Socio-economic situation in the first six months of 2016
Vietnam’s socio-economic development in the first six months of 2016 took place in the context of increased global economic growth but at a slower pace. China's economy continued to decline while developed economies such as the US, Japan and the EU posted weak growth. World commodity prices remained low while global trade and investment became stagnant with a fall in capital flows and unpredictable fluctuations in the international financial and money markets, which had an impact on the local economy, especially export activities and State budget revenues.
Despite the advantages brought about by the positive signs in 2015, Vietnam's economy encountered a number of difficulties and challenges because of complicated weather conditions and climate and marine environment changes. Extreme and damaging cold spells in Northern provinces, severe drought and salinization in the Central Highlands, the Southern central region and the Mekong Delta and massive fish kills in central provinces heavily affected production activities and people's life.
Given these circumstances, the Government guided and directed sectors and localities to focus on the effective and comprehensive implementation of the Resolution No. 01/NQ-CP dated January 7, 2016 of the Government on major tasks and solutions guiding and directing the realization of the Plan for Socio-economic Development and State Budget Estimate in 2016. At the same time, the business environment needed to be improved and active and effective measures to be carried out to cope with the impact of climate change in order to minimize damage losses and stabilize people’s life and promote production activities. The country’s sectors and industries recorded the following achievements in the first six months of the year:
ECONOMIC GROWTH
Gross domestic product (GDP) growth
GDP in the first six months of 2016 was estimated to grow by 5.52% YoY, of which the growth rate in QI and QII was 5.48% and 5.55%, respectively. Of the 5.52% growth rate, the industry and construction sector rose by 7.12% (up 7.16% and 7.09% in QI and QII, respectively), contributing 2.41 percentage points to the overall growth; the service sector soared by 6.35% (up 5.98% and 6.68% in QI and QII, respectively), contributing 2.38 percentage points to the overall growth. Meanwhile the agriculture, forestry and fishery sector fell by 0.18% (down 1.31% in QII and up 0.36% in QII), leading to a 0.03 percentage point decrease in the overall growth rate. Though the GDP growth in the first six months of the year was higher than that recorded in the same period of 2012, 2013 and 2014[1], there were signs of a slowdown as compared with the 6.32% growth rate in the first six months of 2015.
The agriculture, forestry and fishery sector reported a lower growth rate in the first six months against the same period last year mainly due to a 0.78% reduction in the agricultural industry (which accounted for over 75% of the added value of the sector). It was because the winter-spring rice production output this year reached only 19.4 million tons, 1.3 million tons lower (down 6.4%) as compared to the 2015 winter-spring crop. The added value of the forestry and fishery industry rose by 5.75% and 1.25%, respectively.
Of the industry and construction sector, the industry sector surged by 6.82%, much lower than the 9.66% increase recorded in the same period last year, mainly due to a 2.20% decrease in the mining industry (up 8.48% in the first six months of 2015). The processing and manufacturing industry added 10.1%, equivalent to the increase in the same period of 2015. The electric power generation and distribution industry and the water supply and waste & sewage treatment industry recorded a good growth of 11.7% and 8.10%, respectively. The construction sector in the first six months grew by 8.8%, the highest rate since 2010[2].
The service sector in the six months of this year reached the highest growth rate since 2012 [3]. Certain industries posted a good YoY growth rate: wholesale and retail rose by 8.1%; finance, banking and insurance by 6.1%; information and communication by 8.76%; health care and social relief by 7.30%; arts, entertainment and recreation by 7.20%; education and training 7.15%. The real estate business industry grew by 3.77%, the highest level since [4].
With regard to the economic structure in the first six months of this year, the agriculture, forestry and fishery sector made up 15.74%; the industry and construction sector 32.94%; the service sector 41.01% (taxes on products net of subsidies on products 10.31%). The economic structure in the same period of 2015 was 16.70%, 33.52%, 39.57% (taxes 10.21%).
Concerning the use of GDP in the first six months of the year, final consumption soared by 6.98% against the same period of 2015, contributing 5.09 percentage points to the overall growth; accumulated assets by 10%, contributing 2.65 percentage points; balance of import and export reduced 2.22 percentage points of the overall growth.
|
GDP growth rates in the first six months of
2014, 2015 and 2016
|
|
YoY
change (%)
|
Contributions by sectors to the overall growth in the first six months of 2016
(Percentage points)
|
|
|
First 6 months of 2014
|
First 6 months of 2015
|
First 6 months of 2016
|
|
Total
|
5.22
|
6.32
|
5.52
|
5.52
|
|
Agriculture, forestry and fishery sector
|
2.90
|
2.22
|
-0.18
|
-0.03
|
|
Industry and construction sector
|
5.12
|
9.36
|
7.12
|
2.41
|
|
Service sector
|
5.82
|
5.86
|
6.35
|
2.38
|
|
Taxes on products net of subsidies on products
|
7.19
|
5.50
|
6.60
|
0.76
|
|
Agriculture, forestry and fishery
The production value of the agriculture, forestry and fishery sector as calculated at 2010 constant prices in the first six months of this year was estimated to reach VND397.4 trillion, down 0.1% YoY, of which the agriculture industry gained VND297.2 trillion, down 0.7%; the forestry industry totaled VND13.3 trillion, up 5.8%; the fishery industry raked in VND86.9 trillion, up 1.3%.
Agriculture
The country’s estimated winter-spring rice farming area was 3,081.5 thousand hectares, 31.3 thousand hectares lower as compared with the same crop last year, of which the cultivated area in Northern provinces totaled 1,154.9 thousand hectares, 7.4 thousand hectares lower and that in the South was 1,926.6 thousand hectares, 23.9 hectares lower. Preliminary reports showed that the winter-spring rice yield this year of the country was estimated at 62.9 quintals/hectare, 3.6 quintals/hectare lower than the winter-spring crop of 2015; the total rice production output reached 19.4 million tons, 1.3 million tons lower than the winter-spring crop of the previous year. Production of winter-spring crop this year decreased as compared with the previous winter-spring crop in terms of area, yield and output mainly due to prolonged cold and frosty weather in the North and drought and salinization in Southern provinces, particularly the Mekong Delta region.
As of June 15, Northern provinces harvested 859.7 thousand hectares of winter-spring rice, accounting for 74% of the cultivated area and equaling 82.2% of the figure recorded in the same period last year. According to local authorities, the estimated rice yield reached 62.6 quintals/hectare, 0.5 quintals/hectare higher than the 2015 winter-spring crop while rice production output totaled 7.2 million tons, up 0.2%. The southern provinces completed the harvesting of the winter-spring rice crop with the estimated rice yield of 63 quintals/hectare, 6.1 quintals/hectares lower as compared to the previous winter-spring crop and the rice production output of 12.2 million tons, 1.3 million tons lower (the rice production output of the Mekong Delta region neared 10 million tons, 1.1 million tons lower than the previous winter-spring crop).
Along with the harvesting of the winter-spring rice crop, as of mid-June, provinces nationwide cultivated 1,816.5 thousand hectares of summer-autumn rice, equal to 98.1% of the same period last year. Of the total, the rice farming area of the Mekong Delta region was 1,521.5 thousand hectares, equaling 102.9% of the same period of 2015. The early harvested area of the summer-autumn rice crop in the Mekong Delta region reached 314.6 thousand hectares, up 42.9% against the same period last year.
Due to the adverse effects of unfavorable weather conditions, the farming area of most other annual crops was low. As of mid-June, localities across the country planted 711.8 thousand hectares of maize, equaling 92.4% of the same period last year; 88.9 thousand hectares of potato, equivalent to 94.1% of the same period last year; 43.9 thousand hectares of soybean, or 76.2%; 157.2 thousand hectares of peanut, or 100.7%; 673 thousand hectares of vegetables, or 102.5%.
Reports from localities showed that the output of some perennial plants increased slightly over the same period last year due to the increased area of productive trees: The output of tea totaled 454.7 thousand tons, up 0.4% (the area of productive tea trees was up 0.6%); rubber 320.3 thousand tons, up 1.7% (its area was up 0.8%); pepper 153.2 thousand tons, up 5.6% (its area was extended by 17.9%) whereas the output of cashew nuts was estimated at 303.5 thousand tons, down 9.9% since the area reduced by 1.4% and the crop was affected by drought and pestilent insects.
The husbandry industry in the first six months faced a number of difficulties and challenges due to the extreme and damaging cold weather in Northern provinces and drought in the Central Highlands and South Central Coast. As of June, there were 2.52 million buffalos nationwide, down 1.1% YoY; 5.34 million cows, up 1.6%, including 279 thousand dairy cows, up 10%; 28.3 million pigs, up 3.9% and 341.5 million fowls, up 4.3%. The output of live-weight buffalo meat for slaughter in the first six months was estimated at 49.7 thousand tons, down 0.5% YoY; the output of live-weight beef for slaughter at 183.4 thousand steam tons, up 2% YoY; the output of live-weight pork for slaughter at 2.15 million tons, up 4.7% YoY; the output of poultry at 541.3 thousand tons, up 4.9%; fresh milk output at 381.4 thousand tons, up 7.4%; the output of poultry eggs at 5,255 million, up 5.3%.
Diseases occurred sporadically in some localities in the first months of the year, but on a small scale. As of June 23, 2016, there is no avian flu or blue ear pig disease outbreak nationwide; a foot and mouth disease outbreak over the last 21 days was reported in Tien Giang.
Forestry
The concentrated afforestation area in the first six months was estimated to reach 86.9 thousand hectares, up 2.2% YoY; The attended afforestation area totaled 351 thousand hectares in the months, down 2.5% YoY; The allocated forest area was 4,710 thousand hectares, down 2%; The number of dispersedly planted trees totaled 110 million, down 0.9%; The reforestation area totaled 605 thousand hectares, equaling to the figure recorded in the same period last year.
The production of forest products in localities posted a good increase over the same period last year. Wood production in the first six months reached 3,844 thousand m3, up 10.8% YoY, of which afforested wood production accounted for 99.6%; Firewood production totaled 15 million stes, up 0.7%. Some provinces reported high wood production, including Tuyen Quang with 351 thousand m3, up 86.7%; Thanh Hoa with 213 thousand m3, up 19.3%; Thua Thien - Hue with 190 thousand m3, up 27.6%; Quang Tri with 146 thousand m3, up 20%. The rise in the wood production was primarily attributable to better wood quality that met export and consumption needs.
Forest protection and fire prevention & firefighting were paid due attention by administrative levels and sectors. However, due to prolonged dry and hot weather conditions, forest fires still occurred in some localities, particularly in Northern midlands and mountainous provinces. In the first six months of the year, the destroyed forest area reached 2,599 hectares, tripling the figure recorded in the same period last year, of which the burned forest area was 1,955 hectares, 3.5 times higher; the destroyed forest area totaled 644 hectares, 2.2 times higher. Some localities reported high burned forest area, including Dien Bien with 969 hectares; Son La with 452 hectares; Yen Bai with 194 hectares; Ha Giang with 156 hectares. Some provinces recorded high destroyed forest area, including Binh Dinh with 180 hectares; Dien Bien with 175 hectares; Quang Nam with 56 hectares.
Fishery
Fishing production in the first six months of the year was estimated to reach 3,131.3 thousand tons, up 1.9% YoY, of which there were 2,309.4 thousand tons of fish, up 2.2%; and 306 thousand tons of shrimps, down 2.5%. Aquaculture was affected by water environmental pollution, draught and salinization, especially in key farming areas in the Mekong Delta. The aquatic farming area in the first six months was estimated at 893 thousand hectares, down 3% YoY, of which the fish breeding area totaled 256.2 thousand hectares, down 2.2% while the shrimp farming area was 518.2 thousand hectares, down 3.5%. The aquatic production output in the six months was estimated at 1,586.4 thousand tons, up 0.7% YoY, including 1,191.4 thousand tons of fish, up 1.1% YoY and 226.6 thousand tons of shrimps, down 4% YoY.
Tra fish farmers continued experiencing difficulties in marketing the product as the price remained unstable while feed prices kept rising. The production output of Tra fish in the first six months was estimated at 519.6 thousand tons, down 3% YoY. Most of key Tra fish farming localities reported a lower production, including An Giang with 123.1 thousand tons, down 5.5%; Vinh Long with 43.3 thousand tons, down 8.2%; Can Tho with 58.5 thousand tons, down 1.3%.
Brackish water shrimp farming was affected by serious saltwater intrusion, water environment changes, slow growth, high susceptibility and low production output. Tiger prawn output in the first six months was estimated at 100.1 thousand tons, up 0.1% YoY; White leg shrimp output reached 97.5 thousand tons, down 10% YoY.
Weather conditions in the early months of the year were favorable for fishing activities. Localities adopted oil and credit support policies to help fishermen to build high-capacity offshore fishing boats. These policies encouraged local fishermen to go offshore. Fishing output in the first six months was estimated at 1,544,900 tons, up 3.2% YoY, including 1,118,000 tons of fishes, up 3.3% and 79,400 tons of shrimps, up 1.8%. Marine fishing output in the months was estimated to reach 1,459,500 tons, up 3.4% YoY, of which tuna output was 13,000 tons, equivalent to the figure recorded in the same period of 2015.
However, in late April, four Northern central coastal provinces, namely Ha Tinh, Quang Binh, Quang Tri and Thua Thien – Hue reported millions of dead fish washing up on the coast, which impacted consumer confidence and seafood consumption and discouraged many fishermen from fishing offshore. As a result, the fishing output of these provinces fell sharply as compared to the same period last year[5].
Industrial production
The Index of Industrial Production (IIP) in June was estimated to surge by 7.4% YoY, of which the mining industry was down 6.1%; the processing & manufacturing industry was up 11.3%; the electric power generation and supply industry up 10.8%; the water supply and waste & sewage treatment industry up 7.6%.
Generally in the first six months, the IIP rose by 7.5% YoY (the index in QI and QII added 7.6% and 7.5%, respectively), much lower than the 9.7% increase of the same period last year[6]. Of the industries, the processing & manufacturing industry grew by 10.1%, contributing 7.1 percentage points to the overall growth; the electric power generation and supply industry by 11.7%, contributing 0.8 percentage points; the water supply and waste & sewage treatment industry by 8.1%, contributing 0.1 percentage points. The mining industry dropped by 2.2% (mainly due to a 6.1% fall of crude oil production), reducing the overall growth by 0.5 percentage points.
Some secondary industries posted a higher production index in the first six months as compared with the same period last year: Production of metals was up 19.7% YoY; manufacture of electronic products, computers and optical products up 17.9%; manufacture of motor vehicles up 15.3%; textiles up 15%; production of beds, wardrobes, tables, chairs up 14.6%; production of other non-metallic mineral products up 14.1%; manufacture of rubber and plastic products up 12.9%; production of paper and paper products up 12.3%. Some industries posted low or reduced growth: Manufacture of apparel rose by 8.6%; manufacture of beverages by 7.9%; food processing and production by 7.6%; production of medicines, drugs and pharmaceuticals by 7%; electrical equipment manufacturing by 3.1%; coal mining by 3%; tobacco production by 2.5%; manufacture of leather and related products by 2.2%; while crude oil and natural gas production fell by 3.7%.
In the first six months of this year, some key products recorded a higher production index as compared with the same period last year: Production of televisions grew by 69.9%; automobiles by 27.2%; rolled steel by 22.7%; steel bars and steel angle bars by 22.1%; animal feed by 17.7%; cements by 17.7%; raw iron and steel by 15.1%. Some products posted a good growth: MSG was up 12%; production electricity up 11.5%; powdered milk up 11.4%; liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) up 11.3%; processed seafood up 9.2%. Some products recorded a low or decreased growth over the same period last year: Usual clothing rose by 5.3%; coal by 3%; cigarettes by 2.5% while motorcycles fell by 0.5%; urea by 4.2%; shoes, leather footwear by 4.5%; refined sugar by 5%; crude oil by 6.1%; mobile phones by 7.2%; NPK by 9.6%.
The IIP in the first six months of the year as compared with the same period of 2015 of some localities were as follows: That of Thai Nguyen was up 40.3%; Quang Nam up 35.8%; Can Tho up 24.6%; Hai Phong up 16.9%; Bac Ninh up 13.5%; Da Nang up 11.1%; Binh Duong up 8.4%; Hai Duong up 8.2%; Dong Nai up 7.9%; Hanoi up7.4%; Ho Chi Minh City up 6.9%; Vinh Phuc, up 6.1% while the IIP of Ba Ria-Vung Tau was down 2.1%.
The consumption index of the processing & manufacturing industry in May 2016 added 5.2% MoM and 7.8% YoY. Generally, the index in the first five months rose by 8.8% YoY. Some industries recorded a higher consumption index as compared to the same period of 2015: Manufacture of electronic products, computer and optical products rose by 15.2%; Manufacture of motor vehicles by 14.2%; production of metals by 13.7%; production of beds, wardrobes, tables, chairs by 13.1%; manufacture of other non-metallic mineral products by 12.5%; production of beverages by 10.4%. Some industries reported a low or decreased consumption index: Textiles went up 4.3%; manufacture of leather and related products up 3.6%; manufacture of paper and paper products up 2.5% while manufacture of chemicals and chemical products fell down 0.4%; tobacco production down 0.8%; manufacture of other transport vehicles down 2.1%.
The inventory index of the processing & manufacturing industry as of June 1, 2015 soared by 9% YoY (lower than the 11.8% increase of the same period last year), of which some industries recorded a lower or decreased inventory index as compared with the overall growth: manufacture of medicines, drugs and pharmaceuticals increased by 7.9%; production of leather and related products by 1.8% while production of beverages decreased by 9%; manufacture of prefabricated metal products (except for machinery and equipment) by 15.5%; production of electrical equipment by 23%; Tobacco production by 34.5%; manufacture of other transport vehicles by 53%. Some industries reported a higher inventory index than the overall growth: Manufacture of motor vehicles surged by 115.3%; manufacture of electronic products, computers and optical products by 69.6%; production of paper and paper products by 33.4%; manufacture of rubber and plastic products by 26.1%; apparel production by 17.3%; food production and processing by 16.3%.
The average inventory index of the processing & manufacturing sector in the first five months was 71.5% with some industries recording a high inventory index: the inventory index of fabricated metal products was 132.9%; chemicals and chemical products 118%; medicines, drugs and pharmaceuticals 113.7%.
The employment rate of industrial enterprises as of June 1, 2016 rose by 5.9% YoY, while that of State-owned corporations dropped by 0.4% and the number of people working for non-state companies increased by 3.6% and FDI companies by 8.9%. By that time, the employment rate of the mining industry fell by 3.6% YoY while that of the processing & manufacturing industry was up 6.7%. The employment rate of the electric power generation and supply industry decreased by 0.8% while that of the water supply and waste & sewage treatment industry added 2.9%.
The employment rate industrial enterprises as of June 1, 2016 as compared with the same period last year in some localities was as follows: The employment rate industrial enterprises in Thai Nguyen rose by 35%.3; Haiphong by 9.9%; Ba Ria-Vung Tau by 8.6%;Dong Nai by 8.3%; Binh Duong by 5.7%; Da Nang by 4.5%; Quang Nam by 4%; Vinh Phuc by 2.4%; Hai Duong by 1.5%; Ho Chi Minh City by 1.2%; Hanoi by 1.2% while that in Can Tho was down 0.2%; Quang Ngai down 7.3%.
Business activities
Business registration [7]
In June 2016, there were 9,761 newly established enterprises with a registered capital of VND78.3 trillion, down 2.6% in number and 22.6% in the amount of the registered capital MoM. The average registered capital of a company is VND8 billion, down 20.6%. The number of employees of these newly-established enterprises totaled 113.2 thousand, up 8.1%. As compared with the same period last year, the number of newly established businesses in June rose by 4.4% and the amount of registered capital surged by 22.2%.
In the month, as many as 1,903 companies resumed their operations nationwide, up 13.9% MoM and 5,365 those encountered difficulties and had to suspend their operations, up 27.6% (including 1,621 registered enterprises suspending their operations for a definite period and 3,744 companies temporarily closed down waiting for closure of business codes or for non-registration); 864 those completed dissolution & termination procedures, down 2.3%.
Generally, in the first six months of this year, the country had 54,501 newly registered enterprises with a total registered capital of VND427.8 trillion, up 20% in number and 51.5% in the amount of registered capital as compared with the same period last year[8]. The average registered capital of a newly established business in the first six months of the year was VND7.8 billion, up 26.2% YoY. In addition, there were 16,125 enterprises raising their capital with the total additionally registered capital of VND774.7 trillion. As a result, the total newly and additionally registered capital in the first six months of 2016 amounted to VND1,202.5 trillion. The sharp increase in the number of newly-established enterprises and the registered capital amount in the first six months of the year over the same period last year proved the positive effects of the Enterprise Law and the Investment Law and efficient solutions of the government to boost entrepreneur spirit and create confidence among the business community and investors.
The number of enterprises resumed their operations in the first six months totaled 14,902, up 75.2% YoY – the highest growth in the past years (the number rose by 2.2% YoY in the first six months of 2015). In the first six months of the year, as many as 5,507 enterprises completed dissolution & termination procedures, representing a YoY increase of 17% (the figure was down 0.9% YoY in the same period of 2014), including 5,129 companies with a registered capital of less than VND10 billion, accounting for 93.1% of the total and rising by 16.9%. According to business types, among the enterprises that completed dissolution & termination procedures, there were 2,210 one-member limited liability companies (accounting for 40.1%); 1,656 two-member limited liability companies (making up 30.1%); 913 private enterprises (accounting for 16.6%), 727 joint-stock companies (representing 13.2%) and one partnership company.
There were 31,119 companies facing difficulties and being forced to suspend their operations in the first six months of the year, up 15.0% YoY, including 12,203 enterprises registered for suspension of their operations for a definite period of time, up 37.1%; 18,153 enterprises temporarily closed down waiting for closure of business codes or for non-registration, up 4.2%. Among the enterprises encountering difficulties and being forced to suspend their operations, there were 4,518 one-member limited liability companies (accounting for 37.1%); 4,301 two-member limited liability companies (making up 35.2%); 2,129 joint stock companies (occupying 17.4%) and 1,255 private enterprises (representing 10.3%). Among the companies that were temporarily closed down waiting for closure of business codes or for non-registration, there were 7,716 one-member limited liability companies (accounting for 40.8%); 5,995 two-member limited liability companies (accounting for 31.7%); 3,421 joint stock companies (18.1%) and 1,784 private enterprises (9.4%).
Business trends of enterprises
The survey on business trends of companies engaged in the processing & manufacturing industry in QII revealed that 41.8% of the companies said that the production and business situation in QII was much better than QI; 18.9% of the companies showed that they encountered difficulties and 39.3% of the businesses thought the production and business situation was stable. When projecting the trend in QIII as compared with QII, 47.7% of the businesses said that the trend would be improved; 13.2% of the companies forecast the trend would become worse and 39.1% of the enterprises expected their production and business situation would be stable.
With regard to production volume, as much as 45.3% of the companies said that their production volume in QII rose from the previous quarter; 18.6% of the businesses reported their production volume fell while 36.1% of the enterprises thought the production volume was stable. When forecasting the production volume in QIII against QII, 49.5% of the companies expected an increased production volume; 12.2% of the companies thought it would fall while 38.3% of the businesses said it would remain stable.
With respect to purchase orders, as much as 39.3% of the enterprises reported a higher number of purchase orders; 18.2% of the companies recorded a lower number of purchase orders while 42.5% of the businesses had a stable number of purchase orders. QIII’s trends were more optimistic than QII’s with 44.1% of the companies expecting more orders; 12.0% of the companies projecting fewer orders and 43.9% of the businesses forecasting a stable number of orders.
Regarding export orders in QII as compared with QI, 30.0% of the enterprises reported a higher number of export orders; 19% of the companies recorded a lower number of export orders and 51.0% had a stable number of export orders. As much as 38.2% of the companies expected more export orders in QIII; 12.1% of the companies forecast less export orders and 49.7% of the businesses projected a stable number of export orders.
As to production costs, 23.1% of the enterprises said that production costs per product in QII rose against QI; 9.7% of the companies confirmed lowered costs and 67.2% of the businesses reported stable costs. When projecting QIII’ trends, 17% of the businesses expected higher production costs in QIII over QII; 10.5% of the companies said production costs would decline and 72.5% of the companies forecast stable production costs.
Regarding product prices in QII as compared with the previous quarter, as much as 16.0% of the companies recorded rising product prices; 10.9% of the enterprises offered lower prices and 73.1% of the companies kept prices stable. When forecasting QIII’s trends, 15.1% of the companies expected higher product prices; 9.2% of companies forecast lower prices while 75.7% of enterprises thought they would keep product prices unchanged.
With respect to product inventories in QII of this year as compared with the previous quarter, 19.1% of the companies reported higher inventories; 31.8% of the companies recorded reduced inventory levels and 49.1% of the companies had stable inventories. When projecting QIII’s trends, 14.7% of the companies forecast higher inventories than QII; 29.7% of the businesses expected lower inventories and 55.6% of the businesses reported stable inventories.
With regard to material inventories in QII as compared with QI, 17.1% of the companies reported increased material inventories; 30.2% of the businesses had lower material inventories and 52.7% of them recorded stable material inventories. As much as 14.2% of companies expected higher material inventories; 28.1% of the enterprises forecast lower material inventories while 57.7% of the companies said that their material inventories would not fluctuate.
Regarding employment in QII as compared with the previous quarter, 18.3% of the enterprises confirmed a higher number of employees; 12.8% of the enterprises said the number of employees and 68.9% of the companies confirmed an unchanged number of employees. As much as 18.2% of the companies forecast an increased number of personnel in QIII against QII; 8.0% of the companies expected it to decline while 73.8% of the enterprises said it would remain unchanged.
Generally, in the last six months of 2016, most of the businesses were optimistic about their production and business situation in the last six months of 2016 as compared with the first half of the year. As much as 55.4% of the companies forecast increased production volume; 9.3% of the companies said that their production volume would fall and 35.3% of the companies said it would remain stable. In terms of purchase orders, 48.5% of the businesses expected the number of purchase orders to increase; 9.5% of the companies said it would decrease and 42.0% of the enterprises thought it would be unchanged; 42.1% of the companies said the number of export orders would be higher while 9.4% and 48.5% of them expected it to decline and remain stable, respectively. When expecting their employment scale, 26.5% of the businesses expected the number of employees to increase while 7.0% and 66.5% of them said the number of employees would be higher and unchanged, respectively.
Service activities
Retail sales of consumer goods and services
Total retail sales of consumer goods and services in June were estimated at VND295.8 trillion, up 3% MoM and up 11% YoY. Retail sales of goods in the month reached VND222.6 trillion, up 1.8% MoM and up 11.2 % YoY, of which sales of accommodation and catering services totaled VND35.9 trillion, up 10.9% and up 9.8%; revenues from tourism and travel reached VND3.3 trillion, up 24.8% and up 18.5%; sales of other services amounted to VND34 trillion, representing a MoM and YoY increase of 1.4% and 10.8%, respectively.
Total retail sales of consumer goods and services in the first six months of the year was estimated at VND1,724 trillion, up 9.5% YoY. If the price factor was excluded, they would surge 7.5% YoY, lower than the 8.8% increase of the same period of 2015.
Retail sales of goods in the first six months was estimated at VND1,314.3 trillion, accounting for 76.2% of the total and increasing 9.8% YoY. Some provinces and cities reported a good increase in total sales: That of Binh Duong were up 20.1%; Nam Dinh up 17.5%; Thanh Hoa up 14.9%; Khanh Hoa up 14.9%; Quang Nam up 14.7%; An Giang up 14.2%; Bac Giang up 14.1%; Haiphong up 13.2%. If classified by sectors, total retail sales of food and foodstuff rose by 13.1%; apparel by 12.2%; household appliances, tools and equipment by 10%; transport vehicles by 9.1%; cultural and educational products only by 0.8%.
Sales of accommodation and catering services in the first six months of the year totaled VND195.5 trillion, accounting for 11.3% of the total and increasing 7.4% YoY. Of the sum, that of Da Nang was up 11.6%, Hanoi up 10.5%, Ho Chi Minh City up 9.7%; Khanh Hoa, up 7.6%; and Binh Duong up 6.5%.
Revenues from tourism and travel in the first six months were estimated at VND15 trillion, accounting for 0.9% of the total and surging 9.6% YoY. Of the sum, revenues from tourism and travel of Hanoi rose by 11.8%; Ha Nam by 10.9%; Ho Chi Minh City by 8.7%; Vinh Long by 8.5%; Thua Thien-Hue by 6.2%.
Sales from other services in the first six months were estimated to reach VND199.2 trillion, accounting for 11.6% of the total and increasing 9.2% YoY. Some provinces reported a sharp increase in sales from other services: Thanh Hoa reported an increase of 19.6%; Quang Ninh 14.6%; Binh Dinh 11.6%; Ho Chi Minh City 11.2%; Bac Giang 10.5%; Hanoi 5.7%.
Carriage of passengers and cargos
Passenger carriage in the first six months was estimated at 1,805.2 million arrivals, up 9.2% YoY and 84.2 billion passengers-kilometers, up 8.8% YoY. Of the sum, estimated passenger transportation by road in the first six months totaled 1,695.2 million, up 9.4% and 56.7 billion passengers-kilometers, up 7.8% YoY; transportation by air reached 19.7 million passengers, up 26.3% and 24.1 billion passengers-kilometers, up 14.1%; transportation by railway reached 5.1 million passengers, down 12.2% and 1.9 billion passengers-kilometers, down 15.3%; transportation by sea was 3 million passengers, up 3.2% and 153.2 million kilometers, up 2.6%.
Cargo carriage in the first six months of the year was estimated at 617 million tons, up 8% and 118.5 billion tons-kilometers, up 3.1% YoY. Of which domestic transportation totaled 600.6 million tons, up 8.2% and 53.6 billion tons-kilometers, up 5.6%; overseas transportation reached 16.4 million tons, up 1.3% and 64.9 billion tons-kilometers, up 1.1%. Cargo transportation by road was estimated at 478.9 million tons, up 9.4% and 28.9 billion tons-kilometers, up 11.8%; by river 106 million tons, up 4.0% and 21.9 billion tons-kilometers, up 4.5%; by sea 29.4 million tons, up 1.3% and 65.8 billion tons-kilometers, up 0.1%; by railway 2.6 million tons, up 22% and 1.6 billion tons-kilometers, down 23.8%.
Telecommunications
Telecommunication sales in the first six months of 2016 were estimated to reach VND190.8 trillion, up 7.3% YoY. The total number of telephone subscribers as of the end of June 2016 was estimated at 127.1 million, down 2% YoY. Of the sum, mobile phone subscribers reached 121.3 million, down 1.8% while land line phone subscribers totaled 5.8 million, down 6.5% YoY. The number of fixed broadband Internet subscribers was estimated to be 8.5 million, up 26.3% YoY.
International visitors to Vietnam
International visitors to Vietnam in June were estimated at 700,400, down 7.5% MoM and up 29.8% YoY, of which arrivals by air and road was down 2.4% MoM and up 49.9% YoY; by road down 35.1% MoM and down 40.2% YoY; by sea down 43% MoM and down 39.4% YoY.
Generally in the first six months of the year, international visitors to the country were estimated at 4,706,300 arrivals, up 21.3% YoY, of which arrivals by air at 3,920,100, up 25.9%; by road at 711,400, up 7.5%; by sea at 74,800, down 27.8%.
In the first six months, arrivals from Asian countries reached 3,342,900, up 25.7% YoY, while visitors from most major markets increased: Visitors from China totaled 1,204,500 arrivals, up 47.9% YoY; South Korea 741.1 thousand, up 34%; Japan 355,900, up 12.4%; Taiwan 242,400, up 15.8%; Malaysia 199,800 thousand, up 14.9%; Thailand 135,800, up 35.3%; Singapore 124,700, up 12.7%.
Visitors from Europe were estimated at 780.2 thousand arrivals, up 13.8% YoY, while Those from the Russian Federation reached 204,400, up 21.1%; the United Kingdom 128,300, up 24.6%; France 124,000, up 13.8%; Germany 86,900, up 17.1%; the Netherlands 27,200 up 22.3%; Italy 24.4 thousand, up 30.1%; Sweden 23,000, up 24.7%.
Visitors from the Americas reached 387,100, up 12.4% YoY, of which arrivals from the United States totaled 293,000, up 14.5% YoY. Those from Australasia were 182,900, up 4.9% YoY of which arrivals from Australia totaled 165,100, up 6.7%. Those from Africa reached 13,200, down 8.2% YoY.
MACROECONOMIC STABILIZATION & INFLATION CONTROL
Banking and insurance
As of June 20, 2016, the total means of payment increased by 8.07% over the end of 2015 (5.09% increase in the same period last year). Capital mobilization of credit institutions grew by 8.23% (up 4.58% in the same period last year); credit growth of the economy reached 6.2% (up 6.28% in the same period last year). Interest rate was relatively stable. VND deposit rates was commonly at 4.5% to 5.4% per year for the period under 6 months; that of six-month or more deposits was at 5.4% to 7.2% per year.
The local insurance market sustained positive growth in the first six months of the year. There were 61 insurance companies operating in the market. Insurance premium revenues of the whole market in QII were estimated to rise by 26% over the same period last year, of which non-life insurance premium revenues grew by 16% while life insurance premium revenues increased by 35%.
Construction and investment
Construction
The production value of construction at current prices in the first six months of 2016 reached VND456 trillion, of which the state sector raked in VND35.9 trillion, accounting for 7.9%; the non-state sector generated VND394.2 trillion, making up 86.4%; and the FDI sector obtained VND25.9 trillion, accounting for 5.7%. Of the sum, the production value of construction of residential buildings reached VND179.8 trillion, accounting for 39.4%; non-residential buildings VND76.9 trillion, making up 16.9%; civil engineering works VND147.4 trillion, accounting for 32.3%; specialized construction activities VND51.9 trillion, making up 11.4%.
The production value of construction in the first six months at 2010 constant prices was estimated to reach VND360.9 trillion, up 1.8% YoY, of which the State sector generated VND28.9 trillion, up 1.8%; the non-state sector VND311 trillion, up 10.7%; and the FDI sector VND21 trillion, down 8.4%, mainly because the Formosa Steel Complex project in Ha Tinh Province was basically completed, no construction activity was reported. Of the total production value, the production value of construction of residential buildings totaled VND141.4 trillion, up 9.1%; non-residential buildings VND61 trillion, down 0.6%; civil engineering works VND116.6 trillion, up 11.6%; specialized construction activities VND41.9 trillion, up 14.1%.
Development Investment
The total realized social investment capital at current prices in the first six months was estimated at VND618.2 trillion, up 11.7% YoY and equal to 32.9% of GDP. Of which the state sector disbursed VND229.3 trillion, accounting for 37.1% of the total and increasing 6.5% YoY; the non-state sector VND230.7 trillion, accounting for 37.3% and up 14.7%; the FDI sector VND158.2 trillion, accounting for 25.6% and up 15.6%.
|
YoY growth of total realized social investment capital
in the first six months of
2014 - 2016
(At current prices)
Unit:%
|
|
First six months of 2014
|
First six months of 2015
|
First
Six months of
2016
|
|
Total
|
109.0
|
109.3
|
111.7
|
|
The State sector
|
110.4
|
107.8
|
106.5
|
|
The non-State sector
|
110.3
|
110.5
|
114.7
|
|
The FDI sector
|
105.1
|
109.8
|
115.6
|
|
Of the State sector’s investment capital, realized capital from the State budget in the first six months was estimated at VND107 trillion, equivalent to 42.5% of the annual plan and up 11.9% YoY, and of which:
- The centrally managed capital totaled VND23,300 billion, equivalent to 41.6% of the annual plan and up 13.9% YoY, of which the realized investment capitalof the Ministry of Transport totaled VND8,682 billion, equal to 49% of the annual plan and up 29.4% YoY; the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development VND2,274 billion, equally 35.6% and up 7.6%; the Ministry of Health VND1,408 billion, equally 46.9% and up 40.8%; the Ministry of Education and Training VND1,159 billion, equivalent to 38.3% and up 54.3%; the Ministry of Construction VND419 billion, equal to 46.5% and down 41.4%, the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment VND333 billion, equal to 39.5% and up 13.7%, the Ministry of Culture, Sports and Tourism VND235 billion, equaling 40.6% and up 0.4%, the Ministry of Industry and Trade VND186 billion, equivalent to 44.4% and up 14.4%; the Ministry of Science and Technology VND125 billion, equal to 49.8% and down 11.5%, the Ministry of Information and Communications VND49 billion, equal to 48.7% and down 42.6%.
- The locally managed capital amounted to VND83,700 billion, equal to 42.8% of the annual plan and up 11.3% YoY. Of the sum, the realized provincial State budget capital totaled VND60,00 billion, equaling 41.7% of the annual plan and up 14.7%; the district-level State budget capital VND19,600 billion, equivalent to 44.1% of the annual plan and up 5.3%; the commune-level State budget VND4,157billion, equivalent to 55.4% of the annual plan and down 3.6%. The total realized capital from the State budget of some centrally-administered provinces and cities was as follows: Hanoi recorded VND13,781 billion, equal to 45.2% of the annual plan up 38.3% YoY; Ho Chi Minh City VND7,783 billion, equivalent to 43.9% and up 3.7%; Nghe An VND2,562 billion, equal to 44.3% of the annual plan and up 11, 9%; Binh Duong VND2,337 billion, equaling 36.3% and up 39.7%; Ba Ria - Vung Tau VND2,227 billion, equivalent to 36.3% and up 4.5%; Thanh Hoa VND2,059 billion, equal to 49.9% of annual plan and up 10.1%, Vinh Phuc VND2,050 billion, equaling 38.8% of the annual plan and up 7.8%; Quang Ninh VND2,026 billion, equivalent to 31.7% of the annual plan and up 6.3%; Da Nang VND1,895 billion, equal to 43.3% of the annual plan and up 3.7%.
From the beginning of the year to June 20, 2016, as many as 1,145 FDI projects were licensed with the total registered capital of US$7,496.9 million, up 51.3% in the number of projects and 95.3% in the capital value against the same period of 2015. And as many as 535 licensed projects registered to adjust their capital with an additionally registered capital of US$3,787.8 million. Accordingly, the total registered capital of both newly and additionally registered projects amounted to US$11,284.7 million, up 105.4% against the same period last year. The realized FDI capital in the first six months of 2016 was estimated at US$7.3 billion, up 15.1% YoY.
In the first six months of the year, the processing & manufacturing industry attracted the highest FDI amount with the registered capital of US$8,064.1 million, accounting for 71.5% of the total; followed by the real estate business industry with US$604.8 million, accounting for 5.3%; professional, scientific and technological activities with US$562.3 million, capturing 5%; other industries with US$2,053.5 million, making for 18.2%.
As many as 47 centrally-administered provinces and cities reported newly-licensed FDI projects in the first six months, including Hai Phong with the highest registered capital of US$1,635.8 million, accounting for 21.8% of the total newly registered capital; followed by Ha Noi with US$927.6 million, capturing 12.4%; Binh Duong with US$721.6 million, making up 9.6%; Ho Chi Minh City with US$524.8 million, accounting for 7%; Bac Ninh with US$361 million, capturing 4.8%; Dong Nai with US$356.6 million, making up 4.8%; Tien Giang with US$328.1 million, accounting for 4.4%.
Among 54 countries and territories having newly-licensed FDI projects in Vietnam in the first six months, South Korea was the biggest investor with US$3,132.4 million poured in the country, accounting for 41.8% of the total newly registered capital, followed by Singapore with US$1,017.1 million, accounting for 13.6%; Taiwan with US$531.3 million, making up 7.1%; Japan with US$496.4 million, accounting for 6.6%; the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (China) with US$455.4 million, accounting for 6.1%; the Cayman Islands with US$273.5 million, making up 3.6%.
State budget revenues and expenditures
Total State budget revenues as of June 15, 2016 were estimated to reach VND425.6 trillion, equaling 42% of the annual estimate, of which domestic revenues totaled VND343.8 trillion, equivalent to 46.88% of the annual estimate; revenues from crude oil VND17.7trillion, equal to 32.5%; revenues from export-import balance VND63 trillion, equal to 36.6%. Revenues from crude oil and export-import were low the first six months of the year mainly due to a sharp fall in the price of crude oil and petrochemical products and the impact of the participation in free trade agreements. Of domestic revenues, a number of revenue indicators were higher than the estimate: revenues from taxes on trading, commercial activities and non-state services totaled VND70.6 trillion, equaling 49.2% of the annual estimate; revenues from FDI companies (excluding crude oil) VND68.7 trillion, equally 43.2; personal income tax VND32.2 trillion, equal to 50.6%; environmental protection tax VND18.2 trillion, equivalent to 47.4%; land use fees VND34.1 trillion, equal to 68.2%.
State budget expenditures from the beginning of the year to June 15, 2016 were estimated to reach VND508.5 trillion, equal to 39.9% of the annual estimate, of which spending on development investment amounted to VND74.5 trillion, equivalent to 29.2%; spending on economic and social development, national defense and security, state management and for the Party and mass unions VND363.4 trillion, equal to 44.1%; spending on debt and aid repayment VND68 trillion, equivalent to 43.8%.
Export and import of goods and services
Export of goods
The export turnover in May reached US$14,372 million, US$228 million lower than the estimate, of which the export value of telephones and accessories was US$165 million lower than the estimate; rice US$84 million lower; rubber US$43 million lower; cassava and cassava products US$36 million lower; fruits and vegetables US$35 million lower while the export turnover of footwear US$98 million higher than the estimate and that of electronic products, computers and components US$44 million higher than the estimate.
The export turnover in June was estimated at US$14.8 billion, up 3.0% MoM, of which the export turnover of the domestic sector totaled US$4.29 billion, up 2.4% while the export value of the FDI sector (including crude oil) amounted to US$10.51 billion, up 3.2%. Some exports reported a higher export turnover as compared with the previous month: The export value of rice rose by 30.7%; garments and textiles by 17.7%; electronic products, computers and components by 11.6%. As compared with the same period last year, the export turnover in June added 4.4%, of which the FDI sector’s export value (including crude oil) went up 5.5% while the domestic sector’s export turnover increased by 1.9%. The export turnover of some commodities increased significantly: the export value of machinery, equipment and other spare parts surged by 14.6%; that of electronic products, computers & components and footwear surged by 12.2% and 11.7%, respectively.
Generally in the first six months of this year, the export turnover was estimated at US$82.2 billion, up 5.9% YoY, of which the export value of the domestic sector reached US$23.7 billion, up 3.3%; the FDI sector (including crude oil) recorded an export turnover of US$58.5 billion, up 6.9%. If the price factor is excluded (the average export price fell by 3.85%), the export turnover totaled US$85.5 billion in the first six months, up 10.1% YoY[9].
The export turnover of certain processed or assembled increased over the same period last year: The export value of telephones and accessories reached US$17.1 billion, up 16.7% YoY; textiles and garments US$10.7 billion, up 5.1%; electronic products, computers and components US$7.9 billion, up 7.1%; footwear US$6.3 billion, up 8.8%. Some commodities reported a lower export turnover as compared to the same period last year: the export value of rice totaled US$1.3 billion, down 2.7%; crude oil US$1.1 billion, down 46.6% (down 23% in export volume); iron and steel US$832 million, down 5.2%; rubber US$530 million, down 12.3%.
Export structure in the first six months of this year was almost unchanged as compared to the same period last year: the export value of heavy industry and minerals was estimated at US$37.4 billion, increasing 6.3% YoY and accounting for 45.5% of the total export turnover (0.2 percentage points higher than the same period last year). That of light industry and handicrafts reached at US$33.5 billion, up 5.1% and accounting for 40.7% (0.3 percentage points lower than the same period last year). That of agricultural and forestry products reached US$8.3 billion, up 7.8% and accounting for 10.1% (0.2 percentage points higher). That of fishery products was estimated at US$3.1 billion, up 4.4% and accounting for 3.7% (0.1 percentage points lower).
Regarding export markets in the first six months of this year, the United States was the largest export market of Vietnam with the export value of US$17.7 billion, up 12.8% YoY, followed by the EU with US$16.3 billion, up 9.8%; China with US$9.2 billion, up 14.3%; South Korea with US$5.1 billion, up 39%. Exports to the ASEAN markets generated US$8.2 billion, down 12.6% YoY while the value of goods exported to Japan reached US$6.6 billion, down 1.3%.
Import of goods
Import turnover in May 2016 reached US$14,549 million, US$451 million lower than the estimate, of which the import value of electronic products, computers and components was US$125 million lower than the estimate; telephones and accessories US$96 million lower; fabric US$75 million lower; plastic US$66 million lower; wood and wood products US$40 million lower while that of machinery, equipment, tools and other spare parts US$175 million higher than the estimate; petroleum was $42 million higher.
The import value in June this year was estimated at US$14.9 billion, up 2.4% MoM, of which that of the domestic sector amounted to US$6.4 billion, up 1.9%; that of the FDI sector totaled US$8.5 billion, up 2.8%. As compared to the same period last year, the import value in June rose by 4.9% in June, of which that of the domestic sector went up 6.9% and the FDI sector up 3.5%. The import value of some commodities increased over the same period last year: That of electronic products, computers and components soared by 17.8%; plastic products by 21.1%; iron and steel by 11.7%; fabric by 9.2%.
Generally in the first six months of the year, the country’s import turnover totaled US$80.7 billion, down 0.5% YoY[10], of which the domestic sector’s import value reached US$33.4 billion, up 1.3% while the FDI sector’s import turnover amounted to US$47.3 billion, down 1.8%. If the price factor is excluded (the average import price was down 7.8%), the country’s import turnover totaled US$87.5 billion in the first six months, up 7.9% from the YoY[11].
The import turnover of some products decreased as compared to the same period last year: That of machinery, equipment and tools, spare parts reached US$13.1 billion, down 5.9% YoY; petroleum US$2.4 billion, down 17.5% (up 28.1% in import volume); telephones and accessories US$4.9 billion, down 7%; wood and wood products US$878 million, down 19.4%. In addition, some products reported a higher import value over the same period last year: The import turnover of electronic products, computers and components totaled US$12.5 billion, up 12.1%; fabric US$5.1 billion, up 3.5%; iron and steel US$3.8 billion, up 2.8%; textile materials, footwear US$2.6 billion, up 2.3%; other base metals reached US$2.2 billion, up 24.1%; plastic products US$2.1 billion, up 17.3%.
Regarding the import structure in the six months of this year, the import value of production materials was estimated at US$73.7 billion, decreasing by 0.6% YoY and accounting for 91.3% of the total (0.1 percentage points lower), of which the import value of machinery, equipment, tools and spare parts reached US$33.1 billion, declining 0.6% and making up 41% while that of fuels and raw materials amounted to US$40.6 billion, down 0.6% and capturing 50.3%. The import value of consumer goods in the first six months was estimated at US$7.1 billion, up 0.7% YoY and accounting for 8.7% of the total (0.1 percentage points higher).
Among the country’s import markets, China was still the largest export market in the first six months with the import value of US$23.3 billion, down 2.9%[12], followed by South Korea with US$14.9 billion, up 7.9%; the ASEAN with US$11.5 billion, down 3.4%; Japan with US$6.8 billion, down 6.3%; the EU with US$4.6 billion, down 6.5%; the United States with US$3.8 billion, up 2%.
The trade deficit in May was US$177 million [13] while the country reported an estimated trade deficit of US$100 million in June. Generally in the first six months of the year, the trade surplus amounted to US$1.5 billion, of which the domestic sector reported the trade deficit of US$9.7 billion while the FDI posted the trade surplus of US$11.2 billion. However, if commodity prices on the global market continue to fall in conjunction with the existing difficulties of the world economy and the slowdown in the demand for consumer goods in many countries, the country may find it difficult to achieve the export growth target of 10% set for the year.
Export and import of services
The service export value in the first six months of 2016 was estimated to reach US$ 6.0 billion, up 10.5% YoY, of which the travel service export turnover totaled US$ 4.1 billion, accounting for 68.1% of the total and rising by 14.3% YoY. The total service import value in the first six months of the year amounted to US$ 8.2 billion, up 4.2% YoY, of which the transportation service import value was US$ 4.2 billion, accounting for 51.5% of the total and dropping by 0.2%. The trade deficit of services in the first six months of the year was US$ 2.2 billion.
If US$4.4 billion transportation and insurance costs of imported goods that was included in the service import value are excluded, the country reported a trade surplus of about US$3.7 billion in the first six months of the year, including a goods trade surplus of US$5.9 billion and a service trade deficit of US$2.2 billion.
Price Index
Consumer price index (CPI)
The consumer price index (CPI) rose by 0.46% in June 2016 as compared to the previous month, of which transportation services recorded the highest rise of 2.99%, mainly because petroleum prices were increased on May 20, 2016 and June 4, 2016 (which made the price index of fuels to go up 6.46%, consequently increasing the CPI by about 0.27%); the price index of housing construction materials was up 0.55% as hot weather conditions raised the demand for electricity, making the price index of electricity to add 1.27% (which made the CPI to climb by 0.03%), the price of housing maintenance materials ticked up 0.14%.
Other goods and services recorded a lower or decreased CPI growth rate than the overall growth rate. The price index of food and catering services was up 0.21% (food down 0.24%; foodstuff up 0.36%); culture, entertainment and tourism up 0.18%; beverages and tobacco up 0.13%; both of apparel, headwear, footwear and household equipment & appliances and education up 0.06%; medicines and health services up 0.05% while that of posts and telecommunications dropped by 0.06%.
The CPI in June 2016 went up 2.35% YoY and added 0.39% per month. On average, the CPI in the first six months of 2016 added 1.72% YoY, which was higher than the average increase of 0.86% in the same period last year, but lower that of recent years [14]. The rise was attributable to the following main reasons: (i) the price of medical services was raised in accordance with the Joint Circular No. 37/2015/TTLT-BYT-BTC dated October 29, 2015 of the Ministry of Health and the Ministry of Finance, while some localities implemented the roadmap to increase tuition fees under the Decree No. 86/2015/ND-CP of the Government dated October 2, 2015[15]; (ii) In the first six months many long public holidays increased shopping, entertainment and recreation needs, making the price of food and foodstuff to go up. Besides, the increase in the need to purchase pork to export to China and drought and salt water intrusion in the Central Highlands, the South Central Coast and the Mekong Delta all affected food and foodstuff prices[16].
In addition to the causes of the CPI growth in the first six months, there were several factors that helped curb the CPI: (i) Although in QI, the demand for goods in the Tet Holiday increased, no large price fluctuation was reported due to lower fuel and transportation service prices and abundant goods supply; (ii) the price of necessities in the world was relatively stable with the price of some commodities, such as fuels, gas, iron and steel, fell sharply in QI. Petroleum prices plunged by 21.07%, causing transportation service prices in the first six months of 2016 to drop by 9.37% YoY and helping reducing the CPI by 0.85%; (iii) Administrative levels and sectors strengthened the inspection and control of the market and implemented policies to stabilize the price of certain necessities during the Tet Holiday.
The core inflation in June 2016 increased by 0.13% MoM and 1.88% YoY. The average core inflation in the first six months of 2016 rose by 1.80% YoY.
Gold and USD price indexes
The gold price index fell by 0.01% in June 2016 as compared to the previous month but soared by 9.67% over December 2015 and by 4.04% over the same period last year. The USD price index rose by 0.09% in June 2016 as compared to the previous month and decreased by 0.80% against December 2015 and was up 2.52% YoY.
Producer price index
The product price index (PPI) of agricultural, forestry and fishery products in QII of this year climbed up 2.17% QoQ and up 0.9% YoY, of which the IIP of agricultural products was up 2.42% QoQ and 1.35% YoY; forestry products up 0.44% and 2.83%; seafood up 1.56% and down 0.91%. Generally in the first six months of the year, the IIP of agricultural, forestry and fishery products fell by 0.46% YoY.
The IIP of industrial products in QII increased by 0.07% QoQ and slumped by 1.29% YoY, of which the IIP of mineral products declined by 2.39% QoQ and by 10.89% YoY; the processing and manufacturing industry up 0.37% QoQ and down 0.25% YoY; electric power generation and distribution up 0.39% QoQ and up 0.99% YoY; water supply and sewage treatment, up 0.35% QoQ and 1.93% YoY. Generally in the first six months of the year, the IIP of industrial products dropped by 1.15% YoY.
The price index of fuels, supplies and materials used for production in QII of this year was up 0.06% QoQ and down 1.59% YoY, of which the price index of fuels and materials used for agriculture, forestry and fishery increased by 0.94% and decreased by 4.61%; for the processing and manufacturing industry fell by 0.09% and 1.16%; for the construction industry went up 1.61% and declined by 6.09%. The price index of materials, fuels and supplies used for some industries was as follows: Agriculture, forestry and fishery up 0.65% QoQ and down 0.05% YoY; mining up 0.93% QoQ and up 1.78% YoY; the processing and manufacturing industry down 0.10% QoQ and down 2.24% YoY; electric power and steam up 0.70% and 6.71%; exploited natural water up 0.6% and 5.02%; specialized construction services up 1.01% and 3.52%; scientific and technological services up 0.15% and 1.1%. Generally, in the first six months of the year the price index of raw materials, fuels and supplies used for production decreased by 2.12% YoY.
Transportation and warehousing price indexes in QII dropped by 1.15% QoQ and by 2.35% YoY, of which the price index of passenger transportation slumped by 1.99% and 1.40%; the price index of cargo transportation decreased by 0.80% and 4.62% while the price index of warehousing and logistics services fell by 0.10% QoQ and increased 3.06% YoY. The price indexes of different modes of transport in QII were as follows: by rail down 12.86% QoQ and down 5.28% YoY; by road and bus down by 2.09% and 3.27%; by water up 0.22% and down 5.61%; warehousing and logistics services down 0.10% and up 3.06%. Generally in the first six months of the year, transportation and warehousing price indexes decreased by 2.05% YoY.
Service price indexes in QII of 2016 ticked up 0.8% QoQ and up 2.12% YoY, of which the service price index of some industries were as follow: Accommodation & catering up 0.78% and 3.23%; information and communications up 0.01% and 0.18%; education and training up 0.31% and 6.03%; health care and social assistance up 16.26% and 27.08%. Generally in the first six months of the year, service price indexes increased by 1.98% YoY.
Export and import price indexes of goods
The export price index of goods in QII rose by 0.90% QoQ and fell by 2.88% YoY, of which the export price index of agricultural products and food was up 1.72% QoQ and up 6.44% YoY; fuels up 13.38% QoQ and down 26.58% YoY; other processed and manufactured goods up 0.45% QoQ and up 1.28% YoY. The export price index of some commodities increased or decreased QoQ and YoY was as follows: Vegetables down 1.49% and down 8.50%; coffee down 4.69% and down 19.51%; crude oil up 15.61% and down 27.83%; rubber up 2.54% and down 18.00%; iron and steel down 3.18% and down 24.03%. Generally in the first six months of the year, the export price index of goods fell by 3.85% over the same period last year.
The import price index of goods in QII increased by 0.26% QoQ and decreased by 6.66% YoY, while the import price index of agricultural products and food was down 3.03% QoQ and down 8.03% YoY; fuels up 9.27% and down 29.42% YoY; other processed and manufactured products down 0.12% QoQ and down 4.46% YoY. The import price index of some commodities increased or decreased QoQ and YoY was as follows: liquefied gas up 9.32% and down 8.05%; petroleum up 9.26% and down 31.1%; rubber down 0.84% and 9.36%; wood and wood products up 2.48% and down 6.07%;computers, electronic products, telephones and accessories up 0.78% and down 2.77%. Generally in the first six months of the year, the import price index of goods plunged by 7.77% YoY.
The TOT [17] in QII of this year increased by 0.64% QoQ and was up 4.06% YoY, of which the TOT of petroleum of all kinds was down 3.61% QoQ and down 1.08% YoY; rubber up 1.69% and down 9.54%; computers, electronic products, telephones and accessories up 2.01% and up 5.43%; electric wires and cables up 1.15% and up 4.02%. Generally in the first six months, the TOT soared by 4.25% YoY.
SOCIAL ISSUES
Population, labor and employment
The average population in 2016 was estimated to be 92.70 million, up 1.08% or 987.8 thousand persons as compared to the same period last year. Of which urban population was 32.06 million persons, accounting for 34.6% of the total; rural population 60.64 million persons, making up 65.4%; male population 45.75 million persons, capturing 49.4%; female population 46.95 million persons, making up 50.6%.
The number of laborers aged 15 years old or more throughout the country as of July 1, 2015 was estimated to reach 54.4 million, 654,3 thousand persons higher than the same period of 2015, including 28.1 million male workers, accounting for 51.5% and 26.3 million female employees, making up 48.5%. Regionally, the number of laborers aged 15 years of age or more in urban areas totaled 17.5 million, accounting for 32.1% and that in rural areas was 36.9 million, making up 67.9%.
The number of employees in the working age as of this time was estimated at 47.5 million, 263.6 thousand persons as compared to the same period last year, including 25.7 million male workers, accounting for 54.1% and 21.8 million female employees, making up 45.9%. The labor force in the working age in urban areas totaled 15.9 million persons, accounting for 33.4% and that in rural was 31.6 million people, making up 66.6%.
The number of employed people aged 15 years old or more in the first 6 months of this year was estimated at 53.3 million people, including 22.5 million people working in the agriculture, forestry and fishery industry, accounting for 42.2% of the total; 13 million people in the industry and construction sector, making up 24.4%; and 17.8 million people in the service sector, capturing 33.4%.
The unemployment rate of people in the working age in QI and QII was estimated at 2.25% and 2.3%, respectively. Generally, the unemployment rate in the first six months of the year stood at 2.27%, of which the unemployment rate in urban areas was 3.18% and 1.81% in rural areas. The unemployment rate of young people (from 15-24 years of age) in the first six months was 6.83%, of which the unemployment rate of youngsters in urban and rural areas was 11.00% and 5.24%, respectively. The underemployment rate of people in the working age reached in QI and QII was estimated at 1.76% and 1.72%, respectively. Generally in the first six months, the underemployment rate among young people was 1.73% and the rate in urban and rural areas was 0.72% and 2.28%, respectively.
People’s life and social security
In six beginning months of the year, the country had 201,800 households suffering from food shortage, up 9.9% YoY or 832,600 persons facing food shortage, up 10.1%. Food shortage mainly occurred in the Northern midlands and mountainous areas, the North Central Coast, Central coastal areas, and the Central Highlands. To overcome this problem, from the beginning of the year, all administrative levels, sectors and organizations from the central to local levels provided difficult families with 14 thousand tons of grain food.
Social welfares were further prioritized. According to preliminary reports, the total funding for social welfares and poverty reduction in the first six months of 2016 reached VND4,376 billion dongs, including VND2,918 billion dongs were used to support policy beneficiaries; VND1,050 billion dongs to help poor households and VND408 billion dongs to assist other famine and social relief.
Education and training
As of the beginning of the 2015-2016 academic year, there were 14,513 preschools, representing an increase of 334 over the previous school year and 28,951 schools, an increase of 29 schools. Of the sum, there were 15,254 primary schools, showing a reduction of 23 schools against the same period last year; 10,312 secondary schools, an increase of 19 schools; 2,399 high schools, an increase of 13 schools; 597 lower secondary schools, an increase of 12 schools and 389 upper secondary schools, an increase of 8 schools. The number of preschool teachers totaled 231.9 thousand, up 7.6%; The number of school teachers was 861.3 thousand, representing an increase of 0.5%, including 396.9 thousand primary school teachers, up 1.2%; 313.5 thousand secondary school teachers, up 0.3% and 150.9 thousand high school teachers, down 0.7%. Also in the 2015-2016 school year, there were 4.0 million children entering preschools, up 6.0% over the previous year; 15.3 million school students, up 1.8%, including 7.8 million primary school students, up 3.3%; 5.1 million secondary school students, 0.8% and 2.4 million high school students, down 0.6%.
By the end of March 2016, there were 40 out of 63 centrally-administered provinces and cities satisfied preschool education standards applicable for children under five years old and all 63 centrally-administered provinces and cities completed the universalization of primary education at the right age, of which 12 those were recognized to have met second-level primary education standards.
In 2015, there were 445 universities and colleges, an increase of 9 universities/collages from the previous year, including 357 public universities/colleges and 88 private universities/colleges. The number of university and college teachers was 93.5 thousand, up 2.3% YoY, of which public university/college teachers totaled 76.1 thousand, up 2.6% and accounting for 81.4% of the total number. The number of university/college students in 2015 was 2.1 million, down 10.4% over the previous year. The number of university/college graduates was 353.6 thousand, down 20%. Also in 2015, there were 110,300 postgraduates, up 7.4% YoY and 5,500 medical trainees, up 2.3%.
The number of specialized secondary schools in 2015 was 303, representing a reduction of 10 schools as compared with the previous year, including 175 public specialized secondary schools and 128 private ones. The number of teachers at specialized secondary schools totaled 10,200, down 6.5% while the number of specialized secondary school students was 153,800, down 1.1%.
Epidemic diseases and food poisoning
In June, there were 4.5 thousand cases of hand, foot and mouth disease nationwide; 6.6 thousand cases of dengue (03 deaths); 35 cases of typhoid; 141 cases of viral encephalitis; 05 cases of meningococcal meningitis (02 deaths). Generally, in the first six months of the year, there were more than 16,300 cases of hand, foot and mouth disease nationwide; 39,300 cases of dengue (12 deaths); 135 cases of typhoid; 284 cases of viral encephalitis (04 deaths); 24 cases of meningococcal meningitis (03 deaths).
The total number of living HIV-infected people in the country as of June 17, 2016 was 228,200, of which 85,800 cases turned AIDS. The number of people died of AIDS nationwide as of that time was 87,600.
In June, the country recorded as many as 18 cases of food poisoning, infecting 332 people. From December 17, 2015 to June 17, 2016, the country had 53 cases of serious food poisoning, infecting 2,187 people, including 4 deaths.
Cultural and sport activities
Several cultural activities were carried out in the first six months to celebrate major public holidays, important events of the country and the success of the XIIth National Party Congress, the general election of deputies to the National Assembly and all-level People's Councils for the 2016-2021 tenure. Cultural activities were organized in different forms to ensure their practicality, meaning and cost-efficiency and create an exciting and joyful atmosphere among the people. Festival management was prioritized to promote the positive effects of traditional festivals and in accordance with the cultural traditions of the nation and inspections were done to detect and deal with festivals that showed violations or failed to ensure security and environmental sanitation.
In the first six months of the year, the sports sector continued to maintain and promote the national campaign “All people do physical exercise following Uncle Ho’s example” with the main aim of holding the "Olympic Run Day 2016 for people’s health”. The sector coordinated with ministries, branches and localities in organizing the Child Drowning Prevention Action Plan in the 2016 – 2020 period and the Phu Dong Ninth Sports Festival in some regions. Many public physical exercise and sport activities were organized to create a joyful atmosphere during the festivals and the Tet Holiday.
Traffic accidents
In June (from May 16 to June 15), the country recorded 1,853 traffic accidents, including 876 less or more serious traffic accidents and 977 collisions, killing 774 people; injuring 503 and hurting 1,097 others. As compared with the same period last year, the number of traffic accidents was down 0.4% (the number of traffic accidents rose by 0.9% while the number of collisions fell by 1.6%); the number of deaths increased by 4.2%; the number of injured people dropped by 7.5% and the number of slightly injured people was down 2.7%.
Generally in the first six months of 2016, as many as 10,227 traffic accidents, including 5,039 less or more serious traffic accidents and 5,188 collisions, killing 4,362 people, injuring 2,906 and wounding 6,033 others. As compared to the same period last year, the number of traffic accidents in the first six months of 2016 plumped by 8.5% (the number of less or more serious traffic accidents fell by 2.4% while the number of traffic collisions declined by 13.8%) and the number of deaths and injureds both decreased by 2.6% while the number of slightly wounded people decreased by 15.8%. On average, as many as 56 traffic accidents were reported a day nationwide, including 28 less or more serious traffic accidents and 28 traffic collisions, killing 24 people, injuring 16 and hurting 33 others.
Damage caused by natural disasters
In the first six months of 2016, extreme and damaging cold spells, rainstorms and tornadoes affected production activities and people's life in many provinces and cities across the country. According to preliminary reports, calamities [18] caused 34 people dead or missing; 118 people injured; more than 900 houses collapsed and washed away; 35,700 houses flooded, blown off or unroofed; 19.6 thousand hectares of rice, 13,000 hectares of vegetables and 2,000 hectares of aquatic farming damaged; 17,000 animals, 12,7000 fowls and more than 730 tons of aquatic species dead. The most affected localities included Son La with nine people dead and missing, 22 others injured, 5,300 houses collapsed, washed away or unroofed, 323 hectares of rice and vegetables damaged; Thanh Hoa with 7.4 thousand hectares of rice and vegetables damaged, more than 1,000 animals and nearly 200 tons of aquatic specifies dead; Yen Bai with 3 people dead and missing, 14 others injured, 4,900 houses collapsed, washed away or unroofed, 1,100 hectares of rice and vegetables damaged and 1,400 animals dead; Lao Cai with 3 people dead or missing and nearly 600 houses collapsed, washed away or unroofed, more than 1,000 hectares of rice and vegetables damaged, 1,800 animals dead. The total value of damage in the first six months was estimated at VND1.4 trillion, including VND323 billion in Thanh Hoa, VND 282 billion in Yen Bai and VND102 billion in Lao Cai.
Particularly, drought and severe salinization in the Southern central region, the Central Highlands, the Southeast and the Mekong Delta, which peaked in March, April and early May, heavily affected production activities and people’s life in these localities. In late May and early June, as rain began in some regions across the country, the drought and saltwater intrusion crisis started showing signs of decline. The phenomenon basically ended in the Central Highlands, the Southeast and the Mekong Delta while the Southern central region was still under the influence of drought and therefore a large part of the rice growing area was left abandoned. By the end of May 2016, as many as 385,800 households suffers from water shortage and 249,900 hectares of rice, 19,000 hectares of vegetables, 30,500 hectares of fruit trees and 6,900 hectares of aquatic farming were damaged. The total value of damage was estimated at VND15.2 trillion. To cope with the impact of the drought and saltwater intrusion phenomenon, the Government and ministries directed and implemented a series of urgent measures such as providing the affected localities with VND2.2 trillion, distributing medicines for disease prevention and water treatment for locals; transporting and supplying clean water for those suffering from water shortage; instructing farmers to switch to other crops and livestock species suitable for the weather conditions; upgrading and dredging canals, irrigation works and building temporary dams to prevent saltwater intrusion.
Environmental protection and fire prevention
In June, as many as 1,599 violations of the regulations on environmental protection were detected, of which 484 cases were handled with a total fine of more than VND11 billion. Generally, in the first six months of the year, 5,200 violations of the regulations on environmental protection were found, of which 2,501 cases were enforced with a total fine of over VND391 billion.
In June, the country recorded 274 fires and explosions, killing 12 people and injuring 38 others with the total value of damage of VND134billion. In the first six months of the year, the country had 1,826 fires and explosions, killing 46 persons and injuring 191 others with the total value of damage of VND860 billion.
Generally, despite the difficulties and challenges confronting the country in the first six months of 2016, positive changes, including macroeconomic stability and controlled inflation, were noticed. Good foreign currency reserves were maintained while the lending rate tended to decrease and credit growth was reported. The improved investment and business environments helped attract foreign direct investment. Labor, employment, social security issues were prioritized and positive results were made. However, in spite of these important achievements, the local economy faced numerous difficulties and challenges: the growth rate showed signs of a slowdown and though inflation remained under control, but it might go higher. Forest fires and deforestation were on the rise. People in localities affected by drought, saltwater intrusion and marine environmental pollution struggled with many difficulties.
To fulfill the socio-economic development objectives of 2016 and create momentum for the successful implementation of the Five-year Socio-economic Development Plan for the 2016-2020 period, in time to come, administrative levels, sectors and localities should continue to follow the measures set out in of the Resolution No. 01/NQ-CP dated January 7, 2016 of the Government on major tasks and solutions guiding and directing the realization of the Plan for Socio-economic Development and State Budget Estimate in 2016 and the directions given by the Prime Minister and focus on the following major tasks:
Firstly, continuing to implement an active and flexible monetary policy and manage interest rates in line with exchange rate movements of the international and local money markets. Creating favorable conditions and providing funds for prioritized fields such as agriculture, rural areas and small and medium-sized enterprises to promote production and business activities in an efficient way. Strengthening and effectively carrying out measures to prevent tax losses & transfer pricing and reduce tax arrears; preventing smuggling, trade fraud, tax evasion. Closely controlling public spending and cutting regular expenditures.
Secondly, focusing on solving problems confronting enterprises and finding solutions to recover the growth of the industry sector, especially the export processing industry. Enhancing the growth of supporting industries and processing & manufacturing industries in combination with the development of material sources for agriculture, forestry and fishery. Continuing to implement the planned restructuring and equitization of State-owned enterprises as scheduled in an open and transparent manner. Speeding up the progress of investment projects in the industry sector to improve production capacity.
Thirdly, promoting agricultural restructuring in conjunction with the building of a new countryside, focusing on shifting the agricultural production structure to adapt and overcome the inadequacies caused by climate change. Strengthening scientific and technological applications in terms of seedling, irrigation, tools and production techniques to promote sustainable agricultural production, especially in centralized goods producing areas. Focusing on implementing the summer-autumn and autumn-winter crop production plans for 2016 and expeditiously restoring aquatic farming, fishing activities and seafood consumption in the provinces affected by the abnormal massive fish deaths.
Fourthly, encouraging and speeding up the export of competitive commodities and goods that have stable export markets. Intensifying trade promotion, searching for and expanding export markets, especially the country’s major agricultural exports. Well forecasting the international and local markets and making market information available in a timely manner, thoroughly understanding and proactively working out measures to overcome technical barriers. Actively and effectively implementing international integration commitments, especially within the ASEAN Community framework, the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and other free trade agreements.
Fifthly, implementing social security and social welfare policies. Effectively carrying out the national target program on sustainable poverty reduction. Continuing to providing supports for those affected by natural disasters, drought, saltwater intrusion and the recent massive fish kills to overcome the consequences and stabilize their life and production activities as soon as possible./.
THE GENERAL STATISTICS OFFICE
[1] The GDP growth rate in the first six months of 2012, 2013 and 2014 was 4.93%; 4.90%; 5.22%, respectively.
[2] The growth rate of the added value of the construction industry was up 0.11% in in the first six months of 2011; up 2.41% in 2012; up 5.06% in 2013; up 6.11% in 2014 and up 7.66% in 2015.
[3] The growth rate of the added value of the service sector rose by 6.11% in the first six months of 2012; by 6.13% in 2013; by 5.82% in 2014 and by 5.86% in 2015.
[4] The growth rate of the real estate business industry was up 0.3% in the first six months of 2011; down 0.75% in 2012; up 0.76% in 2013; up 1.87% in 2014 and up 2.35% in 2015.
[5] Fishing production of Ha Tinh in the first six months of the year decreased by 16,000 ton (down 6%); Quang Binh by 23,600 tons (down 8.7%); Quang Tri by 16,000 tons (down 14.3%), Thua Thien - Hue by 13,300 tons (down 30%).
[6] The IIP in the first six months of 2015 soared by 9.7% as compared to the same period of the previous year (up 9.3% and 10.2% in QI and QII, respectively), of which the IIP of the mining industry climbed up 8.4%; the processing and manufacturing industry up 10%; electric power generation and distribution up 11.4%; water supply and waste & sewage treatment up 6.9%.
[7] Source: The National Business Registration System – the Ministry of Planning and Investment.
[8] As compared with the same period last year, the number of newly-established enterprises in the first six months of 2015 increased by 21.7% while the registered capital was up 22.3%.
[9] If the price factor was excluded, the export turnover surged 13.3% YoY in the first six months of 2015.
[10] The import value in the first six months of 2015 rose by 17.1% YoY.
[11] If the price factor was excluded, the import turnover in the first six months of 2015 soared by 21.5% YoY.
[12] The trade deficit with China in the first six months of the year was estimated at US$14.1 billion, down 11.5% YoY.
[13] The trade deficit was estimated to reach US$400 million.
[14] The average YoY growth of CPI was up 20.34% in the first six months of 2008; up 10.27% n 2009; up 8.75% in 2010; up 16.03% in 2011; up 12.20% in 2012; up 6.73% in 2013; up 4.77% in 2014.
[15]The price index of healthcare services surged by 23.14%, increasing the CPI in the first six months of the year by 0.86% while the 4.47 increase in the price index of educational services raised the CPI by 0.22%.
[16] The price index of food and catering services increased by 2.03% YoY on average in the first six months, increasing the CPI by 0.71%.
[17] The export price index against the import price index of goods.
[18] Not to mention the damage caused by severe drought and saltwater intrusion in the southern central region, the Central Highlands, the Southeast and the Mekong Delta.
Ministry of Planning and Investment