was 88,400.
In September, the country recorded as many as 8 cases of food poisoning, infecting 121 people. From December 17, 2015 to September 17, 2016, the country had 100 cases of serious food poisoning, infecting 3,025 people, including nine deaths.
5. Cultural and sport activities
Several cultural activities were carried out in the first nine months to celebrate major public holidays, important events of the country and the success of the XIIth National Party Congress, the general election of deputies to the National Assembly and all-level People's Councils for the 2016-2021 tenure. Cultural activities were organized in different forms to ensure their practicality and cost-efficiency and create an exciting and joyful atmosphere among the people. Besides, cultural activities featuring the country’s sea and islands continued to be held in many places in order to propagate the Party’s guidelines and policies to protect Vietnam's independence, sovereignty, unity, territorial integrity, raise the people's awareness and strengthen national unity. Festival management was prioritized to promote the positive effects of traditional festivals and in accordance with the cultural traditions of the nation and inspections were done to detect and deal with festivals that showed violations or failed to ensure security and environmental sanitation.
In the first nine months of the year, the sports sector continued to maintain and promote the national campaign “All people do physical exercise following Uncle Ho’s example” with the main aim of holding the "Olympic Run Day 2016 for people’s health”. The sector coordinated with ministries, branches and localities in organizing the Child Drowning Prevention Action Plan in the 2016 – 2020 period and the Phu Dong Ninth Sports Festival in some regions. Many public physical exercise and sport activities were organized to create a joyful atmosphere during the festivals and the Tet Holiday. At the Rio 2016 Paralympics, Vietnam’s paralympians won one gold medal, one silver medal and two bronze medals, ranking the 55th among 83 countries participating in the games.
High performance sport activities in the first nine months of this year achieved remarkable results: Vietnam for the first time won one gold medal and one silver medal and ranked the 48th among 206 countries and territories participating the Rio 2016 Olympic Games; one gold medal, two silver medals and five bronze medals at the Asian Powerlifting Championships 2016; two silver medals and one bronze medal at the World Cup Gymnastics; two gold medals, three silver medals and two bronze medals at the Asian Youth Athletics Championships, meaning three young athletes are qualified to attend the World Youth Championships in Athletics; one bronze medal at the World Shooting Championships; 44 gold medals, 21 silver medals and 26 bronze medals at the Southeast Asian Senior Wrestling Championships; one gold medal and two silver medals at the Asian Chess Championships;12 gold medals, six silver medals and four bronze medals at the Asian Pencak Silat Championships; 14 gold medals, 8 silver medals and 11 bronze medals at the South East Asia Karate Championships; eight gold medals, two silver medals and 02two bronze medals at the Southeast Asian Archery Championships.
6. Traffic accidents
In September (from May 16 to September 15), the country recorded 1,867 traffic accidents, including 827 less or more serious traffic accidents and 1,040 collisions, killing 682 people; injuring 504 and hurting 1,237 others. As compared with the same period last year, the number of traffic accidents was up 1.6% (the number of traffic accidents dropped by 0.6% while the number of collisions rose by 3.5%); the number of deaths decreased by 2.2%; the number of injured people went up 5.2% and the number of slightly injured people was up 1.7%.
Generally in the first nine months of 2016, the country recorded as many as 15,411 traffic accidents, including 7,473 less or more serious traffic accidents and 7,938 collisions, killing 6,440 people, injuring 4,285 and wounding 9,188 others. As compared to the same period last year, the number of traffic accidents in the first nine months of 2016 dropped by 7.6% (the number of less or more serious traffic was down 1.8% while the number of traffic collisions declined by 12.5%) and the number of deaths and injureds slumped by 2% and 2.7%, respectively while the number of slightly wounded people decreased by 15%. On average, as many as 56 traffic accidents were reported a day nationwide, including 27 less or more serious traffic accidents and 29 traffic collisions, killing 23 people, injuring 16 and hurting 33 others.
7. Damage caused by natural disasters [22]
In the first nine months of 2016, prolonged severe cold spells, storms, tropical depressions and heavy rain affected production activities and people's life in many provinces and cities across the country. According to preliminary reports, calamities caused 125 people dead or missing; 266 people injured; more than 3,500 houses collapsed and washed away; 95,900 houses flooded, blown off or unroofed; 227,300 hectares of rice, 59,200 hectares of vegetables and 23,900 hectares of aquatic farming damaged; 37,500 animals, 256,100 fowls and more than 826 tons of aquatic species dead. The most affected localities included Lao Cai with 29 people dead and missing, 12 others injured, nearly 2,000 houses collapsed, washed away or unroofed, 12,800 hectares of rice and vegetables damaged; Thai Binh with 46 people injured, 3,400 houses collapsed, washed away or unroofed, 42,000 hectares of rice & vegetables and 9,800 hectares of aquatic farming damaged; Nam Dinh with 19,200 houses collapsed, washed away or unroofed, 83,300 hectares of rice & vegetables and 4.3 thousand hectares of aquatic farming damaged. The total value of damage in the first nine months was estimated at 10.5 trillion, including VND2.6 trillion in Thai Binh and VND2.4 trillion in Nam Dinh.
8. Environmental protection and fire prevention
In September, as many as 1,260 violations of the regulations on environmental protection were detected, of which 886 cases were handled with a total fine of more than VND11.3 billion. Generally, in the first nine months of the year, 10,995 violations of the regulations on environmental protection were found, of which 5,444 cases were enforced with a total fine of over VND428.8 billion.
In September, the country recorded 187 fires and explosions, killing 10 people and injuring 7 others with the total value of damage of VND32.3 billion. In the first nine months of the year, the country had 2,460 fires and explosions, killing 90 persons and injuring 216 others with the total value of damage of VND1,058 billion.
Generally, despite the difficulties and challenges confronting the country in the first nine months of 2016, positive changes, including macroeconomic stability, controlled inflation, stable interest rates and exchange rates; improved investment and business environment; higher number of newly established enterprises and companies resuming operations; higher number of international tourists attracted, were noticed. Labour, employment, social security issues were prioritized and positive results were produced. However, in spite of these important achievements, the local economy encountered numerous difficulties and challenges: The growth rate was not high as expected, exports and imports were not much improved, forest fires and deforestation were not completely tackled. People in localities affected natural disasters and environmental pollution struggled with many difficulties.
To fulfil the socio-economic development objectives of 2016 and create momentum for the successful implementation of the Five-year Socio-economic Development Plan for the 2016-2020 period, in time to come, administrative levels, sectors and localities should continue to implement solutions adopted by the Government and directions of the Prime Minister in a uniform and effective manner and focus on solving difficulties and creating favourable conditions for production development and promoting entrepreneurship. The major contents are as follows:
First, continuing to implement an active and flexible monetary policy and manage interest rates in line with exchange rate movements of the international and local money markets. Strengthening and effectively carrying out measures to prevent tax losses and reduce tax arrears to improve state budget revenues. Closely controlling public spending and cutting regular expenditures.
Second, promoting agricultural restructuring and developing the rural economy in conjunction with the building of a new countryside, focusing on shifting the agricultural production structure to adapt to climate change. Promoting the research and use of quality varieties; implementing intensive cultivation methods, applying science, technology and advanced techniques in order to improve productivity, quality and production efficiency. The government, ministries, sectors and localities should have medium and long term solutions to control saltwater intrusion and drought in the Mekong River Delta Region, central provinces and the Central Highlands because they are not just the phenomena of 2016. For the provinces affected by salinity intrusion in the Mekong River Delta Region and drought in the central region and the Central Highlands, they should research and change the production structure of industries, especially agriculture, forestry and aquaculture towards by forming large-scale intensive farming areas. They should also upgrade and dredge canals and irrigation works to prevent saltwater intrusion and build reservoirs to hold fresh water for production and people’s life.
Third, continuing solving problems confronting enterprises and create favourable conditions for them to develop and expand their domestic and export markets. Focusing on fiscal policies to help local start-ups grow and develop strongly. Facilitating the development of supporting industries, processing & manufacturing industries in association with the advantage in agricultural, forestry and fishery raw materials. Continuing to accelerate the process of restructuring and equitization of State-owned enterprises to ensure openness and transparency.
Fourth, encouraging and speeding up the export of competitive commodities and goods that have stable export markets. Promoting and well making market forecasts, intensifying trade promotion, searching for and expanding export markets, especially the country’s major agricultural exports. Understanding the legal framework of the market, particularly food hygiene and safety and technical barriers to actively develop timely corrective measures. Actively and effectively implementing international integration commitments, especially the ASEAN Community framework, the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and other free trade agreements.
Fifth, implementing social security and social welfare policies. Effectively carrying out the national target program on sustainable poverty reduction in the 2016-2020 period. Continuing to providing support for those affected by natural disasters; compensating those affected by the recent massive fish kills in the central region to overcome the consequences and stabilize their life and production activities as soon as possible
THE GENERAL STATISTICS OFFICE
[1] In June 2016, the World Bank lowered its forecast for global economic growth in 2016 to 2.4% from the 2.9% growth forecast in January 2016.
[2] The production index of the mining industry increased by 0.2% in QI while decreased by 5.3% and 6.8% in QII and QIII, respectively.
[3] The growth rate of the first sector in the first nine months of 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014 and 2015 was 3.95%, 2.75%, 2.38%,2.94% and 2.08%, respectively.
[4] The contribution of the sectors to GDP growth in the first nine months of 2015 as follows: The first sector contributed 0.40 percentage points; the second sector contributed 3.20 percentage points; the third sector contributed 2.43 percentage points.
[5] Of which the converted area of Hung Yen was 1,269 ha; Hanoi 247 ha; Hai Duong 182 ha; Thanh Hoa 178 ha, Hai Phong 34 ha.
[6] The area converted to serve irrigation and welfare works of Bac Ninh was 650 ha; Hanoi 357 ha, Haiphong 239 ha; Thanh Hoa 201 ha.
[7] Fishing production of Ha Tinh in the first nine months of the year decreased by 3,660 ton (down 14.4%); Quang Binh by 6,000 tons (down 13.4%); Quang Tri by 4,800 tons (down 27.1%), Thua Thien - Hue by 7,200 tons (down 23.9%).
[8] In the first nine months of 2015, the IPI of the mining industry surged by 8.6%; the processing & manufacturing industry by 10.2%; the electricity generation and distribution industry by 11.4%; the water supply and waste & sewage treatment industry by 7.2%.
[9] The PPI of the processing & manufacturing industry soared by 9.4% in QI; by 11.1% in QII; by 11% in QIII; 10.2% in the first six months; by 10.1% in the first seven months; by 10.2% in the first eight months; by 10.4% in the first nine months.
The respective PPI increase of the electricity generation and distribution was 12.4%; 10.2%; 13.2%; 11.2%; 11.8%; 12.3%; 12.1%.
The respective PPI increase of the water supply and waste & sewage treatment industry: 8.8%; 6.1%; 7%; 6.9%; 6.9%; 6.8%; 6.9%.
[10] Source: The National Business Registration System – the Ministry of Planning and Investment.
[11] The first nine months of 2016 there were VND1,160.4 trillion of additionally registered capital, bringing the total registered and additional capital to the economy in the first nine months to VND1,789.5 trillion.
[12] Mainly because the iron and steel complex and Son Duong Formosa deep-water completed the first construction phase, but due to the marine environmental incident in the central provinces, they have not put into operation.
[13] State budget revenues as of September 15, 2016 were equal to 57% of the estimate while local budget revenues were equivalent to 77.8% of the estimate.
[14] Rice exports in the first nine months of 2016 to two major markets namely China and Indonesia decreased over the same period last year and the Chinese market required higher quality rice imported from Vietnam. The expansion to new markets such as the US and the EU is a hard task because Vietnam’s rice does meet quality requirements of these markets and its competitiveness is lower than other major rice exporters. Exports to African markets encountered difficulties in transportation due to geographical distance, which led to high prices.
[15] The trade deficit from China in the first nine months of 2016 was US$21.3 billion, down 12.5% YoY.
[16] The trade surplus was estimated US$200 million.
[17] Food prices rose by 0.16% as Vietnam won a bid for 150,000 tons of rice exports to the Philippines by the end of August; Fresh vegetable prices surged by 10% -15% due to the rainy season; foodstuff prices rose by 0.1%.
[18] The CPI in the first nine months of this year as compared with the same period of several years was as follows: up 22.76% in 2008; up 7.64% in 2009; up 8.64% in 2010; up 18.16% in 2011; 9.96% in 2012; up 6.83% in 2013; up 4.61% in 2014.
[19] The merchandise export price index against the merchandise import price index.
[20] Labourers with informal jobs other than the agricultural, forestry and fishery industry included people who are not working in the agriculture industry and belonged to one of the three following groups: (i) Family workers who are not paid salary; (ii) owners or members of cooperatives of establishments without business registration and (iii) employed workers who do not sign employment contracts or sign limited-time employment contracts but not get compulsory social insurance contribution by their employers.
[21] The Decision No. 59/2015/QD-TTg dated November 19, 2015 by the Prime Minister promulgating multidimensional poverty levels applicable during 2016-2020 as follows:
- Poor households in rural areas are those that satisfy one of the two following norms: (1) Having a monthly per capita income of VND 700,000 or lower and (2) Having a monthly per capita income of between over VND 700,000 and VND 1,000,000 and deprived of at least 3/10 indicators measuring deprivation of access to basic social services;
- Poor households in urban areas are those that satisfy one of the two following norms: (1) Having a monthly per capita income of VND 900,000 or lower and (2) Having a monthly per capita income of between over VND 900,000 and VND 1,300,000 and deprived of at least 3/10 indicators measuring deprivation of access to basic social services.
[22] Not to mention the damage caused by serious drought and saltwater intrusion in the South Central Coastal Region, the Central Highlands and the Mekong River Delta Region.
Ministry of Planning and Investment